저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2022년 11월 영상은 버핏의 발언을 인용·분석하며 테슬라와 자동차 산업의 구조적 한계를 논한다. 전기차 전환은 이미 진행 중이나 기존 차량 보유량과 평균 차령(11~12년)을 고려하면 세계 차량 구조를 단기간에 바꾸기 어렵다는 주장. 2030년 연간 판매 1,700만 대 가정 시 전기차 비중이 약 3분의 1 수준일 것이라는 계산이 제시됨. 버핏은 테슬라 투자 여부에 대해 직접적 답을 피하며 긍정적 요소는 인정하나 투자 대상으로는 선호하지 않는 취지. 자동차 회사의 보험업 진출 가능성에 회의적이며 진보(Progressive)를 더 경계해야 한다고 언급. 온라인 판매 확대는 경쟁 요인이지만 자동차 딜러를 완전히 파괴하지는 않을 것이라는 견해. 브랜드는 해자(moat)라는 전통적 관점을 옹호하며 머스크의 '해자는 시대에 뒤떨어졌다'는 발언에 반박. 다만 혁신 속도가 빨라져 해자가 공격받기 쉬워졌다는 점은 인정. 자동차 사업은 진입이 어렵고 승자가 계속 바뀌므로 애플이 테슬라를 인수해 전기차 사업에 진출하는 것은 나쁜 아이디어라고 평가. 비트코인은 과거 '쥐약(rat poison)'으로 불렸으며 이 입장이 바뀌었는지 질문이 제기됨.
다듬은 글
so let me take Warren Buffett for example Andrea totally Frank I'm not his biggest fan oh I've heard of that the future that they are the future over time but you can't change the world the base of the world I mean you've got 260 million vehicles on the road or whatever number it is in the United States and I don't know how many around the world they're not changing what they use tomorrow you know the average age of the American vehicle the auto I think is 11 to 12 years something like that the world can't change dramatically if anybody thinks you can change energy sources 10 of the year it just doesn't work that way but the world is going in the right direction in terms of working toward minimization of carbon speaking of those cars I mean look at Tesla and what Elon Musk is doing I mean that kind of is a revolution right well it's an important change but if you guessed on the penetration of electric cars let's say we say 17 million or something a year in 2030 when I'll be 100.
I'd be surprised if more than a third of those would be electric so of total vehicles on the road still might be 10 to Electric tops or something like that worldwide you can't change this mass of Transportation it is changing it should change but in terms of just the math of replacing if we said we're going to jump all the cars we have the economy would stop I mean we can't produce we couldn't replace it what do you think of Elon Musk though if you met him and would you invest in Tesla well I think you're trying to make me a lot I don't know you say no no and no or yes it's got some remarkable things okay have you met him oh yeah he's he uh he joined the giving pledge some years ago that I've only met him once or twice but I've talked with him not for quite a while and would you invest in Tesla no Elon Musk says the Tesla will start to offer insurance for its cars and can price it better than a typical insurance company because of the data it collects from all the vehicles on at the road you've talked about the threat of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business but what about the threat to Geico of automobile companies themselves getting into the insurance business and on a very similar topic Tesla recently announced that they're shifting to an online only sales model and several traditional auto dealerships are also reducing their Property Holdings as car buyers increasingly use smartphones in the internet to shop for cars what does this pretend for Berkshire Hathaway Automotive actually General Motors had a company for a long time called Motors insurance company various companies have tried a success of the auto companies getting an insurance business are probably about as likely as the success of the insurance companies getting into the auto business I worry much more about Progressive than all of the auto company possibilities that I could see in terms of getting Insurance business it's not an easy business I would bet against any company in the auto business being any kind of a out of an unusual success the idea of using telematics in terms of studying people's drivers that's spreading quite widely it is important to have data on how people drive how hard they break how much they swore all kinds of things so I don't doubt the value of the data but I don't think the auto companies will have any any advantage to that I don't think they'll make money in the insurance business using the internet to shop for cars is like using in order for shopping for everything it's another competitor people will look for better ways now the gross margin on new cars is about six percent or they're about they're not lots of room in the game but that will be a method and that will sell some cars and it's another competitor but I don't think it it destroys the auto dealer who takes good care of the customers it's not an overwhelming threat but it's obviously something that's going to be around and we'll sell some cars if you look at the leading candy bars for example for the last 50 years I think you'll find Snickers on top and then you've got M M's you got two types so they don't combine the the penis with that ones but I think they're numbered two and four and Hershey's in their number three or something in the store I can't take them on you know I don't think Eli can take them on they have mulch when you go into a a drugstore uh 7-Eleven or something and you say I would like a Snickers bar the owner says oh I've got something the mush bar at 10 cents off the Snickers bar you say give me the Snickers and if he doesn't give you the Snickers you go across the street and buy the stickers he Brands brands are moats I mean obviously this product is selling to hundreds of millions of people who want Coca-Cola if you say I'll sell you something for two cents less or I've got some celebrity's name on it Richard Branson tried virgin Cola in the United States about 15 or 20 years ago million others