저자: Aristotle Money Show · 외국인
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but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock to cover 26 to 16 and then it can contend what would you do when it went to nine what would you do in one day what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now you flip a coin you're walking around the block what do you do you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls 10 are those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the Market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's gonna go down sometimes if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens you like a socket 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet and they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these two points they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen there'll be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times so you can take advantage of the volatility Market if you understand what you're on a couple rules I want to throw and I find use because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how much further going to go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record it ever gets below 100 just buy every share and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18.
this is coming with no debt I mean it was just so overpriced it went down I did the same thing in my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from 26 this year to 16. I said how much longer can it go it's 16. so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange at Kaiser Industries at 14 I said you know it's number 26 to 60 how much more can I go well at 10 I called my mother and said Mom you go to uh look at this Kaiser Industries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10.
well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and I ended up fortunate to sound rapidly I would probably be still cattying or working at the Stop and Shop but I it happened fast I was able to set it was compressed and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns forty percent of Kaiser steel they own forty percent of Kaiser Aluminum they own 32 percent of guys of cement you know Kaiser broadcast and Kaiser sand gravel cosmet Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt It's Tricky some people can approach that and so it's a real achievement they had no debt and the whole company at 3u was selling it about 75 million at that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but I said everything's fine and eventually this will work out what they did is they gave away all their shares and their shareholds they passed out shares and kind of cement passed out chairs aluminum the best of the public shares and Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share but if you didn't understand the company if you is buying on the fact the stock that got from 26 to 16 and then again 10 what would you do when it went to nine what would you do when I went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block what do you do are you concerned about the volatility in the financial markets today do you think something needs to be done to reduce I love volatility I think I remember when uh 1972 the market went from down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to 1 at no debt they never had a restaurant close I started buying at seven but I kept on to it and it went to one was the largest position in Magellan in 1978 and was bought out by forty two dollars by Pepsi Cola I think it would have gone to 400 if they'd buy it out I think volatility is terrific I think these calls are very important I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next is a good thing for the public I think that's not a very good thing but I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the Market's going to go up and down over the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25 000 years and some of them will come out of left field Market will go down or Mark will go outside volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand what they own they can own mutual funds try to feral mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basically corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year historically so corporate profits double about every nine years the stock market ought to double about every nine years so I think the next Mark is about 3 800 today 3700 I'm pretty convinced the next 3800 points will be up it won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points I know which way to go so the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years it ought to double again in the 89 years after that because profits will go up eight percent a year and stocks will follow that's all there is to it October has always been a special month I remember in 1987.
I was very convinced the market was in no trouble and I didn't worry about things and Carol and I had planned this great golf vacation to Ireland where visit one course and save a little house and there's another go all along the west coast of Ireland and play golf and we left on a Thursday night the market went down 55 points that day which was not too good the next day we got to Ireland because of the time difference we complete our day and I got back hotel and I called in the market had gone down 112 on Friday I said to Carolyn uh you know I think if the if the Mark goes down on Monday uh you know we're gonna have to go back and so we might as well we stayed there for the weekend and on Monday the market went down 508 points and my fund went from 12 billion to 8 billion that gets your attention to two working days you know I said man by the end of this week I'd have no fun now there wasn't a lot I could do I mean here I was on Monday because the market didn't open by 12 o'clock it was in Ireland it was still uh seven o'clock in New York so we did spend that day and we played around golf the morning then we went somewhere and so watched the market temperature right I did come back there wasn't nothing I could do I think my shareholders they called up and they said what's Lynch doing they say well he's on the sixth hole and he's uh you know he's even parked now but he's in a trap this could be you know this could be a triple bogey here this could be a it could be a big inning I don't think I don't think that's exactly what they want to hear so I could do something about it so I came back home and separated everybody else unfortunately I was very consistent the market went down when I ran Magellan on 13 years the market went down nine times and every time Mark went down Magellan went down I was nine for nine you know because it's very important there's another one of these numbers you got to write down if you put a thousand dollars in a stock all you can lose is a thousand I've done that several times but if you're right you can make five thousand ten thousand points so this business you don't have to be right one or two times you could be right one out of four times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job you add to it or at least you don't sell it terrible tragic you can make more money on the upside so I just I just wrote those out and I'll Now flip a coin to tell you where the market will go to 4 000 this year or next year the heads means it goes up is a 200 coin the market will go up on the next year that's all I ever know about the stock you'll be very pleased in 10 20 30 years stocks will beat the hell out of money markets you can beat the hell out of bonds this is important whether you're investing for a four-year-old a 14 year old or 74 year old you have to say what am I going to do when the market goes down because I've had audiences like this large audiences and I'll say how many people in the room are short-term investors I've never had anybody ever raise their hand I mean everybody in the world is a long-term investor
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