저자: JosephHogue,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
GME는 단기 가격·거래량 모멘텀과 높은 RSI(75), 고평가 및 실적 기대 부담으로 보유 평가(지수 62). TSLA는 거래량 약세, 소셜 관심 급감, RSI 73, 높은 밸류에이션으로 보유 평가(지수 43, 단기 매도 여지). NVDA는 실적 발표 전 거래량 부진과 소셜 관심 하락, 상대적으로 저렴한 밸류에이션을 고려해 지수 39(매도 구간), 실적 후 급락 시 저가 매수 입장.
다듬은 글
Hey, bow tie nation. Joseph Hog here and excited for a new series here on the channel analyzing the most popular stocks in the market. Every Wednesday, I'll be digging into the near-term momentum, investor sentiment, technical indicators, and valuation, feeding all this into our own exclusive investor momentum index, a score you won't find anywhere else for a buy, hold, or sell decision.
And this week, I'll be analyzing GameStop, ticker GME, the meme stock that refuses to die. Tesla, ticker TSLA, everyone's favorite emotional roller coaster, and Nvidia, ticker NVDA, the AI Darling with a huge earnings report coming today. And first on our list today, the first big moonshot retail stock itself, Gamestock, ticker GME, up 22% in the last five trading days, just blowing the door off of the market, down 1%.
So, some very strong price momentum and on good volume as well. And that's going to be one of the most important signs in these stocks that we're going to be watching for. Those important signs for momentum that you want to follow if you're going to be in and out of these stocks or just as an indicator of direction.
The average daily volume of shares traded for GameStop is around 11 million shares with the last 5 days hitting an average of 13.7 million shares a day or a spike of 25% on that longerterm average. Now, that is positive for the price direction, an increase in price on higher average volume. That's going to show the conviction on the part of the buyers.
Whereas, if the volume was maybe below average, we'd say that maybe investors weren't as confident in those price gains. Using the alt index platform that tracks Reddit mentions as well as across other social sites, we do see that GameStop saw 13% fewer mentions over the last week. So, little bit of a contradiction there against that volume measure.
While GME is always a big topic of conversation with over 4,000 mentions a week, it slowed down over the last week. Now, on the three-month change, GameStop did see a solid 13% increase in the mentions and a boom in mentions on Stock Twits up 164% and on Twitter of 46%. So, so still some strength there despite that oneweek slowdown.
Nation, that type of social sentiment and the direction has become a huge indicator over the past few years as retail investors take control of the markets. It's no longer the big money institutional investors or the hedge funds. So, this kind of investor sentiment is a mustwatch for that near-term direction on a stock.
On the relative strength index or the RSI, GameStop is at 75, which is high into overbought territory. And the RSI measures price momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, measuring the price changes upward and downward to give you a sense of that recent price movement compared with the past. Anything over 70 means the stock is overbought and could be ready to cool off, while an RSI under 20 is oversold.
could mean the sellers are exhausted, which could send the shares bouncing higher. I've copied the longerterm RSI here below, so you can see the stock is right now at its most overbought of the year. And against all of this, valuation is something of a contradiction here. While the price of a 100 times earnings would be ridiculously high for any other stock, it's actually lower than where GameStop has traded over the past three quarters.
On a price to revenue basis, though, the stock is much more expensive than its past average. So, I'd say overall expensive to very expensive at this point. We do have earnings coming up on June 9th when GameStop is expected to report a drop of 14% in revenue though positive earnings of 4 cents a share.
The company surprised on earnings by an average of 228% over the past 3 quarters. So expectations here are high and with fullear sales expected lower by 7% it could be setting us up for disappointment. So, taking all those near-term factors together, strong price and volume momentum to the upside, but weakening social sentiment, an overbought RSI indicator, and an expensive valuation, feeding these into our investor momentum index, get a score of 62 out of 100, firmly in the hold zone.
Now, that price momentum can change fast, though, especially on that dangerously high RSI and upcoming news for earnings. We'll get to that buy, sell, or hold on shares of Tesla and Nvidia next. But if you've ever wondered what's in my portfolio or just want to see the stocks I'm buying, you can now by joining me on the Blossom Social Investing app.
This isn't just another app, though. You can connect your brokerage accounts or just input your portfolio to track all your stocks in one place. You're going to see insights like portfolio percentages and the average dividend yield across the entire group. You'll also be able to join more than 250,000 investors in the social feed to see what everyone is talking about.
Now, I've shared my app on the portfolio and it's totally free to download. So, look for the special invite link I'm going to leave in the description below and check that out. Next up, constantly in the news this year, shares of Tesla Inc., ticker TSLA, up almost 4% over the last week. So, beating the market, but down about 12% so far this year.
5-day average volume, though, has been only about 92 million shares against a 30-day average of 126 million shares daily. So, that weaker volume trend may indicate the price momentum isn't that strong, that investors aren't as confident in buying as they might appear. And Tesla also saw fewer mentions last week on Reddit.
