저자: Stockology Insider · 외국인
다듬은 글
Wall Street just priced in an AIdriven white collar apocalypse. And Jim Kramer says that panic not only blew up software valuations, it handed you some of the best bargains in banks, travel, and credit cards you've seen in years. Science fiction caused a huge downturn in the market. Although we've now spent the last couple days bouncing right back down, gaining 308 points today.
S&B advancing 81% and the NASDAQ, which was really hard hit the other day, up 1.26%. All right, but let's deal with this thing though. Satrin's research thesis was as pretty much as simple as it was wrong. Anthropic, the lovable businessto business AI disruptor has such a powerful hand. Satrini says that it'll pretty much be able to eliminate all white collar office jobs, effectively taking out a huge chunk of America's middle class.
It doesn't matter whe it's real estate, it could be travel, it could be bank, it could be credit. Lose those jobs and you lose all the businesses that cater to them. You lose the economy. recession, depression, massive bankruptcies. The Great Recession, too. Now, the Great Recession, too, will include the downfall of a ton of software companies that get their funding from private credit firms.
The private equity and debt mongers love the steady flow of cash coming from those cloud software business models that are going to be obliterated. And of course here you're thinking about Salesforce which reported tonight at the close delivering by the way a robust top and bottom line beat but their fullear earnings forecast came in a little light.
I thought it was conservatively made and that was enough to send that stock down on after hours trading as if it fit the Catrini model of Monday. On the other hand though they talked about spending $50 billion in buybacks which is equal to more than a quarter of the share count. They're sick and tired of the selloff and they're not going to take it anymore.
I don't blame them. I saw a company called Workday report a really horrible number opened down 12 and ended up finishing almost three bucks and now Salesforce trades at 15 times earnings. Weird dichconomy and that's why I'm very glad you hear from Salesforce CEO Mark Ben off later in the show. I bet he comes out fighting today.
The Catrini worries were viewed as being way overblown. I say you got to take him with a box of Horton salt. But you know what? I like to hear contrary views to my own. By the way, contra views that include the idea that maybe Nvidia won't be any good. We're going to talk about that in a second, but I wouldn't describe it as being bad.
As a bare seat, Monday's meltdown gave us a glimpse of the future. But two days later, we've been brought back to reality after what's looking like one of the biggest overreach overreaches of all time, which is right. The enterprise software domino theory or the idea that the global intelligence crisis is all smoke and mirrors.
Wait a second. Will an AI tsunami really wipe out the entire white collar class? Oh, come on. That's just not right. This is a case where Wall Street took a tiny kernel of truth and extrapolated into a financial tragedy of ridiculous proportions that caused many people to completely freak out. And you know, sell panic is not a strategy.
Now, it's a case where Nvidia seems to be the only winner. And even that goes away in a depression. I'm going to tell you one thing, it sure isn't going away tonight, not after that blowout quarter. Of course, I am concerned about most enterprise software companies. They are in the crosshairs of the bears because they may not be able to reinvent themselves fast enough, but not because they're threatened with extinction.
I don't see this anthropic great firm wiping them out. I just think they maybe won't be able to make as much money as they used to, which is why they're now getting lower and lower priced earnings multiples. Salesforce 15 times earnings. I do believe that some of the private equity and private credit firms that we're so worried about will have to take real hits.
Maybe some of these fun uh funds can bring in money from individual investors because these companies are campaigning for the uninformed to come in to get those high yields. I don't like that. I agree with my old friend Lloyd Blankfine, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, author of Streetwise, comes out today, a great new book where he questions the goal of these private equity firms that are so desperate to get liquidity.
They want to hit up regular people. They want to hit up you for cash in order to make their more sophisticated investors whole. Don't be fooled. But in the end, I think most of the private equity and private credit firms will simply make less money. That's my theme. No apocalypse, just less money. They're going to have to be more realistic.
