저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
3배 레버리지 ETF(SOXL, TQQQ, FNGU 등)의 매도 타이밍을 이동평균선(51일·201일·200주선) 중심으로 설명. 현재 상승 초기 신호가 보이나 확정적 패턴으로 보긴 어렵다고 함. 51선 돌파 여부와 저항선 반응에 따라 시나리오(강한 돌파/완만한 돌파/손절선 이탈)를 제시하고, 2차 상승 추격매수는 피하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
This is Technical Analysis 4. Today, I have prepared a video explaining when you should sell the major 3x level-up products that many of you invest in. In the case of Gym Ticket No. 6, as I have mentioned repeatedly, it is currently showing signs of entering the initial phase of an uptrend. However, it is somewhat unreasonable to view this as an absolute Tristram pattern that guarantees we will make a fortune.
Therefore, I will highlight some key points to explain the major selling timing. First, let's look at this one point. In this case, we are looking at the 51-line and 201-line, as well as the 11-line and 200-line moving averages. These are the moving averages that discuss the Golden Cross and Dead Cross that you are familiar with.
However, as I explained in a previous video, moving averages are not simply indicators sent to look at the moving average or the crossbar. A moving average line represents a level of supply and demand. You can view it as: "On average, the price has come down to this point over the past 50 days," or "People who bought this stock over the past 50 days currently have this level of experience." So, how will this play out?
Over the past 200 days, or the last 6 months, the average price of this stock (TQ) has been around this level. It is a simple average, but you can view it as having established a position at around 1 to 56. Accordingly, our response regarding buying and selling will change. If you look at it now, in the case of GQ, it is showing signs of resistance at the 51-line.
Therefore, there is a certain probability that it will hit this resistance. I mentioned that it needs to rise to 9.2 this time, but since it will likely face a setback at this resistance, there is a chance it will take a hit and fall. For those who really dislike seeing this or feel they cannot hold it, it would not be a bad idea to take profits sometime next week and confirm the direction of movement after hitting the 50-day moving average resistance.
As for the indicators themselves, such as MACD and TDI, the upward trend is still alive, so for those who are determined not to incur losses, confirm that it breaks through this 51-line. I think it would be good to proceed and enter. Alternatively, if the resistance brought in after hitting the 51 line is higher than the previous low, then you could increase your position once more.
I also believe it can sufficiently break through the 51 line and settle. When we identify this rebound as a "Dad Cap Power" or a strong rebound, the question is where we can view the bottom. The 201 line is likely to be the biggest resistance. Now, when the price moves down to 202 like this, if we expect such a large reaction, there is a probability of encountering resistance at this level.
Therefore, I think you should treat the E101 line as a mid-to-long-term resistance line and respond accordingly. For those who are unsure when to sell their TQ tickets, for now, those who feel this is "awesome," I think it would be good to capture the entry timing, confirm that it hits and breaks through the 51 line, and then set the 201 line as the second selling timing.
This is what I really want to buy today. That is what I mean. So, breaking through the 51 line in this way is actually something that could happen in the short term. However, the fact that it is happening like this in the short term implies that there is a possibility of a significant turnaround. Therefore, if we strongly break through the 51 line and go up like this, there is a high probability of an immediate rebound.
If, however, it doesn't, but instead gradually expands to break through the 51 line and later challenges the 201 line, there is a chance that after a moderate decline like this, it will move forward and transition into a pattern of rising again. So, the scenario itself seems to be broadly divided into these two categories regarding the rise.
The worst-case scenario is when it hits at 10 and flows with a widening drop; in that case, we would need to prepare at this stop-loss line. So, you can respond based on these three major scenarios. Now, in the case of S Excel, it has n't broken through the trend line yet. However, it has risen to 9 in the current trend with a strong flow.
If it breaks through the line from the downside... In the case of S-XL as well, it seems likely to move in a trend challenging the 51 line. Therefore, since there are many [trends] that collapse at resistance, please watch for XL as a latecomer to break through the 51 line and enter an uptrend. So, for those pursuing safe investments, if it breaks through this trend and hits resistance near the 51 line, you should take profits at that point and see if it actually breaks through the resistance and moves.
