📈 Tesla Stock Analysis - Deep Dive in TSLA 📈

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테슬라는 2018년 7월 기준 펀더멘털이 취약하지만 브랜드 충성도와 모델3 생산 확대로 흑자 전환이 기대되는 고변동성 투기주로, 진행자는 현 시점 중립 평가를 내린다. 핵심 주장: 테슬라는 전기차·태양광(솔라시티 인수)·배터리를 사업으로 하며, 모델3가 흑자 전환의 핵심이다. 모델3 주간 생산 목표 5,000대 달성 소식이 있었으나 지속 가능성에는 의문이 제기된다. 경쟁: 전기차 전문 직접 경쟁자는 없으며, 볼보 등이 2019년 전기차 전환을 발표했지만 기존 완성차는 범위·성능 면에서 테슬라에 뒤처진다고 평가한다. 애널리스트 전망: 최근 6개월 기준 강세 3, 중립 4, 약세 2. 목표가 평균 약 363.83달러로 당시 주가보다 높다. 기술적 분석: 4월 약 250달러 부근까지 급락 후 이동평균선 부근에서 방향을 탐색 중이다. 장기 추세 지지선은 약 240달러로, 진행자는 이 부근 조정 시 매수 관심을 밝혔다. 펀더멘털: 현재 PER는 없고(적자), 선행 PER는 약 120~331로 매우 높다. 포드 PER 6, GM PER 10과 비교된다. 배당 계획은 없다. 재무 리스크: 현금 대비 부채 비율(현금/부채)이 0.386으로 부채가 현금의 약 3배다. 영업이익·순이익 모두 적자가 지속되고 자본지출이 급증했다. 경기침체 시 부채 상환 부담이 큰 고위험 종목으로 평가된다. 성장: 매출은 전년 대비 두 자릿수 증가 중이나, 2018년 3분기 또는 4분기 흑자 전환 전망이 있다. 매출 성장 둔화 시 주가 급락 우려가 있다. 결론: 펀더멘털은 좋지 않지만 브랜드와 성장 기대감으로 현 시점 중립 등급을 부여한다. 진행자 전망: 흑자 전환과 생산 목표 유지 여부를 주시하며, 240달러 부근 조정 시 장기 매수를 고려할 수 있다고 본다.

다듬은 글

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01. so Tesla is one of the most hyped most volatile stocks in stock market a lot of investors have either opened a position in Tesla looking to open up position Tesla or absolutely hate the stock and some go as far as even shorting the stock because they hate it that much and they think it's in a crashing burn go to zero dollars at some point what we're gonna do today is do a deep dive on Tesla look at their fundamentals look at their technicals and try to figure out if this company is really a good buy let's go so if you're new to the channel make sure you hit that subscribe button down below and hit that Bell notification I try to release at least one of these deep type videos every single week on companies that you guys want to see it on so if you want to see another company one of your favorite holdings maybe make sure to comment it down in the comment section as well either way today we're gonna be talking about Tesla and we're gonna be looking at some of the numbers behind the company and I know that has had a lot of good news recently so we're gonna figure out if this company is a buyer right now so Tesla has actually created as TSL on the stock market and they're a fairly new company in terms of how big they have become recently they were actually founded back in 2003 and they focus mainly on developing electric vehicle which is what most people know Tesla's but they also do things in the solar panel space by acquiring solar city and they also create lithium-ion batteries it's actually one of the biggest producers of batteries and of course these batteries that you became their Tesla cars so they're actually most well-known through their CEO of course Elon Musk who has created successful companies in the past like PayPal for example and he currently runs not only Tesla but he also runs space X which is one of the most hyped and most I guess well known space companies out there after NASA of course so like I mentioned before Tesla is really most well known for his lineup of cars so specifically they make currently the Model S the Model X in the model 3 they also have the Roadster model which they unveiled a new model last year where you know it'll be the fastest car in the world when it is released I believe in 2020 maybe and they also release their 70 trucks last year so that's gonna be another big segment of their income because a lot of big companies like Walmart and Loblaws here in Canada have been pre-ordering these trucks for their business so what I really find interesting about this company is that investors in this stock have really supported the company through the Model X and the Model S which yes they did sell well but they didn't sell crazy amounts of volume to the point where Tesla had become profitable the real interesting part is model 3 which is what Elon Musk and most investors believe will be the car that will drive Tesla from a negative income to a positive income thus making it profitable so as a result of course model 3 has been in the news a lot recently and a lot of investors including myself not really investor right now but I have been watching closely and I have been kind of keeping an eye on the production numbers for the model 3 so there was kind of an expectation that they'd hit 5,000 units per week by the end of June 2018 so this was actually said by Elon Musk himself he said that was their goal for June that's what they wanted to hit and the good news actually came out and said that they did hit this however we'll take a look at the stock price soon and we'll see that it wasn't all great news there was some sort of downside to that as well because people are saying that the way that they got to this 5 out of the number was unsustainable and they won't be able to continue that moving forward so of course a lot of skepticism and a lot of bears and the stock like I mentioned another plus though about owning a Tesla is that they provide supercharged stations all over the US and Canada so if you have a Tesla if you have one of the higher model to the Model S Model X I believe you can recharge there for free but if you have the Model 3 there is a payment plan minimal cost but there is a payment plan where you can actually go and you can pay for charge that you need so the other projects like I mentioned were the solar panel project and the battery projects that they have going and although those are big potentials for the future as of right now the companies are really kind of putting its head first and focusing on just cars and model 3 specifically because like I said that is gonna be the determining factor test that will become profitable and will become one of the largest car manufacturers in the world so now in terms of competition what I found interesting here and this is just my opinion of course is that there's no real major threat directly to Tesla so there's no company in other words that competes directly creates only electric cars and competes directly with Tesla now that being said companies like Volvo have announced