저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 투자자들이 변동성 때 공포에 팔고 급등 때 욕심에 매달리는 감정적 매매를 경계하라고 강조한다. 비트코인 강세 시나리오는 스테이블코인 확산 영향으로 주당 150만달러에서 120만달러로 하향했으나 새로운 글로벌 통화 시스템이라는 본질 논리는 유지한다. 2026년 미국 경기가 '롤링 리커버리'에서 본격 호황으로 전환할 것으로 보며, 2025년 7월 통과된 세제 개편(법인세 실질 10% 수준 인하 효과)으로 외국인직접투자·제조업·설비투자 붐과 AI 인프라 투자 확대를 예상한다. 혁신 플랫폼 확산으로 시장 주도주가 넓어질 것이며 ARK는 벤치마크 편입 약 4년 전에 종목을 선취한다고 주장한다. 불확실 요인으로 데이터센터 축소 기술을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
We do think if we move into this boom that that will dissipate and many more parts of the market are going to benefit. That has started happening this year. Uh and we think that would accelerate into next year. In our bullish case for Bitcoin, uh we're we're known for $1.5 million. Uh we think that per coin uh we think that stable coins are probably going to cut that by roughly $300,000.
So 1.2 million would more likely be our bullcase. Now Kathy Wood begins by addressing one of the most persistent failures in retail investing, emotional decision-making. She notes that in periods of intense volatility like the tariff-driven turmoil of April, investors behave predictably and destructively.
They sell into fear, locking in losses at the bottom, and they cling to winners at euphoric tops, afraid to take profits. The real threat isn't volatility itself. It's the ease with which constant account checking triggers fear and greed. Portfolio values now update minuteby minute. This accelerates emotional reactions, pushing investors toward impulsive selling during downturns and an unhealthy attachment to overextended gains near peake saddest one for for me to see is during a period of extreme volatility like April when we had uh the tariff turmoil.
Yes. Uh we see uh we we see a lot of investors selling at and they create the lows. the emotion using emotions as opposed to averaging in when uh when times look tough and taking profits averaging taking profits off the top when you know these companies seem like they can do nothing wrong. Uh both of those extremes uh you should use to your advantage as investors.
So, um I think letting emotion get the better uh because and especially if investors are looking at their accounts, I used to say daily, but now you can say minute by minute, uh with some of these services, you know, that can create an emotional reaction both ways. Uh you know, there's this the joy of the ride on the way up and they don't want to let go.
Take profits. There's nothing wrong with that. Uh the the the feelings of despair when the market seems to be crashing and you know you see a lot of your hardearned work wiped out. Uh selling at the low is uh that's that that creates sellers remorse which is which which you live with for a long time thereafter.
The only way that our thesis on bitcoin specifically has changed uh is is because of stable coins. So we thought that in emerging markets uh that the insurance policies that uh citizens of other countries that were not managed well um their insurance policies we thought would be in the form of Bitcoin uh because anyone with uh anyone uh hooked up to the internet can can buy Bitcoin.
Yes. And um and really nobody can prevent it except maybe in China. I I know there are some prohibitions there. Um and some other countries. Well, stable coins have come along and backed by the dollar effectively. They're backed by US treasury treasuries. Tether in addition to uh treasuries is backed by gold and bitcoin as well.
uh and it seems as though stable coins are usurping one of the roles we expected from Bitcoin. So in our bullish case for Bitcoin, uh we're we're known for $1.5 million. Uh we think that percoin uh we think that stable coins are probably going to cut that by roughly $300,000. So 1.2 2 million would more likely be our bull case now.
Um but in in every other way we have not changed our point of view. Uh we think Bitcoin is uh really a new it represents a new global monetary system and it's rulesbased. It takes out human decisionmaking. drives me crazy to see the Fed, Chairman Powell or any one of the governors out there talking and and causing all kinds of chaos in in markets.
It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Mathematically metered to go to 21 million uh Bitcoin. We're approaching 20 million as institutions are entering. So that's, you know, there's not a lot of supply left and uh we think institutions are have barely tipped their toes into Bitcoin. Uh so and and this is an important new asset class.
Uh so institutions are vitally interested in any asset that has a low correlation with all of the other assets in in which they're invested. So Bitcoin is the monetary system. Ethereum has some monetary aspects to it as well. We can tell from its valuation. Uh but it is also the engine of DeFi, decentralized finance.
um or as others would call it the internet financial system because that's all really that we're talking about here where we've introduced a layer uh to the internet uh with native digital currencies uh that did not exist before. And that's because in the early days of the internet, late 80s, early 90s, as developers were evolving the internet, they had no clue that financial services and commerce would take place over the internet.
Yeah. Uh and so we've been using all of these, you know, workarounds, Visa, Mastercard, and which include all of these fees, uh that are going to go down, uh fairly dramatically as we move towards this native ecosystem. And then more broadly, this applies to the monetary system, to DeFi, but to all digital assets.
For the first time with blockchain technology, we have property rights, digital property rights, which we did not have before. Immutable digital property rights. The fastest way to pull people and countries out of poverty is with immutable property rights. So we've got a whole new economy brewing in the digital world uh where ownership now is possible in the digital world and of course many people think of NFTTS but it goes well beyond that you know real world assets uh in the DeFi space are another good example of that there's a lot of capital chasing just a few ideas right now.
Yeah. uh we do think if we move into this boom that that will dissipate and many more parts of the market are going to benefit that has started happening this year. Uh and we think that would accelerate into next year if our if we're right on on the economic boom. Wood notes that today's market shows extreme concentration with significant capital chasing only a handful of themes.
