저자: JosephHogue,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 수요로 매출이 급성장(2024 예상 매출 약 1,000억 달러 이상)했으나 주가가 18개월간 600% 상승해 고평가 우려가 큼. 2027년 매출 1,560억 달러, EPS 35달러 추정 기준 P/S 18.4배 또는 P/E 64.8배를 적용하면 목표가 1,150~2,268달러, 최소 1,300달러(약 49% 상승 여지)로 제시. 그러나 단기 조정 위험이 있어 커버드 스트래들, 합성 롱, 프로텍티브 풋 등 옵션 전략을 소개하며 영상 후반부는 옵션 강의 홍보 중심.
다듬은 글
shares of Nvidia are on fire up 600% in the last 18 months after the AI Powerhouse grew Revenue by 125% sales are expected to jump another 80% this year past a hundred billion and that's still a fraction of what Nvidia thinks it can grab in a trillion do Market but that 600% return Skyhigh valuation of 72 times on a PE basis and the $900 stock price has investors worried it's setting us up for a giant rug pull hey Bai Nation Joseph hog here and whether you've invested in Nvidia or not two facts are undeniable one the company will dominate The Still developing market for AI and you need money invested in that but also that shares of Nvidia have run so high so fast that there is a real risk of a major pullback now I'm Up 3 66% onto my Nvidia and you'll have to pry it for my cold dead hands but I also remember some spectacular rug PS like Bitcoin falling 75% post pandemic Tesla down 67% from its peak and even Amazon way back in 2001 falling 95% from its peak yeah I'm that old but I've just found a way to get shares for as much as 88% off the current price nearly an $800 discount a price that even in a pullback would be a great deal and a huge opportunity if you're still waiting to invest I'm going to highlight why Nvidia will continue to dominate the AI theme a price forecast for the next three years and then three strategies to get the shares for Less reduce your risk and for a lower valuation first trying to estimate a fair price Target for shares of Nvidia investors have to wonder if the company can keep up this break neck speed Nvidia more than doubled sales last year grew Revenue by 126% to $6.9 billion a pace you have to think slows down eventually but against that management estimates a $1 trillion Market opportunity in AI autonomous and digitalization a trillion dollar market Revenue per year that is still a lot of runway for growth for a company dominating the market and still only at 61 billion a year in sales and here I'm watching two catalysts that could drive Revenue growth over the next couple of years first initial reports and estimates are that the company will start its Blackwell GPU architecture around $330,000 compared to its h100 card it was selling for $ 25,000 but the Blackwell will have more than twice as many transistors and much more processing power making it a very good deal at that price that should drive strong adoption of the new model and further win market share another Catalyst could be the transition from a component's focus like how it sold the hopper 100 as a card to focusing on selling the entire rack with the gb200 it's a much higher value added strategy and should continue to boost revenue on that if we look at earnings and revenue estimates from analysts we see an average profit forecast of $35 a share through 2027 on a sales forecast of 156 billion for the year that would be annualized earnings growth of 39% and sales growth of 36% over the 3-year period it's a Slowdown from last year's crazy Pace but I think reasonable over the long run and still extremely strong growth for a $2 trillion company but shares have been so hot over the past year that I wanted to get a longer term view of the price valuation multiples investors can get over excited about a stock pushing that price to earnings or the price to sales multiples into nobly territories then get caught even when the earnings and sales increase the stock price Falls because if those multiples come down think about it this way if a company is earning $5 a share but the market is going Gaga and investors are paying a price of 30 times earnings or $150 share price the company could grow its profits by 50% to $7.50 a share but if the market decides to move on and investor enthusiasm falls to the point where they only want to pay 20 times their earnings then the stock price went nowhere that's the real problem these hyper growth stocks so I wanted to see what a historical price multiple for NVIDIA might look like it and test out our earnings and sales forecasts against that we see here in Morning Star data that the price to sales has traded from a low of just 6.7 times in 2018 to a high of 35 times Revenue this year it's a huge range so we're going to go with the 18.4 times average over the last 5 years which is nearly half the current price to sells multiple so I feel like that's going to be a good safe side estimate if we apply that to our 2027 Target so 18.4 times the revenue Target of 156 billion we get a$ 2.87 trillion company or approximately $1,150 per share on the price to earning side we see a range between $18 times in 2018 which was obviously a very bad year all the way up to 90 times PE ratio in 2012 21 again we'll use the 64.8 times price to earnings which I feel