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hello everyone i'm david scranton and thank you for clicking this video you know since it's the start of a new year today we're talking about ways that you can improve your financial health if your goal is to get your finances in shape then this video is for you and now it's time to bring in today's guests we have of course jeff small president of arbor financial services a retirement income store located in melbourne florida jeff uh hey great to have you back here first time i'm actually seeing you in 2022.
happy new year dave glad to be here happy new year to you too and a big happy new year to today's special guest and that's jim rogers chairman of rogers holdings and beylin trust incorporated jim rogers thanks so much for being back with us here on the income generation i am delighted to be here i wish i were in florida middle of the night here there you go well we'd love to have you in florida jim but we'll have to settle on our call today now we're talking about 2022 and i want you to consult your deep thought processes on your financial genie and say hey what is the market going to be like for 2022 is the bull market rally going to continue because things look pretty good right now employment's good companies are making money inflation is uh not that good but that's good for the markets in some ways so give us your your take on 2022 jim well you're going to see uh lots of things go higher for a while i mean you have governments all over the world printing staggering amounts of money like has never been done in history so for a while things will be great but eventually later this year i would suspect it's all going to pop and explode and we're going to have a terrible bear market i mean i hope it's not the end of the world we've had bear markets many many many times throughout history i hope we all survive this one's going to be a very bad one but i hope we all survive well i don't think we're expecting to earn 27 like we did in 2020 but i think the year so far does look like it's pretty good as long as companies are making money jim the markets will be okay it's when earnings go south so you're saying that the money printing will affect earnings well eventually the money printing either things get so high that people just say i'm going home i'm not going to play this game anymore or interest rates start going up in the central banks lose control and when interest rates go up higher and higher people realize they got to get out of the market because a bear market is coming i mean it's not as though this hasn't happened thousands of times before in history yes the economies are great most places in the world right now but we've never had a bull market that goes on forever except in the minds of some politicians yeah jim it's interesting i'm concerned because often we have inflation it's almost exclusively from the demand side of the equation not the supply side of the equation but right now it's really both and if they over treat the demand side by raising interest rates and trying to slow things down that could send us to recessions so do you think the biggest risk right now to our economy in 2022 is the fed making a misstep that is always a great word most central banks are not very smart you know they're they're bureaucrats or or politic or academics who can't get a real job so they go to work for the government they don't have a clue what's going on in the real world and they'll they nearly always make mistakes not just ours but everybody's and eventually of course it's you think this is going to go on forever if so david oh hallelujah hallelujah no no no you're preaching to the choir here but here's my question you know things can always go down longer than we think and go up for longer than we think so if you had a handicapping and i know i'm asking you for a crystal ball issue but you know do you think is greater greater than a 50 chance that we slide into a bear market before the end of 2022 or do you think maybe greater than a 50 percent chance we might just be able to push the pain out to 2023.
your best guess i would say is a greater than 50 percent chance that this is over by by the end of 2022 does not mean it can't go up for a while and often you have a blow-off when you have markets like this you know when things just explode for a while this could very well explain if you remember the i'll use the us since we're all americans you know at the end of 1999 oh my god the nasdaq doubled in a few months or something i mean you have the crazy things happen and that could well happen again but they always end badly when they end jim my financial resolution for 2022 really is to come out and hang with you in singapore is that okay well i think singapore will probably come out of all this better than uh many other countries so by all means come on over and i'll buy you a beer so you know what we're i would love to do that by the way listen you know we see a lot of folks out there today um in the investing community from main street america who are really complacent about their money and their complacency is very similar to the 2007 complacency that we saw in the markets to the 1998-1999 complacency that we saw in the markets what should those folks from main street america have for a financial resolution for 2022 what would you say to them well i guess i'd say watch income generation to figure out what's going on because once you understand what's going on you'll get word and once you get word you'll get prepared i mean we've seen all this before i mean anybody who hasn't seen it can just read about it you know at the end of a bull market things go up all the time new people come into the market they tell their friends oh i've discovered this new thing the stock market and it's fun and it's easy and you can make money and it's easy to make money it always happens and spax you know spax have been around for a few hundred years but they always come back at the end of a long bull market and it always ends badly in the end i mean i don't like it at all but i i've seen this rodeo before well i think from a resolution standpoint i think the bull market's going to continue it's when the spax run out of money and we see the money train kind of crash along with the lack of stimulus by the fed that's going to cause a market calamity gym and so i mean i think we're we're probably 12 to 18 months away from having that happen well as i said before i suspect by the end of 2022 we will start seeing problems in the markets i mean who knows i mean if they print enough money there's a theory around now called mmt more money today if they do that it could go on a couple of years i mean some of these if you go back and look at wild bubbles in history some of them have just gone on unbelievably and absurd things happen but they have always ended badly listen i haven't sold anything i'm not short i'm not selling short but i'm just telling you this is not going to last forever and when it ends it's going to be the worst bull market in my lifetime worst bear market in my lifetime we had a bear market in 2008 because of too much debt oh my gosh since then debt all over the world has skyrocketed the next bear market has to be a bad one so jim i know you haven't sold anything yet but let's face it most people listening to you right now don't have jim rogers money okay so what's your best advice your best advice for those income generation members that either retired or within 10 years of retirement in light of your concerns about the financial markets today my very best advice is do not listen to hot tips especially at this stage of the market do not invest in anything unless you yourself know a lot about it yes yes you can watch income generation but even then only invest in what you yourself know a lot about because when things start going wrong you don't know what to do unless you know a lot about it yourself and that's how people get wiped out when bear markets come yeah yeah it makes sense get educated and uh you know how about real quick what's your best advice for sticking to new year's resolutions versus the majority of the population that make new year's resolutions and let them fall to the wayside year after year well my my since we're talking about investments most assets are in the bonds are in a bubble stocks are beginning to form bubbles property in many countries is above the only assets that aren't up already are commodities i mean silver is down 60 percent from its all-time high sugars down 60 percent if i were suggesting for people to advise to invest i would say look at the things that haven't gone up a lot yet and maybe there are opportunities there and with everybody printing a lot of money normally real assets do better than paper assets yeah don't certainly don't buy the things that are clearly in a bubble right now good advice as always jeff small jim rogers thanks so much for being here with us on the income generation thank you for watching today's video 20 tips to improve your financial 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