저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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결론: 로빈후드는 실적 악화와 사용자 감소로 주가가 페니스톡(5달러 미만) 수준까지 밀려 위기이며, 생존하려면 암호화폐 지갑·NFT·신규 금융상품·알트코인 거래·소셜/미디어 확장이 필요하다고 진단. [주가 및 시장 상황] 로빈후드 주가는 최고 85달러에서 약 10달러로 폭락했고, 실적 발표 직전 약 9.8달러, 페니스톡 기준(5달러)과 4달러 차이 수준이라고 언급. 캐시 우드(ARK)가 약 1,400만 주 보유 중이며, 40~50달러대에서 매수한 것으로 설명. 시가총액은 약 100억 달러 수준으로 정점 대비 크게 축소. [실적 및 가이던스] 2022년 1분기 매출 가이던스 3억 4천만 달러 미만(전년 대비 약 35% 감소), 월가 예상 4억 4,800만 달러를 크게 하회. 4분기 순손실 4억 2,300만 달러(주당 4.9달러 손실), 매출 3억 6,300만 달러로 예상치를 소폭 상회. 4분기 거래 기반 매출 2억 6,400만 달러(옵션 약 1억 6,300만, 암호화폐 약 4,800만, 주식 약 5,200만 달러). [사용자 및 수익 구조] 월간 활성 사용자 1,730만 명으로 전분기 1,890만 명에서 감소, 성장 둔화. 수익은 거래량에 의존하며, 주문흐름 대금(PFOF) 구조로 거래 데이터를 마켓메이커·헤지펀드에 판매하는 모델. [암호화폐 매출] 암호화폐 매출은 2021년 2분기 2억 3,300만 달러에서 3분기 5,100만 달러로 급감, 추가 감소 전망. [출연자 제안 및 전망] 암호화폐 지갑 도입 시 포지션 고려 가능 입장. 필수 과제: ①암호화폐 지갑 ②NFT 거래 ③401k·로스IRA·입출금 계좌·체크카드 등 금융상품 확대(소파이 벤치마크) ④알트코인 상장 ⑤소셜 피드(퍼블릭닷컴 방식), 인플루언서 연계 ⑥자체 미디어(로빈후드판 CNBC) 구축. 리스크: 사용자 성장 둔화, 밈주식·암호화폐 붐 소멸에 따른 거래량 감소, 페니스톡 전락 가능성. 향후 주가 방향에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 예측은 없음, 장기적으로 생존 여부 불확실.
다듬은 글
hey everybody welcome back to the channel we have some really bad news today about robin hood and i actually feel bad about this because i like robin hood i use robin hood i don't use weeble i don't use fidelity i don't use all those other apps like and those are all fine apps i just like robinhood because i was introduced to robinhood in 2019 i started using robinhood the whole gamestop amc happened i was like yes it's crazy it's bad it's definitely bad for robin hood but i still use the app because it's easy and there's confetti that blows up when i buy a stock now i'm just kidding but look it's simple to use easy consumer face i don't need something super complex when i start managing a lot more money hopefully in the future i will be using complex things but for now robinhood is fine and kathy wood owns about 14 million shares of robin hood and the really sad part about their earnings numbers that just came out that we're about to get into is that robin hood was at all-time highs of 85 now it's around 10 it was at 980 last night when earnings came out it is four dollars away from being a penny stock because or less than four dollars away from being a penny stock if you're about under five dollars you're considered a penny stock on the market and guess what most funds most institutions are not allowed from their own guidelines which is kind of mainstream across all hedge funds and institutions that exist on wall street to even have penny stocks in their portfolio like most of them it's so risky to have a stock that's under five dollars because so many things can happen because the stock is under five dollars in terms of even getting de-listed from the nasdaq if it drops under one dollar and then you got reverse splits you have so many risks and volatility associated with the stock that's under five dollars a considered penny stock that doesn't exist with all these other types of stocks that wall street usually stays away from it robin hood the application the platform that brought millions of new users into investing into stunks into the world of finance and crypto and all this stuff and most likely accumulated around billions of dollars of additional value going into the market given how many people were using that platform to start trading that have never traded before is now a couple of dollars away from being considered a penny stock kathy wood might have around 14 million shares of a penny stock that was once 85 85 to 10 is like dot com level crashes to me so the question becomes can robin hood get out of this we're gonna go through some of their q3 earnings because our q4 earnings because it was pretty rough um it was rough there's nothing else to say about that and then we're gonna see if there's some optimism for them to be able to get out of this so key takeaways robin hood anticipates their first quarter revenue of less than 340 million dollars down 35 compared with 2021 which is guidance for q1 2022.