like might not be quite as conservative but still a good multiple to use so applying that 64.8 times price to earnings ratio to the forecast of $35 2027 per share earnings we get a share price as high as $2,268 each nearly double the forecast on the price to sales multiple now that $2,268 price Target might be a little aggressive and the 1150 Target overly conservative but I feel confident in a price Target of at least $1,300 per share which would be a 49% return from here but that $1,300 price Target is a long-term forecast a model of what Nvidia stock could be worth as that AI theme develops and we could still be in for a short-term pullback if investors get worried and those worries center around three problems the Stock's High valuation multiple the high stock price and the giant return it's booked in such a short term I'm going to show you an option strategy for each one of these that will not only let you ride the stock higher long term but also get you in at a lower price price reduced risk and lower valuation the biggest worry for NVIDIA investors is that Skyhigh valuation on the stock that 80% Revenue growth and nearly doubling in earnings is great but with a price to earnings valuation of 35 times this year's expected profits how much that future growth is already priced into the shares remember whenever you look at these price valuations like price to earnings and price to sales you want to compare that the current measure against a company's own history as well as against its peers we see here that Nvidia is now trading at a price of more than 35 times its forward earnings well above the 25 multiple we saw in October of last year and even higher than the 18 times it saw back in 2018 but actually not too expensive compared to where it's traded over the past year here comparing it against a competitor like Advanced Micro Devices AMD we see an even higher valuation so Nvidia at 35 times expected earnings doesn't seem too bad of course the big risk here is that if Nvidia even stumbles a little bit along that growth projection even if a growth comes down just a little little then the market is going to start to rethink those price multiples if share prices were to suddenly start trading for 25 times expected earnings that would be a 28% hit to the stock price but reducing the risk of this is one of my favorite hedging strategies the covered straddle this is going to be similar to the covered call strategy some of you are familiar with but with an extra bit of protection it's where you buy the stock see here it says you buy long 100 shares and at the same time sell a call option and a put option against those shares now I'm going to link to an options explainer video in the description but this means you're collecting cash immediately for selling those two options using it to offset the price you paid for the stock and lower your risk for example if we were to buy shares of Nvidia for $869 here then we can see in the options table we can sell the call options at the $860 strike price expiring January of next year for $168 43 and then the puts for $22.76 each that means another investor is going to give us the $291 19 cash right now for selling those options in effect it's going to lower the price we pay for the stock from $869 73 minus that $ 29119 or down to $578 54 that's a 33% discount I know a lot of you are still new to options so I want to walk through what this means because it can be a great way to get that upside to shares of Nvidia but also reduce your risk immensely we see here in the payoff graph since we sold those call and put options and collected nearly $300 on the stock we don't start losing money on this unless Nvidia crashes to that $578 a share through January Nvidia would have to fall by a third and even then we'd still own the shares at a huge discount for a solid long-term return the only downside to this strategy is that your upside profit is capped since you did sell those call options but at any price above $860 per share you're going to make 49% return that's the $860 per share the price at which the other investor is going to buy it from you with those call options divided by the $578 each that you paid after collecting all that cash then how this strategy fixes that price to earnings valuation problem getting shares of Nvidia at $578 each for that 33% discount would be like getting them for a Ford price to earnings of just 23.5 times lower than any valuation the stock has had in the last 6 years and you can play around with the options you use as selling the options at a higher strike price for the higher potential return but any way you try it that covered straddle strategy is a great way to get shares of Nvidia for a steep valuation discount I'm going to highlight two more option strategies one that gets you the upside to Nvidia stock for just $1.79 a share but check out the launch of my ultimate options course for all 29 option strategies the option strategies in this video are some of my favorite but in the course I'll take you step by step into 29 