저자: TomLee · 외국인
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AI 부채·자금조달 우려로 기술주가 조정받는 상황이나, Tom Lee는 펀더멘털(AI 수요)이 유지되므로 눌림목이 매수 기회라고 주장. 메모리·반도체·neo-cloud·암호화폐 매수 유리 언급. Dan은 neo-cloud(CoreWeave) 리스크는 크지만 전체 수요는 견조하다고 봄. 비트코인 도미넌스는 단기적으로 추가 상승 후 금리 인하기에 하락할 것으로 전망, 달러는 상승 흐름으로 봄.
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We can actually probably go up. We will reach the bottom either today or Monday. And I think , from a fundamental perspective, I mean, we kind of have to respect the idea that AI debt markets might not be as confident. You know, the fundamental history and driving forces of AI remain the same. So to me, when fundamentals hold and markets get timid, it's actually a pretty good risk-reward ratio for investors.
So Tom, are you buying this pullback everywhere, are there certain sectors that you think are hitting that technical zone that makes them attractive for a rebound? I think the situation is favorable for buying. Financial markets are sending mixed signals to investors . Technology stocks are facing renewed pressure from sellers.
There is growing concern about funding for artificial intelligence. Oil prices are creating additional uncertainty, and rising interest rates are putting pressure on riskier assets. At the same time, many of the fundamental factors behind the AI revolution and the broader technology market remain unchanged.
According to Tom Lee, this combination of fear and underlying economic strength could create an attractive opportunity for investors who understand the big picture. Please take the time videos like this. So, Tom, let's start with you. You know, the market today looks like an attempt at a sell-off. The VIX index also rose significantly.
What do you think about the market as we see it today? Well , thank you for inviting me. You know, the market seems to have overcome a wall of anxiety. Fears about AI have escalated this week, and I think there are concerns that due to rising oil prices, tensions or war could escalate over the weekend.
So I think it's not surprising to me that the markets are pulling back today , but I think before viewers think this is the start of a larger decline, it's worth noting that the markets are at a support level. Our technical strategist Mark Newton thinks we can actually probably go higher. We hit rock bottom today or Monday.
And I think from a fundamental perspective, I mean, as much as we have to respect the idea that AI debt markets may not be as confident, you know, the fundamental story and the driving forces of AI remain the same. So, to me, when fundamentals hold and markets get timid, it's actually a pretty good risk-reward ratio for investors.
So Tom, would you buy on this pullback everywhere, or are there any particular sectors that you think are reaching that technical level that makes them attractive for a rebound? I think the situation is favorable for buying memory, semiconductors, you know, "neo-cloud", uh , you know, technology in general, cryptocurrencies.
I think they all rolled back to support levels at a time when people are perhaps very afraid of fundamentals, but as you know, if the fundamentals remain the same, it's a compressed spring. Dan, what do you think about what's happening with the "neo- cloud" right now? Do you feel that the market is punishing them unfairly, or do you think that this could be the canary in the mine, which is why it has become such a focus this week?
The problem with the “canary in the mine” argument, Leslie, is this: how many canaries have we “ killed” in the mine over the past 3 years, as everyone latched onto every new sign of weakness, so to speak, as proof that the “bull” market was about to end, only to see the broader market, both tech and otherwise, continue to make new highs ?
So I don't know if we should see anything more in what's happening now than in any other headlines before. The problem, I think, is that the stakes are higher, and since everyone is already nervous about the scale of AI implementation and the fact that this process is " overheating," everyone is starting to look at the riskiest parts of this construction.
And CoreWeave and “neo-clouds” are on the riskier end of this spectrum. And even in that context, what's happening with CoreWeave is not a secured debt repayment, not a unsecured debt repayment, which is the riskiest aspect of the AI implementation game. So , I think you have a problem here where people are trying to sell something against the backdrop of higher rates, but we've heard from ASML, we've heard from TSMC, we've heard from many other companies that the broader demand environment remains quite resilient.
And I would like to hear from CoreWeave that there are any issues in their business before drawing any more serious conclusions about what is happening now. But Dan, demand is one thing, and capital is another. And so far we see capital chasing demand. And I wonder if, as interest rates rise and the focus on what's happening with lending increases, are those two elements diverging somewhat?
Yes, I make two arguments. First, the stakes are higher, that's for sure, that's obvious. And the question is, do I want to believe that everyone in the development chain is able to finance themselves indefinitely at higher rates? And the answer to that is probably no. I don't know if this is the tipping point, or if the tipping point will come after another 25 or 50 basis points increase.
