저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 2020년이 금에 폭발적인 해가 될 것이며 금·은이 달러 약세와 인플레이션 속에서 크게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 금 가격 배경: 이란 장군 사망 후 금은 1,550달러를 넘어 2010년 이후 최고 수준이었고, 어제 아침 1,580달러 이상에서 거래됐다고 언급했다. 2019년은 2010년 이후 금의 최고 성적이었다. 통화정책·경기 전망: 연준이 금리 정상화와 대차대조표 축소를 포기하고 금리인하와 양적완화로 돌아선 것은 금에 매우 강세 요인이다. 2020년대는 저성장과 고인플레이션이 공존하는 스태그플레이션, 더 나아가 인플레이션성 불황이 될 것이며 1970년대보다 나쁘다고 본다. 달러는 폭락하고 장기금리는 상승할 수 있다. 원자재 전망: 달러 약세는 금뿐 아니라 원유·농산물 등 원자재 전반에 호재다. 연준은 결국 금리를 0으로 낮추고 QE를 확대할 것이라고 예측했다. 은 전망: 은 광산은 은만으로는 수익을 내기 어려워 탐사·신규 채굴이 줄고 있으며, 이는 은 공급 측면의 구조적 지지 요인이다. 금 장기 비교: 1971년 금본위 폐지 이후 달러는 금 대비 약 97.7% 가치를 잃었고, 은 대비로도 약 91.2% 손실이다. 금 2,000달러 시 추가 손실은 98.3%로 계산했다. 타이밍: 금 상승 방향은 확신하지만 시점은 틀릴 수 있다고 인정했다. 투기적 매매보다 꾸준한 현물 축적을 권한다. 리스크·기타: 종이 금·은 ETF는 실물이 아니며 피하라고 조언했다. 은행 예금, 부동산주식 등 종이 자산은 장기적으로 0으로 수렴할 수 있다고 경고했다. 그리스·베네수엘라 사례와 미국 금융 시스템 취약성, 중앙은행의 금 순매수를 근거로 제시했다. 현금화 시 소량 판매는 당국의 주목을 덜 받는다고 언급했다. 주식·위험자산 전반에 대해서는 비관적이며 본인은 위험자산에 관망 중이라고 밝혔다. 출연자 개인 견해: 금은 장기적으로 '돈'이며 금이 오르는 이유는 경제 붕괴 신호라고 보고 있다.
다듬은 글
Gold soared above the $1,550 mark in the aftermath of the u.s. airstrike that killed an eminent Iranian general and has hit levels not seen since 2010 yesterday morning gold traded above 1580 dollars Peter Schiff explains why gold and oil will continue their trend upwards bolstered by tensions with Iran and why 2020 is going to be an explosive year for gold and silver silver more so than gold is seeing a major decline in exploration and new mine creation at the current prices a pure silver mining operation cannot make money silver produced as a bi-metal to copper zinc or lead is profitable since the primary metals pay the freight when we go whyme are owning precious metals as a good idea but also holding almost any sort of assets as not bad either stockholders were reasonably well protected but bondholders bit the dust as did all other creditors gold is money it always was and it always will be the market has been rising for all of the wrong reasons the wheels are falling off the economy Epstein's story got rejected the moment it came out we knew this was coming so the sheep were due for a distraction with war welcome to the Atlantis report in 2019 gold had its best year since 2010 Peter Schiff appeared on the RT December 31st and said that he believes gold price should have risen even more and given the current economic conditions he believes 2020 will be an explosive year for gold you know the reason the stock market went up this year is that the Fed surprised everybody by doing exactly what I had been predicting they would do they aborted their faint attempt to normalize their interest rates and shrink their balance sheet they went back to rate cuts and quantitative easing this is extremely bullish for gold Peter Schiff explained to RT gold should have been up a lot more in 2019 but he believes it will catch up over the next decade and particularly this year 2020 gold is going to be one of the best performing asset classes if not the best performing asset class on the planet peter noted that gold made major gains in 2019 despite of a dollar that was rather flat but the dollar is going to fall through the floor which means gold prices are going to go through the roof Peter said we are about to enter a new decade of stagflation with low economic growth and increasing inflation he said it's going to be even worse than the stagflation we saw in the 1970s this is going to be more like an inflationary depression so this century depression is going to come a decade early it's not going to be the Roaring Twenties it's going to be a decade of inflationary depression in the United States as far as the trade deal goes Peter said gold would go up regardless of what the trade war sideshow produces no matter what the dollar is going to go down that's bullish not only for gold but for commodities in general including oil and agricultural products peter emphasized that the Federal Reserve is going to eventually take rates back to zero and expand the QE program he pointed out that the unofficial quantitive easing the Fed launched last fall is already growing the Fed's balance sheet faster than the official QE in the wake of the 2008 crash but all of this is going to shift into a much higher gear as this new year plays out as we move into 2020 Peter said economic growth would likely be slowed and inflation will be higher than people believed the feds not going to do anything about it so we're going to have higher inflation we're going to have slower growth I think we could see a push up in long-term interest rates as the dollar really starts to weaken and that destroys the appetite for US dollar-denominated debt so if you have higher consumer prices and higher interest rates that's a negative for the economy but it's a positive for gold because the Fed is going to try to rescue the economy by printing even more money and all that's going to do is stoke the inflationary fire so I think we're going to see a big up move not just in 2020 but probably for the remainder of this decade you're going to see the type of move we had in the first decade of this century remember gold did really well from 2001 to 2010 timeframe so in the teens gold really trod water this is going to be the next leg up and I this is going to be an even more explosive decade for gold than the first decade of this century never mind all the naysayers Peter Schiff is right I just think he got the timing wrong but that's okay it just gives us stackers a little more time only the speculators will get hung up on the timing and by trying to play gold they will get burned and more of the metal will leave those weak hands and end up in someone's stack so it's all good I just keep adding to the pile month after month year after year no big dramatic moves just a slow steady accumulation you'd be surprised at how fast that adds up after a few weeks of tossing fines onto the pile you finally stop and take a good look and go damn that escalated quickly besides I think at this point I've bypassed the whole investment profit paradigm and have reached the point where I just want the goddamned metal and I don't give a crap what it does or doesn't do it's mindless and I want more of it I want to collect it I want to hoard it I want to dump it all out onto the floor and roll around in it I want to drape it all over myself and prance around my house like a gypsy fortune-teller rings on every finger and toe arms wrapped in golden bangles chains hanging off my neck like mr.
