저자: JosephHogue,CFA · 외국인
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버핏의 최근 13F 포트폴리오 변화 분석과 주간 시장 전망 영상입니다. 버핏의 최근 분기 매도 내역: GM 전량 매도(2012년부터 보유), 존슨앤드존슨·P&G·UBS 등 7개 종목 전량 정리로 9개월간 약 240억 달러 회수, 셰브론 약 20억 달러 축소, 애플 비중은 여전히 절반 가까이. 현금 보유액은 약 1,570억 달러로 애플 다음 규모이며, 무위험 자산 수익률이 높아 가치투자 기회가 제한적이라는 진단. 개별 종목: 애드밴스드오토파츠(AAP)는 실적 부진으로 10% 하락했으나 매각·자사주 매입 기대로 보유 의견. 차지포인트(CHPT)는 매출 쇼크와 CEO·CFO 교체로 35% 급락했지만 충전 인프라 성장성을 이유로 보유. 엔비디아는 실적 발표를 앞두고 주가가 올해 233% 올랐으나 공매도 논란이 있으며, 실적으로 고평가 부담을 해소할지 주목. 금리: 10년물 국채금리가 10월 중순 5%대에서 4.4% 수준으로 약 56bp 하락. 이로 인해 부동산(XLRE) 등 금리민감 섹터와 태양광 주식이 강세. 진행자는 금리 급락이 지속 가능한지 의문을 제기. 향후 전망: 이번 주는 경제지표·실적 발표가 적어 투자심리에 좌우될 전망. 월말 PCE 물가와 12월 첫 금요일 고용지표가 둔화 가설을 확인하는 핵심 변수. 진행자는 향후 2주간 시장이 보합 또는 소폭 하락할 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
Hey bow tie Nation Joseph hog here thank you for joining us for a Monday market update 9:00 a.m. eastern every Monday morning get you ready for the week stocks to watch economic news that could guide the market this week the market is up 10% from its late October low and 326 of the stocks in the S&P 500 are up just over the last month there is one bigname investor though that's not buying the bull market Warren Buffett has sold billions of dollars of stock just over the last three months and is sitting on a record amount of cash does the Oracle of Omaha know something that we don't about the stock market we're going to dig deep into the birkshire Hathway's recent stock changes stick around after that we'll do our Monday market update with all the stocks I'm watching this week and the economic news you need to see we'll look at those stocks Warren Buffett is selling next but first if you want to see the five stocks I'm buying over the next 30 Years my forever stocks look for the link I'll leave in the description below it's a free report I put together with the mly fool some of the biggest stocks in my portfolio that report is totally free you'll see the first stock immediately and they'll email you the full report with the other stocks these are some of my favorite stocks to buy so look for that link in the description below or just scan the QR code here back to our main topic though because Warren Buffett's birkshire hathway has reported quarterly changes to its stock portfolio showing what the Oracle of Omaha is buying and selling or just selling that's because the only new Investments to the portfolio or an $8 million stake in the Atlanta Braves Holdings and $44 million in Sirius XM combined it's a poultry 0.17% of his $313 billion portfolio and Warren Buffett has always been a big baseball fan and the Braves were spun off from one of his other Holdings Liberty Media over the summer so he's basically just keeping that position by buying into the new ownership Buffett completely cashed out of seven companies pocketing nearly $24 billion in the first 9 months of the year most surprising was a complete exit of his $850 million stake in GM a position Buffett has been in since 2012 he also sold out of Monda Johnson and Johnson Proctor and Gamble UBS and seling these during the quarter Buffett also trimmed some of his exposures selling $2 billion in shares of Chevron or about 10% of his Holdings he still owns over $15 billion in the oil company so it might not be so much a negative call on oil or oil stocks he also sold 520 million in shares of HP though still holds 2.7 billion of that stock Amazon also got cut $70 million with remaining Holdings over 1.4 billion in the e-commerce giant Now by ditching those shares of GM Buffett might be saying that he's finally tired of just hoping that the car makers can prove his value thesis after the recent Union agreements Legacy automakers like Ford like GM going to be saddled with huge wage expenses that they're going to make it even harder to compete with those non-union makers with nearly half of his money in apple the bursha hathway portfolio is basically just a beted on Apple with a few side butts here after Apple the next 10 stocks make up more than 34s of the remaining portfolio in fact the remaining 40 stocks are just 10% of assets so while Buffett's $2.8 billion stake in EV maker byd is a lot of money it's relatively insignificant to the portfolio at just8 % of total assets that means shares of byd could triple and it would still only be a blip on the portfolio's value more than anything I think the quarter changes really strike me as consolidation more than anything else Buffett's portfolio has always been a lesson in his anti- diversification Credo and it's becoming ever more so each quarter Buffett and his team there at burkart seem to be saying that we really like these top 10 companies and these 40 are okay also within those biggest bets and excluding the giant investment in consumer electronics Apple Buffett has f 54.6 billion or 15% in the financials companies 29.3 billion or 8% of his portfolio in oil companies 33.8 billion or 9% in consumer staples here and about $1 15.5 billion or about 4% of the portfolio just in Japanese stocks one of the biggest lessons to the report is Buffett is once again saying that there's relatively few opportunities out there for a value investor especially when you can get close to 5% Returns on risk-free treasuries and CDs the portfolio is is now sitting on $157 billion in cash most of it invested in those treasury notes that's second only to its investment in apple and no other company even comes close to that investment size I have some of my money in t bills but also have a lot of my cash in this no penalty CD at CIT Bank these pay 4.9% so a little lower than the treasuries but you have instant access to your money without the regular penalties you get with CDs you earn interest daily on these with no opening or maintenance fees and it's all FDIC insured so I'll link to