저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 모건스탠리의 이튼 밴스 인수는 자산운용 업계 통합 트렌드의 일환이며, 모건스탠리 주가는 약 60달러 가치가 있다는 낙관적 견해. 인수 조건: 이튼 밴스 주당 28.25달러 현금과 모건스탠리 주식 0.5833주 교환, 거래 시작 시점 기준 약 56.50달러 규모로 프리미엄 제시. 업계 통합 전망: 액티브 운용사들이 패시브 등에 밀려 전쟁에서 지고 있어 자산운용 업계 통합이 계속될 것으로 봄. 넬슨 펠츠가 인베스코와 자누스 헨더슨 합병을 추진 중이며, 두 회사도 합병 대상으로 적합하다고 평가. 이튼 밴스 평가: 오랫동안 가장 저평가된 상위 10개 종목 중 하나였으며, 자산 중 상당수가 이탈이 적은 고착성 자산이라는 점이 장점. 모건스탠리 평가: 현금흐름과 실적이 우수한데도 연준 규제 우려 속 저평가된 멀티플을 받고 있다고 지적하며 적정가 약 60달러 제시. 시티그룹 평가: 규제 문제로 악몽 같은 상황이며, 4억 달러 벌금과 문제 해결에 막대한 비용이 필요하다고 봄. 웰스파고도 구조조정을 이어가고 있음. 은행주 전반: 인종 불평등 해소에 300억 달러 투자 발표 등 은행 뉴스가 이어지며, 실적 발표를 앞둔 상황. JP모건은 중립 평가. 버크셔 해서웨이: 뱅크오브아메리카가 버핏의 최대 보유 종목이며, 올해 57% 상승으로 나쁘지 않은 성과. 리스크: 연준 규제 리스크와 은행 규제 이슈가 주요 하방 요인으로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
We haven't gotten to Morgan Stanley Eaton Vance. No, what was that? Why have we decided to blacklist that? I don't know. I mean, isn't he coming on with Wilf later today? Yeah, I guess he is. Yeah. We're talking about James Gorman. That man's on a mission. I'll tell you that. the company and not become the E*TRADE deal what last week?
doesn't want to be Citigroup, right? He's the opposite of Citigroup. Yeah, opposite of Goldman Sachs to a certain extent in some ways, too. Asset management and Right. and um and retail. Yeah. What do you think? I don't know, what do you think? You don't ask me what I think. I'll tell you about the deal.
I think the multiple should be a little bit higher than I asked you about what you think about the company. I Well, I think Morgan Stanley's worth about 60 bucks. They have got great cash flow. They've got great numbers, and yet they get the same multiples a company that it looks like it's going to be slapped down by the Fed any minute.
Look at that uh move in Eaton Vance. Again, for everybody out there, it's 28.25 a share in cash, and then it's 0.5833 of uh of Morgan Stanley. There you can see it right there on your screen. Uh that amounted to about 56.50 at the beginning of trading. Uh Morgan Stanley stock, I think, is uh we just saw it is up uh reacting a bit.
Uh actually, I'm not sure I have it open yet. Um nope, got it down. So, let's call it a $56 deal with a nice premium for Eaton Vance. Overall, uh uh guys, I mean, the potential consolidation in the asset management business, particularly active managers, is just going to continue as they fight off Well, and man, they're fighting a I mean, they're losing this war.
about Nelson Peltz with Invesco and and Janus? Yeah, and that was last week. Nelson Peltz trying taking his position in a significant positions in Invesco and Janus Henderson trying to get them conceivably to get together. Jim, it does seem as though this is going to be a trend we're going to be seeing.
It's already been in place. It's going to continue. Well, you know, when you do screens, well, a lot of people home should understand there's just these constantly you do a screen every morning. What are the cheapest stocks? What are the cheapest stocks? And this Eaton Vance came up. It was a top 10 cheapest stock for ages.
And you kept thinking, when is someone going to do something with Eaton Vance and Invesco? And and finally, uh Mr. Gorman realizes this thing is worth a lot within his company. I think that Nelson uh Nelson is right to push these two Invesco and Janus to merge, but I think that they're ripe for the picking.
People, they have assets. A lot of them are sticky assets. What about some of the bigger platforms? And what do you do even if you're Fidelity? You know, private, enormous, active management a key part of their business. What do you do? Yeah, they do love being private. They do. They're private people.
Yes, they are. a private person. Yes. Very uh very thoughtful. Um not seeking the limelight at all. And maybe that's they just it's a family-run business in the way that we used to see. But there's a sea change going on in this business. That's I mean, it's not as though this has started today. This has been going on for years, but Well, you saw Lloyd Blankfein on this morning.
Uh I didn't listen. Am I allowed to say that? Uh I keep the sound off. Listen. with Lloyd. Okay. Yeah. Goes way back. David, there's a fly on your head. Got it. What do you like? Moe, Larry, and Curly or I just you kind of cut me short there. I mean, Lloyd is Lloyd's a big thinker. I The thing that has trapped Goldman, I believe, and has trapped trapped Gorman, they aren't getting any credit for being trans transactional houses as opposed to houses that have a huge number of bad loans or have problems.
Carl, we have to be honest. This Citigroup has become a nightmare of regulation. Yeah. Or regulatory trouble. I was just thinking, Jim, about all the news we're getting from banks ahead of the earnings next week. Obviously, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan's spending 30 billion today over the next 5 years to address racial inequality.
And then this $400 million fine at City. JP Morgan goes to neutral, Jim, as they say it's going to take time and money to fix problems and avoid, in their words, becoming a Wells Fargo. I know. What is When Mike When Mike Corbat announces retirement, he actually said this. It was in the release. He said it's going to cost a lot of money.
He didn't dodge it. He made it very clear that this is going to happen, which made it so I certainly wouldn't necessarily want to want the new successor have the new job, but City is they're in a fix. And these regulatory issues, I don't know. They you have to throw a lot of money at them. It's not like you just need a better compliance head.
Uh now, Wells Charlie Scharf, there isn't Charlie Scharf laid off some more people yesterday. Uh David, you know that Wells is the stock has stayed right here. Yes. Which is rather amazing because the headlines have not been that great. No, the news has not been particularly good. It has sort of been able to maintain, let's call it the $100 billion market value level.
But of course, when I hear that, I mean, you think this was one of this was for a while the largest market cap company bank. And it lost it lost the the support of Warren Buffett. It did. He still owns some, doesn't he? Well, I shouldn't say I mean, he owns some, but it's no longer the fair-haired uh bank.
No. Sorry, it's Bank of America. Bank of America's stock has been held up here for Yeah, it has. Yeah. I mean, uh but yeah, Mr. Buffett, it's he's kind of all in with another name. Uh starts with an A. Well, it's his biggest position. Yes, by far. Likes a good balance sheet. Crazily big. Big moat. Enormous.
at a Dairy Queen. And by the way, 57% gain this year hasn't been too bad for Berkshire, either. Well, maybe that's why he's in Snowflake, another value-driven stock, 100 times sales. Right. .
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