But as rates rise, the more speculative “tails, ” so to speak, of this development will be called into question. And now it's CoreWeave. My argument about demand is about the broader market; For investors who don't have long positions in Nebius or CoreWeave , or who are, so to speak, leveraged in the overall AI development, I don't think there's much to be learned from what's happening now in the broader context— whether for the tech sector as a whole, although it's clearly being sold off, or for the market as a whole.
I'm just saying that the stakes are higher, the riskier segments of the spectrum are getting hit, and right now it's the "neo-clowns" . Yes. Ed, what do you think? Is there a capital problem now ? And how big of a problem is this for the broader market? I mean, the cost of financing is going up for a lot of these companies.
IPOs are becoming increasingly difficult, and many data center-related companies are postponing their IPOs. You also don't see that much equity raising . So, you know, we've talked about before that permitting is the biggest obstacle to the capital spending trend in AI development , but now it seems like capital is moving up in priority as a factor that's more of an obstacle to this development, which, you know, so much of the economy depends on.
Capital has a price, and the market is now trying to figure it out. And it's quite possible that you will see some slowdown in development. But the demand is still very high. We'll have to see what the next reporting season holds. So we'll have to wait a few weeks to get a really good answer. And I think that's part of the reason why the market is selling off today— you just don't know.
So you'll have to wait until we get them. The last few seasons of reporting have really saved the day. Where the performance was so strong and the results so impressive. I mean, last season, expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth were a good 25% , and it came out at 32%. And here we are again with expected earnings growth of 25-26% in the third quarter.
Let's see if they can beat these predictions. So we'll just have to be a little patient. The market is usually weak in September. We saw this in small- cap companies. But this did not happen with large companies. So, maybe this is some catch-up to what we typically saw last month. Beyond traditional stocks, the transcript addresses an important issue for crypto investors.
Where is Bitcoin dominance heading ? Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization . When dominance increases, Bitcoin tends to outperform the rest of the crypto market. When it falls, altcoins generally strengthen their position relative to Bitcoin. The discussion begins with Bitcoin dominance approaching 60%, and it is argued that the next phase could be more difficult than the previous market cycle.
Bitcoin dominance is 60%, so it seems like a good time to return to an old friend— Bitcoin dominance . And, in my opinion, this cycle will be a little more complicated than the last. Last cycle, I was just blindly betting on Bitcoin's dominance growing throughout the cycle, right? One reason was tighter monetary policy, and also the fact that I considered this asset class to be overheated after the 2021 bull market, right?
So, the argument was that as long as interest rates remain restrictive, Bitcoin's dominance should grow. One way I measure this constraint is by comparing the Fed rate to the two-year yield, okay? So if you do that, if you look at interest rates and then add in the two-year yield here —I should probably put them on the same price scale.
If you look at them like this , you'll notice that, look, from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2026, the Fed rate was higher than the two-year yield. Therefore, I argued that monetary policy was restrictive. And if you look at Bitcoin dominance , you'll see that around the time that the policy became restrictive, the dominance had already bottomed out , and that's when it started to grow rapidly.
Isn't that right? And at this point, monetary policy is not that tight, as the federal funds rate is below the two-year yield. And just as Bitcoin's dominance found a low before policies became tight, it will likely peak in the summer of 2025 before policies become looser. However, I think it is important to discuss the fact that Bitcoin dominance is likely to increase again as policy returns to a more hawkish course.
However, unlike the last cycle, I don't expect Bitcoin dominance to increase throughout the cycle, okay? I think Bitcoin dominance will most likely increase for part of the cycle, but not the entire cycle, in my opinion. Now interest rates have already started to rise. And if you look at expectations for the Fed, I don't believe we're going to reach a tight policy zone anytime soon.
I'm trying to reload this page to see if we can...That's it. Interest rates are unlikely to become too tight very soon. But it's worth noting that two-year yields could well decline in the near future. We often see a drop in returns after midterm elections. Now you can see that it could take until around April to get the federal funds rate back up to 4.75%, with the two-year yield at this point sitting around 4.8%.
However, two-year yields could well decline after the midterm elections. If you looked at the year-to-date return on investment analysis in terms of profitability, right? So if we were to look at the two-year yield and see how a two-year Treasury bond typically behaves, you would see that it has mostly been rising this year.
It also increased strongly in 2022, then stabilized somewhat at the end. I think you might see something similar this time. And if you look at 2018, you can see that 2026 is very similar to 2018 in the sense that yields were rising, they might rise a little more, but then I expect them to fall after the midterm elections.