They're going to have to do a little bit worse and accept that. Maybe some of the funds may disappear, but the overall industry, I do not think, is truly about to blow up. At the same time, I don't believe in the white collar job apocalypse. Maybe AI can eventually replace most of the positions, but it's going and that's very bearish, but it's going to take many, many years for that to happen.
Many new jobs will be created in the process. So, tons of stocks that sold off on Monday. Retailers, credit cards, banks, travel, they should all come back. And which ones in particular? You know, I like names. I like to mention companies. I like TJX, which had a terrific quarter. Homegoods was amazing.
Marshalls, TJ Maxx, but it stock got hit anyway because it had been straight up. Management's always cautious in the conference call. I like the credit card companies. American Express got killed. That's a great company. Capital One so good. I like booking holdings. I like Marriott for travel. I think the travel bull market lives.
They won't be brought down by anthropic. My favorite, the banks, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs. The former because it's doing the best job of integrating AI. Just hired a whiz from Amazon Web Services. The latter because it's the closest we have to a pure play of investment banking at a time. Investment bank is on fire.
These are entrenched companies. They're not going to blow up. Many of these will use AI to cut costs uh perhaps better than a Salesforce or Service Now or Workday could. Maybe not though. Maybe these software companies can do it cheaper to stay competitive and just make less money in the process. You see my theme?
Make less money. Price journeys multiple goes down but no apocalypse, no extinction. Okay? There will be some earnings degradation. But I accept that and you have to too. Look, the sulfur companies are survivors. They can merge. They can adapt. They can do whatever is really necessary to get it so they stay in business.
They're priced for perfection though and they do seem to have let's say kind of a rugby scrum feel about them and we don't pay up for scrum. 15 times earnings for Salesforce. Something's wrong there. I'm talking real earnings here when you include the impact of stockbased compensation. No. So am I worried?
Well, look, you have to be worried. But I am not worried about the impact on the broader economy. I think AI helps the broader economy and for that we have to look no further than the most important company in the universe which is Nvidia which just reported a healthy top and bottom line beat 75% growth in their data center business also gave better than expected guidance for the current quarter enough to send the stock higher although remember there'll be people who will say it's the end they always say it's the end you know me I say you own Nvidia don't trade it even better it doesn't seem like they're feeling much of a pinch from the memory shortage because their margin guidance was strong.
We know Nvidia's been cleaning up with these hyperscalers and once again demand is off the charts. So for all the hand ringing about how AI will be an engine of wealth destruction, it's hard to deny that it's also an incredible vehicle of wealth creation. And that's where I come down. Of course, regardless of where Nvidia trades tomorrow, what matters is that Nvidia has created the entire AI boom with its ultra fast chips that can reason and accomplish time-conuming tasks for a fraction of what you'd pay a human, which means a plentiful amount of new businesses are coming.
Nvidia is the bedrock of the fourth industrial revolution that will create more jobs than it destroys. I I can't promise you that, but I'm sure sure optimistic that that's going to occur, and that's certainly at odds with Monday's doomsday paper and doomsday stock market. I know those who just started you may think maybe I'm just a polyiana an older Polyiana but I'm old enough to remember what happened when the PC wiped out most of the big iron and tech except for IBM the cheap PC was a senate seemed like nothing would take its place and then this was born the iPhone this was a total revolution in itself it was it was creating an app store that only employs millions upon millions of people from the apps themselves to hardware to software to phones to PCs to all of the let's say the accuchments and I say this to all you naysayers out there did the iPhone destroy more jobs than it created did the PC I don't think so don't think that this is either don't get pessimistic don't get sucked in here's the bottom line to all you naysayers tonight Nvidia reporter a picture perfect quarter it shows me that AI is alive and well and actually making a ton of money for more than just Nvidia oh we're going to have a speed bumps.
We're going to be fooled periodically, but let me tell you something. My optimism, which is including this moment, it has put me on the right side of 49,000 Dow points since I first walked down this street. And I got to tell you,
Comments 0