저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
미중 무역협상 타결 여부는 이미 신흥시장 투자자들에게 상당 부분 선반영된 상태라고 봄. 중국 제조업체들이 미국 제재를 피해 베트남·방글라데시·터키 등으로 생산을 옮기고 있으며, 이 재배치는 수개월~1년 걸리지만 예상보다 빠를 수 있어 미국 소비자 영향은 생각보다 크지 않을 것이라는 전망. 다만 중국을 대체할 국가들은 중국 수준의 규모와 노동력을 갖추지 못했고, 기술 부품 상당수가 중국·대만에서만 조달되므로 일부 품목에는 영향이 있음. 중국은 환율 조정과 가격 조정으로 대응하고 있어 수입·수출 기업 모두 충격이 있을 것이라고 평가. 향후 5년간 미중 관계는 좋지 않을 것이며 긴장이 계속될 것이라고 전망. 남중국해, 일대일로, 아프리카 투자, 기술 이전 문제 등이 원인이며, 미국의 민주당·공화당 모두 대중 강경 기조에 동의하지만 양국은 서로 필요로 해 결국 어느 정도 합의에 이를 것이라고 봄. 미국에 노출된 다국적 기업은 특히 어려움을 겪을 수 있음. 나이키 사례처럼 미국 소비자의 진보적 가치관과 중국 국가·소비자 요구를 동시에 맞추기 어렵다고 언급. 기업의 장기 전략으로는 생산기지를 인도 등으로 옮기고, 인도를 중국처럼 큰 시장으로 보아야 한다고 제시. 1인당 소득 차이는 크지만 중국을 완전히 포기할 수는 없으므로 중국과의 사업을 유지하되 공급처와 시장을 다변화해야 한다고 결론. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
one of the biggest factors that are affecting emerging market investors right now is whether or not we get a trade deal. The trade deal is now fully discounted by emerging market investors. Do you think so? I think so. There have been a lot of adjustments taking place. You must remember that many Chinese manufacturers have moved overseas in order to escape US sanctions. In other words, they'll move to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey, wherever they can get low-cost manufacturing and still export to the US. This doesn't happen overnight. It takes months, sometimes a year, but it could happen much faster than people think. So a lot of it has already been pretty much discounted, and I believe the impact on the American consumer is not going to be as big as people think, because of this rearrangement of manufacturing.
One of the issues with this shift away from China is that none of those countries have the same scale that China has in its labor force to handle all of the goods the world demands. Would a fragmented system, with things spread out between Vietnam, Bangladesh, and all the other countries, be enough to bring a little more price stability to the trading market for some products?
No. If you look at the kind of technology China is producing, it requires millions of parts that are only sourced in China or maybe in Taiwan. So this will be a factor for some of these goods. But you must remember that the Chinese have adjusted the exchange rate, and many manufacturers have also adjusted their pricing. So there will be a hit for the people importing and the people exporting, and they'll be able to adjust according to the exchange rate. In other words, this is not going to happen overnight. Particularly when we're talking about technical things, it will be more difficult for them to move production to another country.
I'm curious about your thoughts, not so much on the actual physical goods and services we're talking about, but on the relationship between the US and China. Yesterday we had a speech by Vice President Mike Pence, and a somewhat of a reply from the Chinese government. What do you see as the future relationship between the US and China, say over the next five years?
It's not going to be good. Going forward, there's going to be a lot of tension, and I believe that's for many, many reasons. As you know, there are the South China Sea, the Belt and Road, concerns about what China is doing in Africa, and of course most importantly, technology transfer. So it's going to be touch and go, and difficult going forward. The interesting thing about the US political situation is that both the Democrats and the Republicans seem to agree that they've got to be tougher on China. But at the end of the day, both countries need each other, and something will be worked out, but it's not going to be easy. It could be difficult if you're running a big multinational in the United States that has exposure to China.
The vice president raised Nike yesterday. The NBA is another obvious example that stands out at the moment. How do you satisfy your US customers, with their more liberal attitudes, and the Chinese state and Chinese consumers? Can you do both?
Of course, it's very, very difficult. But the first thing they've got to do is move some of the manufacturing out, particularly to India. Move production out of China and into India, and look at India as a big market, just as China is a big market. Of course, per capita incomes are very, very different between the two countries, but that's where they have to look from a long-term perspective. Of course, they can't write off China. China is still going to be very, very important, and they've got to make adjustments to the situation, and hopefully convince American politicians to go easy so that they can continue doing business. But at the end of the day, they've got to diversify their sources and their markets.
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