Good? So what's interesting about this is that if the two-year yield fell at the same time the Fed raises rates, then we could be back to tighter policy much sooner than mid-2027, right? Imagine if the federal funds rate reaches, say, 4.25% and the two-year yield falls to 4.5%, then we would be much closer to tight policy.
So my reasoning is that since we're probably moving in that direction, and as I said before, I'm still bullish on Dixie , which is the dollar. And I know I got a lot for that, but , you know, the dollar is going up this year. It may not have felt like it, but it is showing higher lows. In fact, a low was formed in January, then a higher low in May, and then an even higher low in August, right?
And you can see that the DXY , the US dollar index, has generally trended up for most of 2026. And one of the reasons why we, you know, why I talked about this was that a return to tighter monetary policy was quite likely, so we should expect the dollar to continue to rise. Another aspect is to look at this in terms of the trajectory of returns over the presidential term.
And if you look at the dollar, you'll notice that during Trump's second term, it's very closely replicating what happened during his first term. You can see that in both cases the dollar fell in the first year and then began to slowly rise in the year of the midterm elections. So it's not much different from what we saw in 2018.
And in 2017, right? It's just that the dollar in 2025 did the same thing as in 2017, and in 2026 it repeats what it did in 2018. So it's a very similar situation. And since we are likely to see rates and the dollar rise, I think Bitcoin's dominance should generally persist at the start of this next cycle .
But I don't think it's going to go up throughout the cycle, because I think at some point in this cycle we're probably going to see a significant rate cut, right? Once the economy starts to really feel the pressure of all these rate hikes, I think you'll see the dollar and Bitcoin's dominance decline.
But that could be another year or two. In the short term, I think dominance is likely to increase again, and probably the goal I would talk about when looking at the chart with stablecoins is that dominance will eventually return to previous levels. If you look at the last business cycle, you can see that Bitcoin’s dominance peaked before the end of quantitative easing (QT), and then reached that level again later in the cycle during Bitcoin’s parabolic rise.
And while Bitcoin's dominance excluding stablecoins has been falling recently, if you look at Bitcoin's dominance —let me show you, first we'll look at it including stablecoins, and then we'll look at it excluding them, right? Here, taking into account stablecoins, you see that it continues to grow.
If we exclude stablecoins, it has fallen a bit recently, but again , when we include them, stablecoins, which used to be one of the obstacles to Bitcoin dominance , have now become a kind of driving force that keeps it at a higher level, simply because the altcoin market is not showing the kind of amazing results that are needed to seriously impact Bitcoin dominance .
But the reason is that when Bitcoin rises to new all-time highs, a significant portion of the money from the altcoin market is likely to flow into Bitcoin, and then you will see Bitcoin's dominance grow again. In fact, you can see that dominance has actually stabilized at the same level as in September 2020.
Isn't that right ? Do you see this? It has actually remained stable there for a long time, and perhaps wants to grow, but it is having a hard time doing so so far . I don't know if there's going to be a catalyst or anything, but I think the dominance will increase again before it starts to drop to just above 50 %, maybe even the upper 40%—it's not out of the question, but I don't think it's a short-term prospect.
I believe that in order to expect a prolonged decline in Bitcoin dominance, we will first most likely see it rise and eventually test those 2025 highs. Now, another thing to consider, and I know some people remember this chart, is Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin; this chart is probably trying to find support at these lower levels.
Um, and if you include, you know, if you add USDC in here, it gets a little more interesting because it shows that the "wick" that we had before was actually consistent with some of these "wicks" that we saw in the last cycle. And while dominance did increase after that move, ultimately, sorry, even though all the pairs to Bitcoin increased, we later saw them fall again.
So, I assume that all pairs to Bitcoin will probably still try to move lower, no matter how hard it is. But the reason is simply that monetary policy is likely to remain tight. And then, as it continues to spend time at the bottom, eventually higher interest rates will trickle down into the economy, and then we'll go back to loose monetary policy.
And then, I guess, you'll see all the pairs to Bitcoin go up again. But I think that will probably be later in the cycle. Tom Lee's broader message is that fear and fundamentals can move in opposite directions. When markets sell off due to uncertainty, investors need to determine whether the underlying growth story is truly deteriorating or whether prices are reacting to short-term fears.
The AI revolution may continue to create significant opportunities, but funding costs and capital discipline are becoming increasingly important. High demand alone cannot protect every company from the consequences of expensive borrowing. For cryptocurrency investors, the outlook is no less nuanced.
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