저자: BillGross · 외국인
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결론: 빌 그로스는 무역전쟁 자체보다 연준의 금리 인상 한계와 기업부채·장단기 금리 평탄화를 근거로 한 '둔화 국면'을 대비하라고 말한다. 무역 이슈와 시장 반응: 미국의 중국 수입품 500억 달러 관세 발표에 대해 성장에는 부정적이지만 인플레이션에는 약간 긍정적이어서 방향이 불분명하다고 봤다. 주식 하락·채권 강세는 무역보다 잠재적 성장 둔화에 대한 반응으로 해석했다. 연준과 파월: 파월 의장은 기존 모형에 얽매이지 않는 실용적 스타일로 평가했다. 금리는 2018년 3월 25bp 인상 후 추가로 25~50bp 정도만 더 오를 가능성이 있고, 점도표가 시사하는 3~4번 추가 인상은 과도하다고 봤다. 중립금리와 장기금리: 실질 중립금리는 현재 사실상 0에 가깝고 역사적으로 2% 수준으로 돌아갈 근거가 있다는 견해다. 인플레이션이 2% 안팎이면 연준금리도 그 수준에서 멈출 수 있고, 그 경우 10년물 국채금리 약 3%는 장기간 유지될 수 있다고 봤다. 레버리지와 리스크: 정부와 가계 부채보다 좀비기업과 고수익채(하이일드) 부문의 레버리지가 가장 큰 취약점이다. 금리가 더 오르면 하이일드 손실이 나올 수 있다. 다만 기업부채가 다음 경기침체를 직접 촉발하지는 않을 것으로 봤다. 장단기 금리 평탄화: 국채 2년-10년 스프레드 약 55bp, 스왑커브 스프레드 약 26bp로 평탄화가 진행 중이며, 역사적으로 미국 경제 둔화 신호다. 침체라기보다는 성장 둔화에 가깝다는 입장이다. 포지션 전략: 투자자는 성장 둔화에 대비해 포지션을 조정해야 한다. 근거로 애틀랜타 연은 1분기 GDP 추정치 약 2%(기존 3~3.5% 대비 낮음), 소비자 저축률 2%(정상 6% 대비 낮음), 임금 상승 없이는 소비 여력이 제한된다는 점, 금리 약 150bp 인상 이후의 누적 효과를 들었다. 주식시장이 이를 반영하기 시작했다는 의견이다. 출연자 전망: 금리 상단은 약 2~2.25%에서 멈출 가능성이 크고, 그때 10년 국채 3% 수준은 용인 가능하다. 채권시장은 장기 약세장(hibernating bear market)에 들어가 있을 가능성이 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
first if you just look at what's happening today the White House announced fifty billion dollars or I should say tariffs on fifty billion dollars of Chinese imports yesterday we know that j-pal the Fed chief declined to comment on what trade policy or a possible trade war would mean for inflation for markets clearly investors are trying to absorb all of this information and we see stocks are falling bonds are rallying give us your take well I think a trade war in to the extent that the Chinese measures reflect that you know it's certainly not good freaking I'm a growth and perhaps not good for inflation in terms of slightly higher inflation so it's hard to know you know the bond market may be reacting to this potentially slower growth but not the potentially higher inflation I think basically it's a push and I I really don't think the situation today in terms of Chinese trade is the reason behind the markets what do you think the reason is well I think investors heard chairman pal yesterday they saw him as pragmatic versus academic prior Chair Yellen and chair Bernanke and they heard him say basically that it was a not a date a day but a meeting to meet a type of decision he said the one important thing that you can glean from today's statement is that we raised Fed Funds 25 basis points and yes the you know the green dots are up around three percent in terms of Fed governors and fed presidents but I think the market knows better and my outlook refers to the possibility and indeed the probability that Fed Funds have another twenty five or fifty basis points to go and certainly not another three or four or five hikes uh speaking of j-pal your thoughts on his debut certainly holding the press conference his first FOMC chair meeting how would you greet his performance ABC well but you know the performance to me is not important but you asked and so I you know I would say it was very good you know he's like I say pragmatic and not necessarily pedantic it doesn't follow models it appears as much as a yelling or bernanke did and to me that's very important because you know prior models by you know the Fed are a twenty thirty and forty year type of look at an economy that doesn't exist anymore and to the extent that Powell views that as you know the historic as opposed to currently relevant I think that's that's all to the good will flesh out what you were saying there about the apparent exaggeration of what the Fed can achieve here in a two percent inflation world you're saying actually that the interest rates can't get much above two percent without creating all sorts of problems just explain to us what you think the impact would be whether its interest rates whether it's for other central banks or for the US dollar if indeed they do go above two percent well I think it depends of course on other central banks China just raised their short-term rate yesterday but yeah it gets down to a question in my view and then perhaps in pals view as well of what the the neutral Fed Funds rate is I think they're trying to find that out the Fed calls it our star you know I would think and we're all just thinking because the historical evidence would suggest that the new neutral a real Fed Funds rate should go back to two percent as opposed to zero where it is now but I think it's really zero and so if we have inflation at one of three quarters or two