wall street expected 448 million of dollars of revenue in q1 that is why um the there's there the shares tank 15 because wall street wanted 448 million for q1 of 202. robin is like hey we're probably going to do 340 million so their guidance was lower that much which is why their share price right monthly active users fell to 17.3 million last quarter compared to 18.9 million in the third quarter and i think this is the big part robin hood needs people to trade on the platform in order for the platform to make any sense like if you're not trading on the platform robinhood's not making any money because robinhood doesn't get paid for a commission robin hood doesn't have like some type of monthly subscription fee unless you pay for robin ho robin hood gold you need to be making trades and robinhood takes the data from those trades and sells it to other hedge funds and institutions it is called payment for order flow that is their business model so the more people that are doing activity on robinhood robinhood gets to take that data and sell it to market makers and hedge funds and places like citadel et cetera and they use that data to conduct their own trades which is why the whole concept of robinhood is kind of ridiculous because it's like you know bro the whole concept of robinhood is take from the rich and give to the poor but like the poor are like trading on this app and all that data is going to the rich so it's like it's always been a weird uni like like like paradoxical like concept but nonetheless the app was good right it was consumer friendly and like people liked it but 17.3 million people using it over eight from eight down from 18.9 million is bad because that means the company's not growing and in a high growth tech company a company that kathy wood brought 14 million shares of you need to be growing it can't be de-accelerating for the fourth quarter of 2021 robin hood reported a net loss of 423 million or a 49 loss per diluted share wider than the 45 or 45 loss estimated collected by wall street however robin hood posted 363 million in revenue in the final three months of 2021 slightly above the analyst expectations of 362.1 so they whopped up a measly 900 000 and they beat expectations now their stock is down more than 86 from its recent highs shares are down more than 34 from january bringing its market cap to just 10 billion dollars we're talking about uh we're talking about a company that at one point was reaching a hundred billion dollars in market cap and now it is at 10 billion dollars of total estimated value for the company fourth quarter transaction based revenue was 264 million options trading was about 163 million cryptocurrency added about 48 million and equities contributed to about 52 million now revenue from crypto has been declining since the second quarter of 2021 which is also really bad after they made 233 million dollars in q2 of 2021 this was the whole gamestop amc stuff and dogecoin crypto based revenue was only 51 million dollars in the third quarter so they went from 233 down four times to 51 million dollars uh and thursday's report is showing that it's going to continue to decline going forward so how does robin hood get out of this now i don't have a position in robin hood and the reason i don't have a position in robin hood even though one of my philosophies is like by companies you can actually understand you can invest in that you have a that you have an understanding of it and sort of an intimate relationship with this is why i like facebook and i have sort of a thesis on why i think facebook can is massively undervalued right now robin is a product i use every day intimately i mean it controls my money right and whether you agree or disagree with that i continue to use it because it's easy to use right now and i don't really need the need for anything else but robinhood has a problem because if robin hood can't get more and more people to expand into their ecosystem they're simply not going to grow and at this point if they're not growing they're not getting enough level of users to for it to become that sort of mainstay consumer-facing gap that everyone uses for investing now the sad part about this is a lot of the reason why there's been such a massive decline is because when robin hood popped uh it was because of amc gamestop and dogecoin dogecoin had a lot of crypto trading amc and gamestop had a lot of crazy volatility and people were using robinhood to be able to share trades and it gave robinhood all this free publicity like a lot of people didn't really know about robinhood the pandemic happened more people want to start getting into investing robin hood was the obvious option and then all these other multiple catalysts happen the reason i never bought shares of robinhood is because i always saw those things that are happening as like you know things that shouldn't be pumping up the stock price right i think they ipo at 38 which like to me it seemed reasonable but i was also just like 38 for this like it didn't really make a lot of sense and then you see kathy woods buying so much of it and she's buying in 40s and 50s and i'm like i guess i'm wrong i guess she knows something that i don't know about robin hood and then you start to realize wait a second a lot of the reasons they were posing those revenues was because of external things that were happening it wasn't like this organic type of growth and when you have these you know highs that are in in the middle of user growth and and company mainstream media coverage and it falls down because those things go away then you don't have this sort of organic graph going up into the right that's a more positive slope curve you just have these weird roller coaster graphs and a lot of those rollercoaster graphs sometimes can go well but if you don't capitalize on those moments and eventually get it to be organically growing it's not going to work out so what can be done for robin hood this is the question and i want something to be done for robin because i use robin hood uh imagine going to a penny stock is kind of crazy for me because a penny stock to me is almost like is it going to get de-listed or companies gonna have to sell it off or hedge funds gonna have to get rid of it and i'm like that's not possible because 17 million people are using this thing right like it has to have some value there's no way it can just like go out of business so i don't think robin's going about a business but there's a couple things they need to do number one first and foremost crypto wallets we've got to get crypto wallets into robin hood i will consider maybe opening up a position in robin hood uh from an investing perspective if they get crypto wallets because if they're already sort of an epicenter for cryptocurrency trading that is free remember you can't trade cryptocurrencies for free on coinbase you have