that they will be shifting all of their current cards at gas-powered cars to electric cars and will only have an electric fleet by 2019 but this is still about a year away from recording this video all the other car manufacturers like American car is German cars Japanese Korean etc all have models that are usually either gas which are usually the most sold cars or they have hybrid models and only a handful of them have fully electric models and even if they do their range is typically very poor on that so in this sense terms of competition cor competition to Tesla I would say the Tesla is miles ahead no pun intended of the competition and there is no major threat immediately for anyone coming into the space and overtaking Tesla on a pure electric car scale there's just too much behind the brand too much irony that's gone into this company and it'll take the other manufacturers out there a while to actually catch up to Tesla in my opinion so the analyst here during the last six months I've actually shaved this down from previous videos last six months I feel is a better way to look at what the analysts think with a stock so six months is a good time frame and we can see here that three analysts have been bullish two are bearish and four are neutral on the stock so investors are kind of all over the place with Tesla as expected because it is a very high speculation stock and if we calculate the average price target here at the analysts that did give out a price target we have around three hundred and sixty three dollars and eighty three cents which is above where the stock price is currently now if we take a look at the technicals of Tesla what I noticed was that it actually showed a lot of weakness back in April you can see that massive dips that have really had kind of took a nosedive back down there in April and it came close to around $250 or so which in hindsight 20/20 of course was a great entry point especially for people who want to swing trade the stock fast forward to today we can see the Tesla is kind of struggling around it's moving averages and thoughts all of his moving averages it's trying to find some direction whether it wants to move higher or lower which is why it's really hovering around these moving averages and trying to see if the Bears take over or the Bulls take over one thing that I do want to note though from this chart is that there is a long trend support line that I'm personally watching and that's around the $240 level and I'd love for the stock to actually come down for this level because that's where I'd personally be interested in picking up a position in Tesla and potentially holding back for the long term so now let's talk about the fundamental to your Tesla so the interesting part is Tesla does not have a current p/e and that is because they are still not a profitable company however they are expected to become profitable and they do have a forward p/e of around 120 331 so still very high still speculative because they do have turned a profit first but this is kind of what you're getting into when you invest in this company now the competition I usually talk about the competition as well here and like I said there isn't really any direct competition but just for comparison's sake if we look at two other American companies because Tesla is American Ford and GM they both have Pease of six and 10 respectively so you can see where these companies are valued and where Tesla is valued and realistically from the income these companies should be much higher but investors don't really think that Ford and GM will be around for the long haul especially if they don't change things quickly which is why a lot of money is going to Tesla as opposed to those companies of course Tesla does not pay out a dividend right now because they don't make any money and I don't think that you'll be seeing a dividend anytime soon with the stock it's gonna be a very very long time because any income that they're making is going back into the company back into production so they can produce more cars in some more cars they have tons of cars on backorder and they need to get those out to customers as soon as possible and how the story continues here with the balance sheet things just keep getting worse when we look at the fundamentals Europe Tesla you can see the cash investments is just under four billion dollars and the debt is just above ten billion dollars so the cash and debt ratio which I usually like to see at a three or four is actually zero point three eight six so this is absolutely terrible because it means Tesla has three times more debt than they do cash so now the concern here is of course if we do enter some sort of economic downturn or a recession where Tesla really needs to go out there and start paying off their debts paying off any sort of liabilities that they have they're not going to be able to do that because they don't have enough cash on hand and that's exactly why I feel it's a very high risk stock and you are kind of spec by investing in it right now so getting into the numbers and growth this is where the interesting stuff comes into play and you'll actually notice a couple of things here that I'll point out so the first thing I really noticed is that of course looking at the balance sheet it's got to be one of the unhealthiest stocks that I've seen in terms of numbers now the revenue has been increasing which is a huge plus in my opinion in fact it's been increasing by double digits year over year which is extremely healthy to see but on the other hand the capital spending is also been increasing substantially year over year if you look at 2017 that was an absolute ridiculous amount that they spend on capital spending so they really need to start managing this because of course that all goes to their debt level and they have to pay that off at some point now the operating income and the net income have been both negative ever since this company has really gone public and that means that the company hasn't really turned a profit now if