This is the most negative tech investors have been since 2009, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

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결론: 빅테크에 대한 투자 심리는 2009년 이후 가장 부정적이지만, 아마존 실적은 기대보다 나아 일부 종목은 반응했고 앞으로는 종목별 선별이 필요하다는 진행. 거시·심리: 진행자들은 매크로가 어렵고 기업 실적 컷이 아직 끝나지 않았다는 점에서 투자자들이 빅테크에 극도로 비관적이었다고 평가함. 실적 발표 전 기대치는 낮았음(시장 컨센서스 C~C-, 실제는 A~B+ 수준). 아마존: 클라우드 성장이 엔진이며 인건비·비용 관리가 중요하다고 봄. 광고 매출 약 87.6억 달러, 전년比 21% 성장으로 여전히 강하다고 언급. 온라인 스토어는 전년 대비 보합으로 지난 분기 소폭 감소에서 개선. 리비안 관련 세전 평가손실 39억 달러 언급. 주가 약 10% 상승 흐름. 마이크로소프트·애플: 마이크로소프트의 클라우드·고객 지출 흐름이 가장 전략적으로 중요하다고 평가(Ives가 가장 잘 대응한 기업으로 지목). 애플 실적은 아이폰 14 출시를 앞두고 수요와 공급망에 대한 힌트를 줄 핵심 발표로 꼽음. 출연자 견해: Ives는 빅테크를 무조건 보유하기보다 선별해야 하며, FANG 종목 간 양극화가 계속될 것이라고 봄. 메타는 최근 실적이 좋지 않았고 FTC가 소규모 인수를 막는 등 과제가 크다고 언급해 보유에 신중한 태도.

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01. all of the mega caps into context at this point is the headline we walk away with better than feared not spectacular by any stretch of the imagination you can't report a loss like amazon has here and think that everything is fabulous but it's better than feared and that's why the stocks for the most part x facebook meta have reacted the way they have yeah and i think street was expecting a c c minus coming in instead it was a a b b plus and ultimately if you look what's factored into a lot of the valuations there's a narrative that's coming across here enterprise holding up cloud continues to be strong and even on some of the consumer errors in terms of digital what we saw with alphabet and some others it's a bifurcation that we're seeing on one side snap on the other side's alphabet and i think that's we're going to continuously play out but the one thing i want to say is i believe it's the most negative i've seen tech investors going into earnings i'd say going back 2009.

02. well i mean for good reason right you can't fault them kenya i mean the macro is tough and i i should also add that even though we're not seeing a big enterprise drop off and you know microsoft cfo talks about big deals still holding in place j-pal said it clearly yesterday a lot of what they have done has yet to filter through the system and have a big impact on what might still be coming so let's not you know jump out of our seats and throw a parade just yet no doubt and i think the important thing is that these management teams have now cleared the decks for guidance the big reason especially institutionally speaking you couldn't really own tech you felt like numbers cuts didn't happen yet now that they've had now i feel like you start seeing more and more of a green light not even just in the backdrop because of where earnings are you feel like they're hittable and beatable second half numbers yeah jason snipe i mean important too for look andy jassy is gonna have to you know forge his own way and put his own name on where he wants this company to be after it's so long identified as jeff bezos's baby well andy jassy is at the helm now they've split the stock they're moving into this post-pandemic world what do you want to see from him they have to cut down expenses he's made that painfully clear uh in the most recent months and we'll hear from them coming up on the call in just a bit yeah i mean but andy's been there for 24 years he's been there a long time he's part of he's been part of the executive team i think for me it goes back to what we were talking about earlier continuing the focus on the cloud again that's the engine of the business and prudent uh strategy in terms of labor costs and expense management i think that's going to be very important and also managing into a normal cycle as it relates to e-commerce i think that's going to be very important there's a lot of pull forward throughout the pandemic obviously we're getting back to a more normal environment how do they pivot into that i think that's going to be the key moving forward back to d bosa who has more force on advertising d there's always a lot to go through scott um advertising of course amazon has become a major player and the effects it's seen certainly from that slowing ad market growth but not too bad um i'm looking for right here revenue coming in of 8.76 billion that's growth of 21 year over year so that's still pretty strong especially when you compare it to the twitters and snaps and metas that's slowing from 25 growth last quarter but remember this is and now nearly 9 billion dollar per quarter business within amazon also a little more color on that rivian law scott it was a pre-tax valuation loss of 3.9 billion dollars i'm also just want to tell you of course amazon's core online stores it was flat year over year one of the biggest uh sticking points from last quarter was it was actually a small annual decline which amazon had rarely seen so improving a little bit remember amazon took a six billion dollar loss in the last quarter so maybe things are looking up and that's why you're seeing the stock up ten percent yeah dee thank you for that dan ives i mean who in your universe is managing this challenging environment you think the best thus far by the way we haven't even heard from tim cook and apple which we expect in some 14 minutes from now i think it's that company in redmond because ultimately putting the dell has done at microsoft it's really been almost a tactician approach in terms of cloud in terms of what we've seen with customers the expense profile and i think the really the the second leg of that is going to be cook and apple i think those are the two we've talked about the two most important earnings i think across tech maybe across the market where microsoft as well as apple what it's going to show about demand as well as what especially on the supply chain side what we're seeing for apple with iphone 14 around the corner last week before we take a quick break this makes you comfortable with owning big tech like you do certain aspects of big tech certain aspects i mean you still have to be choosy you have to be choosy absolutely i mean i own i recently bought facebook but then you know that wasn't a great report and also the ftc is not even letting them buy this small fitness app and so that just has big challenges i still think there's going to be more bifurcation between the fang names of which ones you want to own you can't just own that basket anymore