저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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피터 린치는 가장 큰 실수가 좋은 회사를 너무 일찍 파는 것이라고 설명한다. 주식은 최대 손실이 100%지만 좋은 성장주는 몇 배로 오를 수 있으므로, 매도 전 반드시 왜 샀는지(성장주인지 경기순환주인지)를 확인해야 한다고 강조한다. 매도 기준: 경기순환주나 특수상황주는 실적이 나빠 보일 때 사서 상황이 개선되고 실적이 좋아질 때 판다. 성장주는 10~20년 성장 스토리가 유효한지 보고 보유한다. 월마트 사례처럼 상장 후 10년 뒤에도 매수했다면 500배 수익이 가능했다고 설명한다. 투자 판단 원칙: 기업을 이해하고, 회사가 잘하면 시장 상황과 무관하게 주가도 결국 좋아진다는 입장이다. 장기 실적과 주가는 결국 연결된다. 과거 사례: 토이저러스와 홈디포를 너무 일찍 팔아 큰 수익을 놓쳤다고 회고한다. 버링턴 인더스트리 추천은 실패 사례로 언급했다. 확률 관점: 맞히는 비율이 50%가 안 되어도 큰 수익 한 번이 작은 손실 여러 번을 상쇄할 수 있으므로, 매수 전 최대 손실과 최대 이익을 따져야 한다고 말한다. 시장 전망: 개별 종목·자산에 대한 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다. 언급된 대상 자산도 사실상 없으며, 장기 원칙 중심의 영상이다. 영상 자체는 2022년 2월 25일 게시된 과거 인터뷰 기반 콘텐츠다.
다듬은 글
your great mistakes are selling a good company and that doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold like all the 10 baggers so some of my mistakes are saying oh my god this stock is too high and i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game peter lynch is one of the most successful and well-known investors of all time lynch is the legendary former manager of the magellan fund at the major investment brokerage fidelity he took over the fund in 1977 at age 33 and ran it for 13 years his success allowed him to retire in 1990 at age 46.
lynch is also the author of the best-selling investment books one up on wall street 1989 and beating the street 1994 his investment style has been described as adaptive to the prevailing economic environment at the time but lynch always stressed that you should be able to understand what you own in 1977 lynch took over the magellan fund a small aggressive capital appreciation fund created in 1963 that held mostly domestic investments an investor who put one thousand dollars into the fund the day lynch took over would have had twenty eight thousand dollars the day he left under his management the fund returned an average of 29 per year and outperformed the s p 500 for all but two years many investors commonly point to lynch as an example that active management can achieve superior results relative to the benchmark here is what peter lynch had to say about when to sell a stock when you were actively managing money you presumably are under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well i think my greatest mistakes are you know it's funny in a stock all you can lose is 100 i've done that but your great mistakes are selling a good company and that doubles then it triples and quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes since those ones that go up tenfold like all the 10 baggers so some of my mistakes are saying oh my god this stock is too high and i was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am i in this baseball game i sold toys r us way too early it went up 20 fold after i sold i did the same thing at home depot those are probably two greatest mistakes ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they're doing poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better and they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a growth company you have to say walmart's case 10 years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15 the united states and they could say why can't they go to 17 why can't they go 19 why you can't go to 23.
so for the next four decades they're around the country so you have to say to yourself in this stock i have a 10-year story a 20-year story i'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what i do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it we have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in america have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy a company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's an electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens to the market if the dow jones today was a thousand or 500 you had made a lot of money mcdonald's you would have made a lot of money in johnson johnson you want to make a lot of money gillette these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the market was 50 000 you would have lost money in burlington industries i recommended that in 1969 i think it's i think it's gone from 34 to 2 with no stock splits these earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world dump out a thousand i sometimes get angry male particularly during bear markets saying so-and-so recommended such-and-such and it went down well uh how often did you come up with a clicker well this this is a funny business you don't have to be right even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose 20 or 30 percent so when you buy a cycle i say yourself how much can i lose and how much can i make and you ought to be able to make a lot you see stocks are risky i mean look look at how much we lost on att look how much less than xerox these were quality companies you know you could lose a lot in this talk so i say yourself how much can i make because i want to buy a stock if i'm right i'm going to make a double or triple does your own confidence ever get shaken every day i think the market's going to go up you know i keep calling a lot my company so i keep calling the company his greatest mistake was not losing 100 on a stock but selling a good company that doubles or triples or even quadruples he often felt that a company was overvalued even though the company was a good business that fundamentally did well lynch sold toysrus way too early the stock went up 20 fold after he sold it and he did the same with home depot so when should you sell a stock lynch says first of all you need to know why you bought the stock if the stock is a cyclical company or a special situation and they're doing poorly you wait until things get better and then you sell the stock but if the company is a growth company when you sell is a different question if it is a growing business you should think about holding it for a 10 to 20 year period and follow that that's when you sell but the most important thing again that lynch mentioned is you need to know what the business is doing if the company does well the stock will eventually do well stock prices often follow earnings in the long run that's it for today's video i hope you enjoyed it and learned something new make sure to like this video and subscribe to compoundingclub because it helps out the channel a lot thanks for watching the video and i'm looking forward to speaking again soon
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