t those chains are my tulips those rings are my beanie babies those bangles are my overpriced house in the suburbs it might not make sense to those who just don't value gold at all and may even seem to be as foolish as putting one's money into small stuffed animals or flowers but I'm comfortable with it and don't really fear my gold becoming as worthless as I believe many assets will become in fact in most of my imagine scenarios my gold is more of an insurance policy for my spending power as opposed to a potential windfall I see myself as liquidating small amounts as needed for the currency du jour and thus being able to provide for basic needs regardless of what they are doing to the money or the economy some may imagine being able to buy up assets for pennies on the dollar with their gold but I don't think we will see such a simple scenario in any future crisis that aspect of why Mar will not be allowed to repeat itself I am sure the power that Bea will see to that and laws will be passed no doubt that makes it impossible for most folks to make such a killing I think the power of gold will be in using it quietly alongside the failing Fiat as a way to maintain some quality of life during this period of upheaval many will be one paycheck from disaster but those who have stashed some gold away will always be able to access some funds in a pinch and small sales in such a scenario would not attract much attention from authorities who will have a lot on their plate to deal with and aren't likely to mobilize over someone trying to sell a bracelet or a couple of rings but I wouldn't want to show up with a large collection of slabbed coins or bars expecting to walk out with enough cash to buy up your own hometown when Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971 gold was officially at $35 an ounce at the approximate current price of gold at 1550 dollars this would mean a compounded rate of approximately eight point one percent for 48 years and five months based on $1,550 the dollar has lost ninety seven point seven percent of its value against gold if gold went to two thousand dollars the compounded rate would be almost eight point seven one percent and a loss of ninety eight point three percent for the dollar when Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971 silver was officially at one dollar and 59 cents an ounce at the approximate current price of silver at eighteen dollars this would mean an approximate compounded rate of five point one four percent for 48 years and five months based on $18 the dollar has lost approximately ninety 1.2 percent of its value against silver if silver went to $24 the compounded rate would be almost five point eight percent and a loss of ninety three point four percent for the dollar also silver serves two roles one monetary and the other industrial the precious metals qualify for capital gains if you should desire paper gold and silver have no counter liability all paper does fiat currency always eventually returns to its intrinsic value which is zero buy gold stocks are physical that you can take possession of avoid ETFs and if you do not believe me hang on to your real estate stocks and for one Ches keep all your money in the banks it worked for the people in Greece and Venezuela the hundreds of billions in overnight repo rates no big deal orange Jesus is a financial genius with a long history of financial success 80% of all Americans have less than $1,000 save the next Black Swan won't affect them and Iran is just a bunch of hillbillies sleep I get it that people get tired of the economic destruction but you cannot argue that the system of fiat money is badly broken and central banks are net buyers of gold does anyone really think the current system can last much longer who knows what is coming but no reserve currency has long historical staying power and the dollar is clearly on the melt up short squeeze the US is doing the best parody of ancient Rome ever seen with bread and circus and uploaded over the extended military all of this points to a breakdown of the current system of money and eventual inflation of hard assets when money creation ensues this is not a Fibonacci sequence it is just history repeating itself if you do not have metals and other hard assets as a decent part of your portfolio then you are in deep denial of what is going on around us if you are hoping to time the market perfectly on this best of luck I am sitting on the sidelines with risk assets if there is a strong argument against this worldview I want to read it central banks are buying gold like there's no tomorrow because they know it's money and all fiat currencies are going to collapse not just the dollar the comparison of modern day America and ancient Rome is on the mark here unsustainable debt and military bases all over the world and we will suffer the same fate as ancient Rome this was the Atlantis report please like share and subscribe thank you
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