percent going forward then I think Fed Funds should be there too but it it's fair to say that some on the Fed think otherwise and we're just going to have to see meeting to meeting but I I like that from pal he's going to look and if if unemployment goes lower but doesn't cause a wage increase then you know look for ten-year Treasuries around three percent for a long long time but do you agree that actually the Fed can't say anything differently from what they are saying at this point I mean even if you're right in what you're saying and actually further out they actually don't have the kind of scope that they're talking about they couldn't indicate that to them Kitson to investors at this stage could they no I don't think so and yes you know the feather stylists observing current circumstances but you know even more so now when when pal suggests it's almost a meeting to meeting type of decision and you know it's based primarily on wage growth as opposed to economic strength so yeah you know it investors and then volatility will have to be dependent upon the week to week type a number I suppose but I think ultimately if Fed Funds rest around two or two and a quarter percent and again that's not what the Fed is suggesting but if it stops there then you know a three percent 10-year treasuries is okay and it's probably reflective of what I called a few months ago a hibernating bear market mm yeah you you call that the current beast for the bond market as well I'm speaking of beasts that that's a common word here in your monthly newsletter your monthly outlook you've identified leveraged as a beast in the current environment that will come later leveraged on whose part on the government's part or on government's part on households parts on corporates part can you explain that a little bit more now I think a little bit in terms of leverage within the US and of course the there were the real problem in the real beast is in China and elsewhere but in the US in terms of your specific question you know there's no problem to my way of thinking with leverage and the government side they can always print money they can always raise money that the problem is really not at the moment in terms of household debt because household debt was reduced significantly since the Great Recession it's probably in corporations and in Zombie corporations that have been kept alive by very low rates by floating rate notes etc and that now may have to roll them over in the ensuing months and years and so we may see some high yield damage if rates continue to go higher because they're the most highly levered yeah and I ask because household debt caused the last recession was a catalyst there how worried should we be about corporate debt causing the next recession oh I don't I don't think it's going to cause the next recession I think I would add to what I just said in terms of short-term rates that you know the yield curve is flattening you talked about a lot of others talk about a lot mainly in terms of the treasury side a 55 basis point difference between twos and tenure I would suggest that investors and recessionary liquors should should look at the swap curve that's a little esoteric but the swap curve is flattened even more than the treasury curve and it's now around 26 basis points which historically has led to a slowdown certainly in the US economy if not a recession slowdown not recession okay bill a lot of this is just a case of whether it's the central bank or for us watching the data and just seeing how the economy plays out and it's the same thing was where we started as well talking about the prospects of greater trade tensions going forward how should investors look at the markets overall today and how should they be positioned well I think they should begin to position for a slower growth what are some of those signs you know the Atlanta Fed which puts out a weekly forecast for first quarter GDP suggests around two percent as opposed to three to three and a half percent we have a we have a savings rate consumer savings rate of two percent versus a normal six percent and so there's not much move to come from consumers going forward if they don't get wage gains and you know we've we've had a central bank raising interest rates now for you know sometime perhaps 150 basis points in the curve flattening and so these are all potential symptoms of not a recession but certainly slower growth and maybe equities are starting to realize that
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