저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 연준은 긴축 사이클 막바지에 와 있으며 이미 중립금리 이상 구간이므로 금리 인상 속도를 늦춰야 한다는 주장. [경기·고용 진단] 상반기 고용이 270만 명 늘었는데 GDP는 마이너스인 것은 설명되지 않는 모순이며, 생산성 급락이 원인일 수 있다고 봄. [인플레이션 전망] 생산성이 회복되면 인플레이션 완화 압력이 되며, 주택 가격 상승률은 이미 꺾였고 선행 인플레이션은 실질적으로 거의 없다고 평가. [연준 정책] 중립금리는 약 1~1.5%로 보는데 현재 금리는 2% 이상이므로 이미 긴축 영역. 후행 지표인 CPI만 보고 2%까지 기다리면 재앙이라고 비판. [시장·주가 전망] 7월 랠리는 연준 피벗 신호로 해석. 저점이 이미 나왔다고 확신할 수는 없다고 유보. S&P500 기업 실적은 견조하고 올해 실적 추정치는 1월과 큰 차이 없다고 언급. [리스크] 1970년대식 긴축 후 완화 반복(스톱앤고) 위험을 묻는 질문에 대해 명시적 답은 없고, 데이터 의존이 필요하지만 기계적 정책은 위험하다는 취지. [출연자 전망 요약] 연준 긴축 종료 임박, 금리 인상 속도 둔화 필요, 생산성 회복 기대.
다듬은 글
what do you think uh jeremy july was a good uh snapback but do you think we're headed for new lows uh at some point or have we already made a real bottom well good morning joe uh you know it had to be you know about an hour ago you mentioned how important the employment report that we're going to be getting on friday and one of the things that really has puzzled me is that over the last six months first half of this year we added 2.7 million jobs how did we get a drop in gdp i don't know why people aren't asking that question i mean what are people doing i mean you get gdp by people working 2.7 million jobs and the only explanation would be a tremendous drop in hours well the official drop in hours doesn't explain or a dramatic drop in productivity now the first quarter we had the worst productivity in 75 years but it bounced back 75 years ago now the government is telling us with recent data that the second quarter we're going to get a couple weeks is almost as bad as the first quarter this is unprecedented we have never seen a collapse of productivity like that in history uh i think man i was very interested what is what does the bind administration say about it what is the fed say about it now what the house of possible good news is if we get a bounce back to a more normal level that really slows down inflation because obviously less productivity means more inflation higher productivity less inflation i think the fed should be near the end of its tightening cycle i think we're already in a uh above neutral mode i know a lot of people think not you know larry summers have been arguing we're not there yet well i think the neutral rate is somewhere between one and one and a half we're over two right now um i think the fed has got to be looking at the sensitive commodities and housing prices and say you know what uh yeah we messed up later on and caused a lot of inflation but forward-looking inflation uh has really been stopped so you don't think that the risk is that there's some type of stop and start scenario from which got us in a lot of trouble uh in the 70s you don't think do you think the fed should settle on a terminal rate and not be data dependent or do you think that the the the first time it looks like they're having some success they back off well they got to be data dependent but you know they can't look at the cpi we talked about the fact that that's really backward looking and we talked about the fact that understates the housing prices which you know past cpi over the year i think went up 10 to 12 percent um if they put in housing prices properly but all the word from you know housing experts in the data says hey that housing inflation has come to an end so if they look at the forward-looking data and that's what the market wants i mean well you know i think it went up last week because they said i think we see a pivot there you know i think we see uh powell saying it's softening we see the softening we don't want him to say well i gotta wait the official statistics get down to two percent before i stop stop tightening that would be disaster so you know i think that market is saying hey take a look at what's going forward yeah there's a lot of inflation that has been in the pipeline coming through the official statistics but forward-looking inflation i think is really nil on a real basis and i think the fed should really slow down the rate of hiking um and if we get if we get a snap back in productivity that'll put further downward pressure um you know i'm not going to guarantee we saw the bottom a couple months ago it's impossible to sell but uh you know her earnings have really held up um over you know even you know half the s p companies have reported uh not as big a b just last year of course but that was an all-time record um and guidance yeah a little bit lower but i looked at the s p estimate for just this year so i'm not talking about 2023 it's not any different from january um really uh even with all that's happened and a negative gdp read over the last six quarters which how do we understand why that is happening when we hire 2.7 million workers you know you have to have you have to try to figure some of this data out before you make rash moves on the monetary front
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