저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
요약 보기
빅테크 반독점 조사 보고서에 대한 결론: 크레이머는 아마존·애플·구글·페이스북을 독점으로 보지 않으며 해체 시 주가가 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 트럼프 대통령의 트윗에 따른 시장 변동성 설명: 대통령이 증시를 떨어뜨리는 트윗을 올리면 곧 반대 트윗으로 상쇄하는 패턴이 반복되며, 그날 다우는 531포인트 상승, 나스닥은 1.88% 상승했다. 이때 매도는 실수라고 조언한다. 반독점 논의의 배경: 하원 법사위 보고서 서문의 브랜다이스 인용을 소개하며, 이는 사회주의가 아니라 정부의 상거래 통제를 강조하는 전통이라고 설명한다. 그러나 그는 이 시각에 동의하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 국가대표 기업론: 빅테크는 미국의 국가 챔피언으로서 타국과의 경쟁력을 지탱하므로 보호받아야 한다고 주장한다. 1989년 일본 전성기 시절 미국은 포장식품 정도만 강했으나 인터넷 혁명 이후 달라졌다고 설명한다. 페이스북: 틱톡, 트위터, 스냅, 핀터레스트 등과 경쟁하므로 독점이 아니며, 중소기업 광고 효율이 높아 규제 시 고객이 피해를 본다고 주장한다. 애플: 앱스토어 수수료는 정당하며 생태계가 수많은 일자리를 만들었다고 평가한다. 자신이 앱 수수료를 피하려다 실패한 경험을 언급한다. 아마존: 클라우드 시장에서 MS, 구글과 가격 경쟁을 하므로 독점이 아니라고 본다. AWS 분할은 나쁘지만 그래도 주식을 사라고 권한다. 알파벳: 검색, 유튜브, 클라우드, 헬스, 자율주행을 분할하면 기업가치(SOTP)가 현재 주가보다 높아져 주가가 오를 것이라 주장한다. 결론적 조언: 하원 위원회의 빅테크 악재 보도는 매수 기회이며, 향후 대선과 무관하게 40년간의 반독점 흐름이 뒤집히긴 어렵다고 본다.
다듬은 글
to entertain, but educate and teach. Call me at 180073 CNBC or tweet me at Chip Kramer. If there's one thing we've learned over the last four years is that when the president tweets something that causes the stock market to go down, sell, it's a mistake to sell. This president hates being blamed for lower stock prices.
So when he tweets something that crushes the market like putting a kaibos in the stimulus negotiation yesterday, you have to expect a second tweet storm where he either reverses himself or offsets some of the damage by and that's what happened last night with the Dow surged 531 points today. S&B gained 1.74%.
NASDAQ vaulted 1.88%. His tweet breathing new life into the stimulus talks created the biggest surge since July. House of Pleasure uh led by the airlines after Trump urged aid to them. And that's not the only certainty in Washington. We know the Democrats in the House Judiciary Committee and even some Republicans did something big today.
Hey, they want to take some they want to break up some big tech. It's some of our favorite stocks. I'm going to defend them. See, the House is concerned because uh they think they've got monopoly power. My lord, we cannot get away from Washington even for a minute. Now, let me just say flat out, I don't like monopolies.
They're bad. They make great investments, though, but they're toxic to free enterprise because they cut the heart out of the small and medium-siz businesses. Remember, our whole system is based on competition. Without it, big business has no incentive to improve. But are Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet really monopolies?
Oh, I'm not convinced. There's no doubt that these companies have gotten a lot more powerful, but that's because they're creating incredible things. We can't live without them. While they've crushed some competitors, they've also created entire industries that are filled with small businesses. And look, when it comes to destroying smaller operators, I got to tell you, nothing these companies have done comes close to the lockdowns earlier this year where some businesses were deemed essential and others were pretty much allowed to go under.
when this pandemic's over. The fact that state and local governments anointed Costco, great numbers tonight. Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's. While the feds didn't do enough to bail out small businesses, well, ought to do more to wreck these independent players than anything Facebook, Amazon, Alpha, or Apple have ever even dreamed of doing, and they don't dream of it, by the way.
They're competitive, but they're not they're not apocalyptic. We are in the middle of a small business apocalypse, though, right now. That's not the fault of big tech, but but that's who Washington focuses on there. It's so easy to pick on, right? Rich people, whatever. So, what's this really about?
You know what? It's right there in the preamble of the judiciary report if you bother to read it, which nobody does because it's really long. And it's a quote. It says, "Nearly a century ago, Supreme Court Justice Louie Brandeise wrote, "We must make our choice. We may have democracy or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of the few, but we cannot have both.
Brandise, that sounds like socialism to you. Well, that's not quite it. See, Brandise represented an older tradition of democratic politics in party. One that went out of style in the 70s and 80s when the government embraced deregulation. Not about bashing the rich so much as it's about Congress having more control over commerce.
As Brandeise and his latter- day followers see it, some things are just too important to be left up to private enterprise. I I look, I've read a lot of Brandeise. Brandise is a capitalist, but he's worried about it. He's worried about the role of government and not being uh strong enough. It's pretty radical break with the status quo over the past 40 odd years, though.
