저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 연준이 저금리로 만든 거품이 터지기 시작했다고 보며, 금리 인하는 잘못이고 결국 더 큰 금융위기와 달러 붕괴로 이어진다고 주장한다. 연준은 이번 주 금리 인하가 확실시되지만 이는 필요한 정리 과정을 막는 실수라고 지적한다. 연준이 레포 시장에 약 530억~750억 달러를 투입한 것은 거품 붕괴의 신호라는 입장이다. 그는 연준이 제로금리와 양적완화(마이너스 금리까지 포함)로 복귀할 것이라 보며, 이는 실패하고 달러 및 법정화폐 체제를 파괴할 것이라고 예상한다. 미국 30년물 국채 금리가 2% 수준에 불과해 장기물 시장이 가장 큰 위험 지점이며, 그 붕괴는 언제든 일어날 수 있다고 경고한다. JP모건 귀금속 데스크 트레이더들의 스푸핑 기소 건에 대해서는, 금값 억제 목적의 조작이라기보다 단순 이익 추구 때문이었다고 본다. 금 가격이 낮은 이유는 투자자들이 연준과 중앙은행을 신뢰하기 때문이며, 금 상승은 금본위제로의 회귀를 예고한다는 입장이다. 이 과정에서 디폴트와 파산이 줄줄이 나올 것이며, 정직한 화폐인 금으로의 회귀가 최종 결과가 될 것이라고 전망한다.
다듬은 글
and joining us now to discuss interest rates metals and all your favorite topics is Peter Schiff of euro pacific capital peter welcome back and there's so much to get to since we last spoke but including oil but i want to start by getting your take on the latest Federal Reserve news breaking Tuesday afternoon an interest rate cut is of course expected at this week's Open Market Committee seems like a fait accompli but in the meantime The Wall Street Journal says the Fed reportedly had to take action to keep the federal funds rate in their target range with fifty three billion dollars and repurchase agreements Fox Business and other outlets say it was closed more closer to a seventy five billion dollar intervention diagram the mechanism of this intervention for us and what are the implications of this Fed action moving forward well first of all I think the financial media and Wall Street is being must too complacent about what's happening in their there their instinct is to sweep it under the rug is no big deal but I think it really is the harbinger of what's to come because you know the Federal Reserve has been artificially suppressing interest rates particularly since the o.8 financial crisis and by keeping interest rates artificially low they have created a bubble that's much bigger than the one that popped in 2008 and what happened this morning is that you could see the air coming out of that bubble because the market is trying to bring interest rates higher because we have no real savings in this country we have enormous debt everybody is levered up to the max government the private sector business consumers because rates have been so low we borrowed so much money the market wants interest rates to be higher but the Fed doesn't want to allow that to happen because the role the road back to normal interest rates is a very bumpy one because it's gonna take us right through another financial crisis so the Fed is trying to keep interest rates artificially low and they almost lost control of it this morning now it you know they created what 50 70 billion dollars out of thin air to supply the credit that the market needed but what happens next time what happens if we need a hundred billion what happens if we need a trillion because eventually we will eventually the Fed has to choose between destroying the dollar and allowing the market to bring interest rates level that makes sense for an economy with this much debt and then all hell breaks loose because we have a much worse financial crisis than the one we had in o8 hmm huh take there and on the feds Fmoc meeting coming up you've been in the consensus that pretty much everyone expects another rate is coming but you think that's definitely not a good thing in your view what are your thoughts right now as they prepare to go further into arguably unprecedented territory for monetary policy this week well yeah the Fed definitely should not be cutting interest rates now the economy is going into a recession but the cure for what ails us is not lower interest rates we need to go through this recession and higher interest rates are part of the cleansing process is painful as that process is now going to be but the Federal Reserve has no stomach for doing what's right so they will cut interest rates because that's what the you know the Attucks on Wall Street demand so we're not going to have a real recovery we're just gonna try to maintain this bubble but I don't think it's gonna work I mean I do think the Fed is going back to zero I think they're going back to quantitative easing they may even go negative who knows they're gonna throat me to put everything out there including the kitchen sink to try to prevent interest rates from rising to try to prevent this bubble from deflating but they are going to fail hmm and staying on this theme today you tweeted an item with an eye grabbing headline titled a very violent move in the bond market tell us about that violent move what we just discussed it a little bit earlier today as far as in the short end but you know I am expecting a more violent move from the long end of the bond market I mean that is where the biggest part of the bubble is I mean thirty-year US Treasuries are barely above 2% I mean who in their right mind would loan government the US government money for 30 years you're not getting your money back for 30 years and all you're gonna get is 2% coupons for the next 30 years waiting to get repaid look at the price of gold moving above 1,500 that's a very good sign that the people who are waiting to get their money back 30 years from now aren't going to get very much of anything as far as purchasing power so that is where the real danger is when the long end of the market really starts to implode and you know that could happen any day I mean it probably won't happen tomorrow but one of these days it will happen tomorrow mm-hmm and speaking of implosion than where people go in situations like that on gold there has been some crime blotter material from the metals market this week again from JP Morgan three more traders in their metals desk including the former head of the desk were charged with spoofing that's fraudulent and deceptive orders to manipulate metals prices between 2008 and 2016 and they were charged under the US RICO statute which is an organized crime law which is interesting they also faced a federal class-action lawsuit over their actions and Silver's futures has this story market manipulation played out within the sector or at JP Morgan or could we see more similar scandals in the future well you know I don't know and I know a lot of people in the gold market have long believed that it was manipulation that was responsible for the suppression of the price of gold that somehow gold would have been much higher but for manipulation of banks like JP Morgan and maybe some of those people are feeling vindicated based on this news but I don't think this type of manipulation is what those people had in mind when they were thinking about keeping the price of gold and silver down I mean I don't know that that was the goal of manipulation it seems like they were just manipulating markets to try to make more profits for themselves and I don't know that they cared which direction the market moved as long as they made money off of those movements and so they tried to manipulate the markets to their own advantage I don't think this is why the price of gold is not much higher I think it's not much higher because too many investors don't understand what's going on they know they have confidence in the Federal Reserve other central banks they believe in this bubble they are as fooled now as they were going into the 2008 financial crisis the difference was they were bailed out last time as wrong as all the experts were on Wall Street and you know in other countries who couldn't see an obvious crisis coming when they were blindsided their pals at the Federal Reserve and other central banks were able to bail them out it's not gonna work this time it doesn't mean the central banks won't try but as I said it won't succeed they're going to destroy the dollar in the process maybe bring down the entire Fiat monetary system and gold is already rising gold is telling you that on the ashes of this old system we are gonna resurrect the gold standard because that's what we had prior to the dollar taking taking over we had a much sounder monetary system then we had a more viable global economy you know once we took the money out of the economy once we substituted real money for fiat that was the beginning of these problems and the end of these problems is going to be returning to honest money which is gold and you know to go from here to there is there's a lot of problems that are gonna come to the surface there's a lot of defaults and bankruptcies but at the end of this tunnel there's there's a lot of light but hopefully we can avoid the oncoming train an excellent guide through interesting times Peter Schiff of euro pacific capital thanks for joining us
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