However, in an innovation-driven economic boom, she expects this narrow leadership to broaden substantially. Early signs of this rotation began this year, and she anticipates acceleration as multiple innovation platforms begin converging. AI, robotics, energy storage, genomics, and blockchain. Her broader macro thesis centers on a major shift in US investment strategy.
For decades, markets have moved toward passive indexing. Benchmark inclusion drives capital flows and active managers rely heavily on index composition. ARK's research indicates that disruptive innovators often create four years of alpha before entering major benchmarks. Tesla is the prime example. For the last 30 years, the market has been moving towards passive strategies or benchmark sensitive after the tech and telecom crash or bust and even more so after 0809.
Uh many investors who used to be active uh and who did not use benchmarks as a screen for their own ideas. they used their own research which is what we do now. Uh they've moved towards using these big broad-based benchmarks as their guides. Um, if we're right and these five innovation platforms evolve, converge, uh, and create a deflationary deflation in a good sense of the word environment, then that is going to put at risk the traditional world order that is dominating those benchmarks.
Now, I will say it's been interesting. The S&P 500 in the last year put four stocks that were in our top 10 in uh the S&P 500. I found that interesting. But they don't put them in at 5 to 10% positions like we do when we have real confidence in a name. They put them in at 10 to 20 basis points. They're really not going to move the needle.
And then they let the stock's uh performance and the revenue growth dictate what percent uh it uh becomes of the benchmark as you know as as it uh outpaces other companies. Uh so we think uh uh I our our chief risk officer has done a study uh of our portfolios and concluded this is all preliminary I should say concluded that we get into stocks about four years before they enter um benchmarks.
Well, there's a huge amount of alpha uh if you measure us relative to benchmarks. Uh there's a huge amount of alpha we generate before these stocks get into benchmarks. Uh and um and you know Tesla is the perfect case in point. I think it it entered uh the S&P when it was a $500 billion market cap. Okay.
So there was a lot of performance uh from the time we got in which was essentially when it IPOed when we were at our last firm uh but immediately in 2014 when uh I founded ARC uh Tesla went into the portfolio there was a lot of alpha generation between that moment in time and I think it was late 21 or uh when it got into the benchmarks what we expect now this is from the US but it'll propagate throughout the world.
Um, we believe that while the unemployment rate is going up now and unemployment's a lagging indicator, we believe we've moved from a rolling recession to now we're in a a rolling recovery. We're beginning to see signs of life in housing, even with rates starting to come down. But next year, we think we're going to be in a fullblown economic boom in the United States.
And the reason for that is the tax package that uh passed on July 4th. Uh because the headlines have been screaming tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. Um I think President Trump is a master of distraction. What what people don't realize is in the tax package were depreciation schedules that are going to take the US corporate tax rate down to 10% for the next three years.
Uh and uh that will be the lowest in the world and we think that's going to create a foreign direct investment boom, a manufacturing boom because manufacturing structures are in there. uh an equipment boom and it's all going to be part of this AI uh related boom AI uh including the power and energy to um to to power up these data centers.
So I think next and I think it's going to be much more pervasive than that as well. Uh AI has been powering capital spending but the rest of capital spending has been falling. we think that's uh going to turn around quite significantly. So I think I don't think that's expected. I think a lot of people uh are are worried that unemployment rates going up and uh you know we're going to continue to to slide here uh one sector after another because the manufacturing sector has been negative.
It's been falling for three years in the United States. Many people do not understand that. So, we think that's going to turn around fairly dramatically. In terms of the other one, that's a harder one, I would say. If if it happens, uh, oh my goodness. Well, um, did you mean good or bad? Either direction.
H um that is a really hard Well, I'll tell you what would be very unexpected from our point of view. Yeah. Um I mean most unexpected, but we're hearing little breakthroughs, uh Google and others. Um, we think quantum computing computing is not going to commercialize until the late 30s. Okay. Um, but we're seeing all kinds of evidence, little breakthroughs here and there, Google, IBM, and others.
Um, but there's another one that I think I'll choose instead. I won't choose that one because it just seems so far-fetched. I don't think it'll commercialize, has a shot even next year. But there are um there are people out there who are saying that data centers which you know some are the size of Manhattan that's New York City right?
Yeah. Uh there are some technologies out there that could shrink the size of data centers enormously. And uh this is the history of technology. It it it you know you start out massive think think uh supercomputers and we end up with little computers in our hands. Exactly. Um I don't think it will happen very quickly.
However, uh just the prospect that there's a new way of solving this problem could could put a lot of a a halt to the massive amount of capital moving into that space. Just wait a minute. Is there a disruption to this disruption? In other words, these big data centers uh that could be that actually could be.
So, you don't need it to happen next year. You need someone or a group of investors to say, "Wait a minute. If this happens, we're investing way too much in this space right now." So that that would be one she argues will be a foreign direct investment surge, a manufacturing renaissance, and an equipment boom tied heavily to AI infrastructure and power generation.
This shift marks the transition from a rolling recession to what she calls a rolling recovery, eventually culminating in a full-scale economic boom. When asked about unexpected risks or surprises, Wood points to an underappreciated technological wildcard, the potential displacement of massive data centers.
Some experimental technology suggest a path to shrinking data center footprint dramatically. Even if commercialization is far away, the mere possibility of disruptive efficiency could cause investors to hesitate in funding giant AI buildouts. Just as supercomputers shrank into smartphones, data centers might follow a similar trajectory.
If investors perceive a credible threat to the current hypers scale model, capital allocation across the AI ecosystem could shift abruptly.
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