we look at 2017 doesn't really show any signs of getting out of this kind of downward trend but there is speculation out there and there are articles coming out that's presumed that Tesla will become profitable sometime in q3 or q4 of this year so that's something that people are going to be watching out for and if they do turn a profit this year that'll definitely be a huge plus for the stock and will help the stock actually move in the right direction right now like we saw even though the numbers like they did hit 5,000 units in a week people are still torn on if they want to invest this company or not because the fundamentals are still not healthy they're still losing money on a fundamental level so once that turns around once you start becoming more profitable that's when we'll see a lot more investors who are willing to take on more of a moderate to high risk as opposed to just a high risk we'll start entering the stock and as that PE comes lower and lower and lower we'll see more and more growth and value investors get into this as well so of course the stock performance also has been all over the place it's been increasing substantially in the last four or five years but over the last year has kind of been rocky it's kind of been back and forth and we'll take a deeper look into that in a second so here we can see the graph performance and here we can she see how the stock price is done in comparison to its other fundamentals so the first thing I don't really like is that on paper this doesn't really show any signs of turning a profit yet yes there is speculation that they will be profitable at some point this year but if you look at just their data and the way the charts are going it just looks like they're losing more and more money with the more and more revenue that they earn of course their capital spending is something I mentioned as well and that's also been increasing so that's something to keep an eye on as well if we look at their stock performance here on the chart you can see that it's actually been kind of following the revenue but that is what kind of raises a red flag for me personally because I like to see companies that not only follow the revenue but also follow the income because the income is what keeps the profitability going and the cash flow going so when that's decreasing at a substantial rate and the stock price is going up at a substantial rate following the revenue going up at a substantial rate it kind of raises a flag where people are more speculative on the stock and if something does go horribly wrong in the revenue drops the stock could lose significant amount of value overnight so really bottom line here is as an investor I'd be very cautious on this company I'd be monitoring the revenue very very closely and I'd expect the ready to keep going up substantially over here you can see like the last trailing 12-month kind of skews this data a little bit but if you look at the first five data points it has started to go up a bit exponentially so if that continues then hopefully they will be able to turn more of a profit and kind of get out of this rut that they're in but if that exponential growth slows down and we start leveling off I would be very concerned as an investor because I would expect the stock price to start dropping in that case okay so here's the fun part and we conclude our analysis and we figure out if Tesla is a buy so Tesla has an excellent brand behind it with a loyal following any CEO that investors absolutely love or absolutely hate that's one of the main reasons that Tesla is such a hyped stop the fundamentals of the company don't really tell us a good story which is what I don't really like personally because they are still losing tons of money and are still waiting to turn a profit on the business so now like I mentioned they do expect become profitable in q3 or q4 of 2018 which would be a very good sign for the stock very good sign for the investors and overall I think it'll be a healthy thing to see in Tesla now that being said there's still a lot of speculation around this there's a lot of speculation around Tesla in general the performance that has really had over the last few years has been following it's a revenue performance and if that does take a hit or starts leveling off this stock like I mentioned could suffer a significant downturn in the short term at least but what I'd say about the brand and the company is that Tesla and Elon Musk have really proven that there is serious automotive threat out there and other companies need to take note of Tesla and actually ramp up their electric car production because clearly from the orders that they're getting and the interest of the brand has kind of acquired over the last few years it's something that people are looking forward to they want self-driving they want electric cars and Tesla gives that to them as long as they're able to sustain this 5,000 models per week and even go up to 6,000 as what they're expecting they will most likely turn a profit this year like expected but we'll have to wait and see if that 5,000 that they did in the last week of June is actually sustainable moving forward so now in conclusion really although the numbers show a very unhealthy company in Tesla we saw tons of loss in the company we saw capital spending increasing we didn't really see very healthy charts and healthy fundamentals I still cannot bet against this company because it's kind of a company that yes it is speculative but it is something that you expect over time people will adapt to and people will want which is why there's a lot a lot of hype and speculation around this stuff so as a result of this I personally would give Tesla a neutral rating right now so let's hit this video to 100 likes I know you guys love Tesla I really want to see your thoughts on the company and if you're invested in the company if you're not let me know why you're not but either way guys thank you so much for watching hit that subscribe button down below and don't forget to test positive