It was the fourth most mentioned stock on the platform with about 2488 mentions, but that was 16% lower than the week before. On the 3-month activity, Tesla saw a big drop on Reddit mentions, down 82% to almost 400 mentions a day. A similar drop of 41% on Stock Twits and down 60% on Musk's own Xplatform.
So definitely a drop in that social investor sentiment. On our relative strength indicator, the RSI, Tesla sits at 73, which again, anything over 70 suggests the stock is overbought on that short-term basis and may be due for a pullback or at least a pause in that momentum. Looking at the year-to- date chart, the RSI is near its peak and has been there for most of the last month.
None of this guarantees a pullback in price, but you do see that where it's dropped off from this level in the past. First quarter earnings have already been reported with a 34% missed to expectations and Tesla has missed its forecasted earnings in three of the last four quarters. We won't see another earnings report until July 21st.
So, it's going to be up to news to move this stock. Earnings for the second quarter are expected lower by 12% on a 7% drop in revenue for the quarter, while a full year revenue is expected flat with a big 21% drop in earnings as the company struggles with that political risk. here. You might think with those lower earnings, the shares might offer a deal on valuations.
But we see just the opposite here. Shares of Tesla are more expensive than they have been over the past year with a price to earnings ratio of 193 times, more than twice as expensive as the average 90 PE ratio over the last year. And at a price to sales ratio of 12.4 times, it's pointing to expensive as well.
So, putting all this together, while I do think there's potential for Musk to surprise investors as he refocuses on the company, and that could recharge some of the sentiment, given the volume weakness, the social sentiment that has plunged and RSI into overbought territory and relatively expensive shares, Tesla scores a 43 on our investor momentum index, still in that hold zone, but only just barely.
Were it not for Musk's newfound focus, I'd put this one as a short-term sell as well, and wait for a better price. Shares of Nvidia are going to be the big news this week. And I'm going to dig into that recent news next, but the direction of any stock is always going to be partly a factor of the overall market as well.
So, don't miss our weekly market update on Mondays linked in the corner here. In this week's update, I revealed the real reason stocks are in trouble. Plus, one of the most accurate economic indicators you can find, the stripper index, and what it's saying right now. And on that, Nvidia ticker NVDA is going to be a tough one here because we're going to see earnings reported tonight after the close.
So any near-term momentum might not count for as much. Shares are basically flat over the past week, just edging out that loss on the overall market, and volume has been light. Over the past week, just 202 million shares were traded each day versus an average of 282 million a day over the last month.
So again, some lack of conviction on the part of buyers and a lot of that uncertainty ahead of earnings. Nvidia was the third most discussed stock on Reddit last week, but with only 2,800 mentions, it was practically crickets compared to the week before with a 45% drop in those mentions. Over the longer 3-month period, we do see that same slowdown we saw with Tesla.
Here, an 80% drop in the number of daily mentions on Reddit, down 60% on Stock Twits, and down 78% on X. So, clearly investors less excited about the stock. Now, shares are not quite so overbought here with a 67 on the relative strength indicator. Now, of course, it's not even close to that 20 level that would indicate a short-term oversold condition, but doesn't mean a correction is imminent either.
I'd like to see this down below 60 or 50, but Vidia isn't as overbought as the other two stocks here. Again, though, the big news for Nvidia is going to be that coming earnings report with the company expected to report another revenue surge of 66% from last year's quarter, 23% higher earnings to 75 cents per share.
We can see that Nvidia has beaten forecasts by an average 7% over the last four quarters. This quarter's estimate has come down from 92 cents per share just 3 months ago. So company should be able to report a positive surprise but with a big question mark and that question mark comes on what the company is going to say about its upcoming quarters.
How the chip ban on China is going to affect sales and earnings. We can see that the shares have traded higher in seven of the 11 last earnings reports and with an average upside of almost 11% when it does. But you can also see that the last three quarters have been disappointing. That's because as investors get used to that amazing 60% and higher growth, they come to expect it and anything less is a disappointment.
The upside to all this is that shares are actually pretty cheap here, trading at 44 times earnings and for a price to sales ratio of 25 times. Both of those are a steep discount to where the stock has traded at over the past year and could help support Nvidia shares even if that growth slows a little.
So, putting all this together with the shares pretty much flat on a weak volume, the drop in investor enthusiasm on social, an RSI that isn't overbought, but clearly isn't oversold either, and that steep discount on the valuation that we've seen for the stock. Folks, I'm just plugging in the numbers here, but the investor momentum index is flashing red with a sell zone at 39 for Nvidia ahead of its earnings.
Now, I would definitely be buying any dip in earnings. So, if we do see the shares drop, then pick up on that long-term growth story. Right now, that short-term drop in momentum and the risk, I'm steering clearer. Join me on the Blossom Investing app to see the stocks I'm buying and what over 250,000 investors are talking about free with the invite link in the description below.
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