to pay a transaction that's why i know a lot of people that do bitcoin and ethereum on robin who do they get the best prices no can they take the cryptocurrencies outside of robin hood no but if you're just doing it from a speculative perspective it's which i think most of cryptocurrency is going to be for the next five six years robinhood can capitalize on that but the problem is they don't have these crypto wallets and the crypto community wants the crypto wallets until you get the crypto wallets you're not gonna get massive user adoption that's the first thing i think they need to do number two they need to introduce nfts they need to do nfcs coinbase is doing nfts opencv is doing nfts openc's valued literally openc is valued more on the private markets than robinhood is on the public markets right now robin hood is a market capitalization of 10 billion open c which is the largest world's marketplace for nfts just raised a series c round of around 300 million dollars evaluating it at 13.3 billion dollars so it's valued more on the private markets than robin hood on the public markets robinhood needs to introduce nfts i don't know how they do that um but they have to create a mechanism by which nfts can be traded on the platform in a way that allows it to blend with the cryptocurrency trading they have again i don't know how they get that done but if they can tap into that community i think there's a community of people there that would support it number three have to roll out new financial products as soon as possible like they just have to robinhood stock will not survive unless there is a 401k a roth ira maybe a checkings in a savings account they need to like begin debit cards to people as soon as po like as fast as possible i know they have some debit cards but like they've got to innovate the whole suite of financial services i've heard of what sofi is doing is challenging robinhood to such an extent because even though they're not doing all this trading stuff sofi is like actually having the suite of financial services that they're offering to people retirement insurance loans all of this stuff right robinhood needs to integrate that immediately and every week they should be introducing a new and new and new feature that gets more and more people excited about going to the product and having that product be the one-stop shop for all their financial needs next robinhood needs to introduce old coins if they have old coins if they had shiba you do by now and robin hood i mean there would be a so much more trading all they have is doge ethan bitcoin like why aren't the world's old coins tradable on robin hood like they've got to be able to think about that stuff it's not like it's exclusively has to happen on coinbase obviously coinbase is more native to it because it's rooted in crypto so they're more easily able to integrate it faster and more efficiently and productively but robin it has a lot of people using crypto if they can get all those old coins that's a ton of more trading revenue and more trading activity happening on the platform okay finally i think they need to do a social media play i think that robin hood if they can integrate what public.com is doing uh public.com is like when you trade like it like goes into like an algorithmic feed and you can see what other people are trading and they get all these big influencers like graham stefan for example who's big on youtube and he's buys apple like and everyone gets to see those updates in real time what he's buying it's a cool little thing i don't think it saves the company but i think it at least gets them more marketing right like first of all vlad needs to be doing more interviews i don't know where the hell vlad is he was doing some interviews in 2021 and now he disappeared he needs to be on a new podcast every single week i don't know why they don't have him on a new podcast every week just like with a bunch of random people they're not gonna ask him the hardest questions in the world he'll get more publicity number two when you have the ceo doing all these public interviews and then you integrate a sort of social media plan to robin hood where you can buy and sell stuff and it goes into a feed and other people can see what you're buying and selling and comment and like that stuff well there's some real big potential there in terms of creating a more social dynamic and keeping people on the app so those 17 3 million people even if that goes down to 17.2 you at least have people doing more activity because they're using the platform more every day you're getting more of their time that your ap ru your average revenue per user or arpu uh ends up going up so even if their user growth is going to keep slowing down which they're projecting it's going to keep slowing down at least we can get more money out of them because they're using the product more that is the potential to scale as well finally here's my wild card maybe start a media company maybe robin hood media robin hood is a brokerage but maybe if robin hood has a media play and they like start creating a ton of content around business and like like they make their version of cnbc i mean who knows cnbc is a multi-billion dollar company they covered news 24 7.
why can't robin hood invest you know some hundreds of millions of dollars into creating their version of cnbc and then have a sort of advertising piece of revenue that's coming into the platform and like imagine imagine robin hood had 10 shows that was producing uh three videos a day on youtube you have 30 pieces of content that are all sponsored by none other than robinhood constantly going out into the internet then those 30 videos become you know 10 clips each on instagram twitter and and facebook and like snapchat and tick tock and now you have all of this media around robin hood's version of cnbc constantly going out every single day just like the real cnbc has uh even though cnbc is on tv if robinhood was to do that through digital stuff and you're talking about podcasts and articles i mean they could really take over a digital media presence by creating their own media company within robinhood and all of that is going to be constantly sponsored by robinhood reinforcing the brand hopefully getting people to come use this freaking platform those are my thoughts and recommendations and suggestions on what i think robinhood needs to do because they've got to do something leave it in the comments what do you think they can do do you have a position in robin hood are you buying the dip are you waiting to get it for it to get to a better price what are your thoughts on this stock let me know your thoughts let me know your comments let me know your suggestions for how robin hood can improve looking forward to reading them my name is mitt i'll see you in the next one
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