that no penalty CD in the description below as well as some of the other ways I'm investing my cash right now turning it over to some of the stocks I'm watching this week despite the fact that the market was up over 2% last week there were some major changes in the portfolio so I wanted to address those talk about some of the stocks that did fall last week first off here Advanced Auto Parts ticker aab reported disappointing earnings and saw the stock crushed 10% last week the company did beat its Revenue expectations for about 3% growth over the year at $2.7 billion but reported an operating loss of 43 million down from a profit of 171 million in the same quarter last year now Advance has struggled to compete with its peers for years and this new CEO is trying to turn the company around but that doesn't happen overnight and it's not having much success just yet still the company has $317 million in cash enough to carry it through a transition and news that it's looking to sell its 320 World pack and or 1300 Car Quest stores could be a big move just that world pack segment alone could get billions of dollars in a sell that's really going to help it pay down its and what's more important for investors buy back those shares I believe a share buyback program is coming over the next year here could really boost these shares charge Point holding sticker chpt was by far the biggest disappointment for the week when management pre-announced some of its earnings details and a change in leadership the company said it would report sales of just $110 million during the quarter that is far below the 155 million expected by Wall Street charge point also replaced its CEO and CFO in and a surprise move that drove the shares down here you see 35% on Friday now I will continue to hold this stock and the upside potential on EV charging while EV adoption has slowed this year it is still positive and that charging infrastructure that charge Point excels at that leads in needs to grow exponentially for those cars charge Point still has a $396 million in cash and untapped $150 million credit line so that gives it about $550 million in in liquidity and no debt due until 2028 so you've got years have to continue growth and really boost the shares here got to talk about Nvidia Corporation tier nidda is going to be reporting earnings on Tuesday with the stocks price up 233% this year to $1.2 trillion market cap that is a huge change for this company the semiconductor leader is expected to report a 434 per jump in earnings to $310 a share from the last year it's about $10 per share full year earnings that's going to help it bring it down from this an astronomically high PE ratio just a little bit Shar still trade though for 37 times revenue and for recently come under news that short seller Michael bur is shorting the semiconductor stock after this year's strong rally so we're going to see what Nvidia says if it's able to support those prices and prove michaelb wrong showing you the bigger picture here with the sector spiders.
comom sector tracker we can see that over the last 5 days all 11 stock sectors closed higher last week with a rate sensitive sectors seeing really seeing that boost from lower interest rates the interest rate on the 10-year treasury went from 562 to 5.44% the spider real estate ETF the xlre that real estate ETF here is now up 12% since late October really boosted as those lower rates support property values we've been talking about this really the main hurdle for Real Estate right now yes we have a lot of problems in office a lot of problems in individual property types as well but the main problem is those interest rates okay higher interest rates obviously means lower cash flow and lower proper property values for these real estate owners that's why I believe during this next year as the FED actually does start lowering interest rates we're going to see big boost in uh in property values and in these re stocks in these real estate stocks solar energy stocks also got a race supported boost with most solar stocks up more than 10% in Phase alone was jumping 19% last week the big story here folks though while I do believe inflation is on the way lower as we pointed out in last week's update just before that massive CPI report that boosted stocks it's going to continue to support stocks but it's just hard to believe that that giant drop in interest rates over the last few weeks is real okay here we see the interest rate on the 10 year treasury note really The Benchmark for all other rates that 10year treasury topped just over 5% around mid October is now down 56 basis points almost more than half a percent which is a huge move for interest rates to 4.4% last week the drop has recharged that bull market in stocks but just feels a little too far too fast now we won't get much economic data this week or earnings reports to really to support stocks it's all going to be on investor sentiment we're going to have to wait till the end of the month for that pce inflation report for any confirmation on Lower inflation and then the jobs report there in December on the first Friday of the month to to Really support the slowing econom economy thesis I wouldn't be surprised if the market trades flat or slightly lower here for the next two weeks as as really the market digests that drop in interest rates don't forget to look for that link in the description below and get your free report the top stocks in my portfolio my forever stocks or click on the video to the right for the seven monthly dividend stocks that will pay your rent the average rent by state and the stocks that will pay it don't forget to join the let's talk money Community by tapping that subscribe button and clicking that Bell notification
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