However, in the case of NSL, since it rose rapidly in a sloppy manner, even if it challenges here, there is a high probability that it will show a strong trend of raising its lows. Therefore, please do not hastily increase your position near the 51 line. So, do not increase your position prematurely; if you decided to increase your position around this point, you can just watch for it challenging the 51 line.
While this may look small, the reason why those who bought saw a 40% rise just by it getting close to the 51 line is that if it drops to the 12 line, it is bound to fall. So, in fact, if a second rise occurs, a decline is naturally expected. The supply zone will likely be absorbed. Since profit-taking sell orders are coming out, that is why I always advise against investing in the second wave.
So, right now, you should look at the 51 and 201 lines to formulate a long-term response plan. Even the claim that Dehumidification Excel will reach $40 seems quite far off. Therefore, even if it moves like this or a really strong rebound occurs, it could still result in a massive crash. So, just because it goes up doesn't necessarily mean it's good.
In my view, the best aspect is hoping to see it challenge its respective moving averages while increasing its contact points. Finally, regarding Fn, as I mentioned earlier, the flow is currently moving the fastest. It is showing signs of touching the 51 line. It is small, but if it breaks through the 51 line like before, resistance will appear as you can see.
However, right now, with the slope being manageable and moving like this, Sing is also moving in a pattern of traversing the 51 line. So, the amplitude might show slight resistance here and then go up, or it could break through and go up. But in my view, about 5% early next week After a drop of about 7%, I think the trend will continue with a breakout.
If a rise occurs, or if it falls after that, please correct the order and lines as I mentioned and respond accordingly. So, regarding FLNG induction—that is, for those who do not want to suffer losses—I think it is okay to face a trial at this point. Please take profits and observe how it moves and breaks through the 51 support level, and then buy again accordingly.
Then, since there is a probability that these indicators will contract in the short term and then break out again, you can set your buying timing around that time. However, since the MACD and TDI are also heading toward a breakout in the short term, I do n't think you need to rush into closing all your positions or respond in that manner.
So, the key point today—no, regarding the 51 Seol—is that I will be the first to break through. I am telling you to judge how to proceed at the first resistance zone, and observe whether it breaks through this resistance. Since the next rise could potentially reach the 201 resistance level, it could lead to a significant long-term upturn.
Therefore, please pay close attention to the trend following the breakout of the 251 line. Looking at previous patterns would be helpful. In a normal trading pattern like this, the 51 line acts as a support and acts as a purification mechanism, so we see the price hitting the 51 line and rising again.
However, in a sense, we are currently in a reverse trend. Consequently, a sharp breakout like this is bound to lead to a sharp decline, whereas a gradual breakout like this allows us to expect a continuous rise. So, please observe whether a sharp decline will occur after the 51 line is broken, whether it will hold, or whether a strong rise will follow a gradual breakout.
In any case, the key point is that the 201 to 200-week level has acted as a crucial resistance and support line. Currently, that level has been broken. If it breaks, it could become a critical resistance— that is, a ceiling. It will likely act as an incredibly strong ceiling. Therefore, if we break through the 51 line this time and...
Even if you profit from a short-term rebound, it may take a considerable amount of time to challenge the E101 line for the time being. Therefore, please watch for the breakout of the 51 line. Even if there is some upward movement following the breakout, do not enter too many positions at once; instead, try to find a timing to trade this way.
I will also monitor these indicators, and if a 2-point timing appears, I will speak to you again then. Since today is a clothing business, I hope you have a good weekend. If this video was helpful, please subscribe and like. Next week will be a week where the price meets the 51 line, or in the case of SOX, it will be a challenge.
So, please make sure to watch whether the uptrend continues. As I have always said, you should respond based on the recently raised low. The reason I speak ambiguously is that the point you must protect is the 51 line. Regardless of whether there is a rise or movement below that, we just need to watch and think about making money by securing a solid position when it breaks through this line and rises strongly.
So, Juda, please review the videos I mentioned once more and set your response direction accordingly. It would be great if you could give it to me. Okay then, I will finish filming video 1 here and wrap up. Thank you.
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