I think it it's wrong. I think it's wrong. And I'm not going to defend Facebook, Amazon, Alpha, and Alphabet on the basis of lazy fair economics. That's not me. But I've got an equally unorthodox argument for why we should allow big tech to keep operating relatively unimpeded. See, these companies, these companies are America's national champions.
Every other industrialized nation is some version of this big business that gets favorable uh treatment from the government because they make the whole country more competitive with the rest of the world. And for us, that's big tech. You know, there was a time when America had lost its economic dominance in nearly everything.
At at at Japan's height in 1989, we had packaged food. Think Hines ketchup. This was what we did best. This other than this and some pills, the United States was a pitiful, helpless giant. Then along came the internet revolution, the rise of e-commerce, the ascension of the smartphone, and finally social media personified by Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook.
These companies have created riches beyond belief both for themselves and their shareholders. I think we should let them keep doing that. I told you to buy all four stocks at much much much much lower levels. I make mistakes. I own them. But I am proud of these picks and there's nothing stopping you from continuing to do just that.
What about the charge that these companies are exercising monopoly power to wreck their competitors? Let's start with Facebook, which also owns Instagram. Now, they got a heck of a lot of market share, but can you really describe them as a social media monopoly when there's Tik Tok, Twitter, Snap, Pinterest, and they keep grabbing users?
I don't think so. What about small businesses who advertise on Facebook? Are they bl being bled dry? Listen, not that long ago, I orchestrated a panel to help small business with my guest entrepreneur and old friend Gary Vee. Gary Vaynerchuk, when he was asked the cheapest way to make your small business take off, what did he say?
He said, "You should advertise on Facebook and Instagram. They're much cheaper and more targeted than any other kind of marketing. Now, you could argue that's not fair to other advertising platforms, but I say this other platforms should get their darn acts together is that they want to stay competitive.
Now, I have seen Facebook help literally millions of businesses. In many cases, it's the reason why many of these small and medium-sized outfits are successful and they are ambassadors for Facebook. It's a huge positive. Hobbling Facebook could hobble its customers. You know what it's like? It's like the movie Misery.
Second, Apple. Sure, they take a cut of everything that happens on their app store, but the Apple ecosystems created billions of jobs in the software. Millions, millions. As CEO Tim Cook as CEO Tim Cook told the told the judiciary committee over the summer, if Apple is a gatekeeper, what we have done is open the gate wider.
We want to get every app we can on the store, not keep them off. Take it from me. I used to help run the street.com. When we made our app, we ignored Apple. Oh, this is stupid. Didn't want him to have to pay the third. We didn't want to pay the 30% for new readers. Total failure. Access to Apple's app store is worth every penny and then some.
That's why the the company's service revenue is so robust. They're making their clients fast amounts of money. Hey, do you think it would be doing well if the clients hated it? If the customers hated it? I mean, wake up and smell the darn coffee. Third Amazon. This is a tougher cell, okay? Because Amazon's steadily taking over retail.
But you know what? I think it's telling that so many retailers use Amazon Web Services rather than going with non-competitors, Google Cloud or Microsoft Azure. Some people think that you have to be on Amazon to get your small business going. But that's not even true. There's no monopoly there. We got our friends at Etsy.
That stock never quits. How about Shopify, which we liked at $80. What is that like a thousand and something? I mean, give me a break. Okay. Now, uh the these have upended the the Amazon ecosystem, the low end. On the cloud side, Amazon Web Services cut its prices relentlessly. They just keep cut prices.
Now, you could argue that they're doing predatory pricing, but who are their competitors? Microsoft and Alphabet. They can afford to lose a couple of shekeles. It's not like they're going to fold if Amazon applies too much pressure. When these three when three big companies control an entire industry, it's a good sign when they're competing on price.
And they are. It's not a slap happy igopoly. Finally, there's Alphabet H between Google Search and YouTube and maybe Google Cloud. Hey, maybe you could make the case they're too close to be a monopouist for comfort. I say fine. You know what would happen if the government breaks up alphabet? It stock would go higher.
The SOTP, also known as some of the parts, is worth so much more than the stock sell for right now. I say bring on the scalpel. Bring on the hatchet. Wall Street would absolutely pay more for Google search, Google Cloud, Google Health, YouTube, and the self-driving car businesses as separate leno. Honestly, the same argument goes for Amazon.
If the government wants to make them spin off Amazon Web Services, which would be terrible. I say bring it on though if you want to own the stock. I mean, I told you buy the stock yesterday. It's down 100. I say just go buy it. Like I'm 94. Bottom line, the time these big tech stocks get hit by some bad headlines from the House Committee is the time you have to buy them.
Those guys ought to come watch Mad Money. I mean, they wasted all that time making all those interviews. I got to save them. I got to save the government a fortune. Regardless of who uh wins the Oh, that's they print money. Garrison wins the White House next month. They're not going to roll back 40 years of antitrust.
Plus, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook could credibly argue that they are our national champions that help small businesses thrive. That's a compelling argument. Hey guys, you watch make that argument, will you? It's smarter than the ones you're making. It's the thing that can make us money and the thing that can keep us prou.
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