have been tried so I don't really have the same urge to produce automobiles that he apparently has to produce candy but I don't suggest that he take on stickers you're taking me literally and stepping away from the real story here which is kind of this war of words between you and Charlie and Elon do you even know Elon Musk ever said anything to everybody I mean you're debating me a little bit to do it but I am people like this car and everything but somebody mentioned that now he's talking about financing I thought I heard that earlier yes well actually Andrew just read some headlines where it looked like they may be Tesla maybe going back to Market to pick up some additional financing I'm not entirely sure all I heard was the headline that's what I call the counter Revelation because I think it was just a few days ago they said they wouldn't need financing you know he's trying something to improve a product and I I salute him for that and the American public will decide whether it's a success it's not easy it's probably easier to develop a new car this could be with stickers but some products have terrific models probably Elmer's Glue does you know WD-40 there's just certain things that you are not much inclined to be dissatisfied with and see and I would say that incidentally that the iPhone has a terrific mode people that have an iPhone or maybe have some other phone but they want to continue with a product that they've got they want the new version it's just easier for them they learn how to do everything and their life's built around it and all of that mulch are very useful Costco has a mold in people's mind Amazon can raise the price of Prime 20 you can't do that unless you've built something within that image of the Amazon Prime just based on reality that you're going to get a lot for your money and you're going to want to use it and then you can raise prices twenty dollars but if you're selling some commodity product you can't do that you need a mode Elon Musk this week on its Tesla earnings call said the following quote I think moats are lame they are like nice in a sort of quaint vestigial way and if your only defense against invading armies is a mode you will not last long what matters is the pace of innovation that is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness unquote so Warren it seems the world has changed business is getting more competitive pace of innovation technology is impacting everything is Elon Wright Elon says a conventional mode is quaint and that's true of a bottle of water and he says that the best mode would be to have a big competitive position that is also right it's ridiculous one does not intend to build an actual mode even though acquaint yeah certainly a great number of businesses has always been true but it does seem like it the pace is accelerated and so on in recent years been more moats that have been susceptible to Invasion that seem to be the case earlier but there's always been the attempt to do it here and there there are probably places where the motor is as strong as ever but certainly should be working at improving your own mode and Defending Your Own mode all the time Elon may turn things upside down in in some areas I don't think he'd want to take us on any candy you can look at something like for animals out there in the other room and it won't be technology that takes away the business and and granibles it may be something else that catches the young kids fantasy or something but being the low-cost producer for example is a terribly important well that's something like Geico technology is really not brought down the cost that much and a couple of companies that have cost as low as ours but among big companies we are a low-cost producer and that is not bad when you're selling them essential item okay Greg Apple has been suggested by some analysts who are pretty smart that they should get into the electric vehicle business and maybe do so by buying Tesla you and Charlie Munger your Vice chair did this years ago with byd buying electric vehicle and electric battery company would you suggest that or would you support it if they bought it because but I think it would be a very poor idea to go into the auto business it's not an easy business incidentally the auto business is different than some but if you're a premier with Google on search or your Premier movies on Netflix whatever there's a huge first mover and size Network effect and all that working for you you can win an Autos one year and you lose the next I mean you've got a dozen big companies out there with resources they're going to keep coming they copy what you do people move from one year to another you don't worry about the fact that your whole life is on the iPhone as opposed to you know what your whole life into being one car it does not give you a permanent Advantage the always colorful Elon Musk the CEO got into little trouble recently if one of your CEOs did an Elon Musk type of tweet I'm ongoing private of course they wouldn't go private but they revealed something they shouldn't have how would you have handled that if you misspeak you correct it immediately and if you've got a stock that's trading like crazy you can come on three minutes later and don't say I misspoke when I said lending security I meant to say I really think I can get funding Bitcoin you and Charlie have told Fox Business and made news calling it rat poison rat poison squared has anything changed to make you take a second look it will come real bad at me
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