strategies including one that'll make your money back fast in a losing stock whether you've never invested in options or already know the basics this course is going to teach you everything you need to know about using options to increase returns lower your risk of a crash and even generate income every month over 3 hours of video I start with the basics then walk you through each option strategy when to use it and how to set it up including a real world example with shares of Tesla the course also comes with a one-of-a-kind strategy finder to help you find the right option strategy and an options calculator to show you exactly what to expect and right now I'm launching the course at a 38% discount save $150 off but only for the next 3 days you'll get all the basics to get you started the strategy finder to make sure you're using the best strategy the options calculator to show you exactly how much you can make walkthroughs on all 29 strategies and a 14-day money back guarantee that $150 launch discount is only available with the coupon code in the link below so I'll leave that in the description or just scan the QR code here now the stock price shouldn't matter but it does and that nearly $900 stock price for shares of Nvidia means a lot of investors Can't Buy in and I say stock price shouldn't matter because a lot of investing platforms will let you buy fractional shares invest however much you want to and buy a piece of the share for less but unfortunately it's not available on all platforms that $900 share price is a non-starter for those investors but here the synthetic long option strategy is the perfect solution and gives you the same upside in a Stock's price at a fraction of the cost the synthetic stock is exactly that a way to get the same payoff in a stock from just options and it really shows the power of options investing here you buy a call option and sell a put both at the same strike price that gives you the right to buy shares for the set call Price and the obligation to buy at that put price I know the math behind this can be confusing so I'm going to show you an example but this simple strategy gives you the same exposure to Nvidia shares as buying the stock for example we'll use the $800 strike price for options expiring January next year we see here we would pay $196 each for those call options but then collect $942 by selling the put options that is a total cost of just $11.7 for the upside exposure to shares of Nvidia an 88% discount to the current price now since option contracts trade for 100 shares each your total investment would be just under $10,200 instead of the $887,000 it would cost to buy the stock and to that here you see in the payoff chart you make money as shares of Nvidia rise further if Nvidia Rises to just over $1,000 each by January you make nearly $122,000 on your position and the downside of of course is just like owning the stock you're going to lose money if Nvidia Falls so this strategy doesn't provide that kind of downside protection but can be a great way to get the stock for Less now as with all option strategies there is an expiration on these you're going to have to renew that strategy each time those options expire which is why I like using those longer term options the ones that expire each January but you can do this with monthly options as well and here for the really risk-averse investors the ones worried about a big drop in shares of Nvidia after that astonishing 600% run we've got total down side protection in the married put strategy this is where you own the stock but also buy a put option to protect yourself from a crash in the shares this is also called a protective put because you see here it totally protects you from losses after a certain point for example if we bought shares of Nvidia for $863 each and also bought the put options at this $800 strike expiring in January for $94 that gives us the right to sell Nvidia for $800 each with those puts if they fall below there totally protecting us from a big crash in the stock you can see how this works in the payoff chart if the price of Nvidia Falls more than 8% to $800 a share that's where your losses stop you can then use that put option you bought to sell the stock for that much no matter how much further it drops in fact if Nvidia Falls to $700 each you could sell your shares for $800 and immediately turn around and buy them at the market price of $700 keeping that long-term exposure but not having to worry about a near-term crash now the downside is that for that protection it does increase your cost in the shares since you paid $869 for the shares and then $94 for the put option protection you need Nvidia to rise above $963,000 on the ultimate options course from beginner to 29 option strategies you can use on Nvidia or any stock don't wait though because that launch discount is only open for the next 3 days don't forget to join the let's talk money Community by tapping that subscribe button and clicking the Bell notification
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