저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 AI 등 기술 발전이 기업 이익률을 높이지 않을 수 있다고 본다. 자본주의의 경쟁 구조로 개선 효과가 소비자에게 돌아가며, 전체 이익이 GDP에서 차지하는 비중은 크게 변하지 않을 것으로 본다. 섬유사업 경험상 신기술 도입도 결국 수익을 남기지 못했다고 회고한다. 또한 버크셔 해서웨이의 지배구조와 문화 유지에 대해 자녀·가족이 문화 수호자 역할을 할 것이라며 신뢰를 표명했다. 이 발언은 장기적 구조에 대한 견해이며 특정 자산의 단기 가격 예측은 포함되지 않는다.
다듬은 글
technology um you know that that's just as likely to reduce profits as to as to increase profits. I mean the the as the economic machine of the United States works better and better over time. Um the main beneficiaries are going to be consumers. Uh, if you took whoever you think is the best business manager in the United States and you put a clone of that person in charge of each one of the Fortune 500, the profits of the Fortune 500 would not necessarily go up because there's there's this competitive nature to capitalism where the improvement you get one day, your competitor gets the next day.
And it it very much tends to to work to the benefit of consumers but not to increase overall profitability. Uh we see that in the industries we're in every we were in the textile business for a long time and and various new products or various new uh uh machinery would come along and it would promise to deliver a 40% internal rate of return and get rid of 43 employees or something like that.
And you know we just did one after another of those and when we got all through we didn't make any money because the other guy was doing the same thing. And I likened it to, you know, to everybody that prayed, you know, a huge crowd watching it and somebody stands up on tiptoes and, you know,body on the crowd is up on tiptoes and they're not seeing any better and their legs hurt.
Well, that was the textile business. Uh, and there's an awful lot of self-neutralizing things uh in in in in capitalism. So I I don't really expect any of the factors you named or any other factors that I can think of that will move profits up as a percentage of of GDP and and indeed I think that if you're looking at GDP as being the national pie and profits being what investors get out of it and and the rest belonging to people who are out there working for a living every day.
I don't think I don't think the the relative the prop the proportions are are are inappropriate. Charlie, I've got nothing to add to that. I had got a golden retriever puppy a few months ago and uh he's been proudly named Munger. Is he house Charlie? You'd be very proud. He's just like you. I bring him to Central Park and hundreds of women flock over to pet him.
He's well named. He's well named. I don't think the main fraud in workman's comp is by the carriers against the small businessmen. It's by the claimants, the attorneys, and the doctors uh against the whole system. That that really would be our experience. I as a sideline, I notic you from Morgan, North Carolina.
We had a we have a a business there, Carolina shoe. We made work boots. And I gave a talk at University of North Carolina some time ago. In fact, I think they have a tape of it still. And afterwards, I'd mentioned in the talk that we had a we had this business um in Morgan and uh one of the students came up to me afterwards and there were there were a number of them and I shook his hand and making idle conversation I said, "Where are you from?" And he said, "I'm from Morgan." Uh and I said, "Oh." I said, "Do you know Carolina Shu?" And he thought a second.
He said, "I don't know her, but I think I know her family." That never forgotten that fellow. Mr. Buffett, since I'm older than you, and maybe even as old or older than Charlie, I feel like I can ask this question, and I'll ask it as delicately as possible. When the time comes that you, I, and Charlie have gone to that big stock market in the sky, I I understand that you planned, or at least I have read, that you plan to give the bulk of your Berkshire Hathaway stock to your charitable foundation along with your 30% of the votes of the company.
If this is correct, and if it's not correct, this question is moot. But if so, what assurance do the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have that the company will continue to be run as honestly and straightforward as it is now, such as only 15.8 8 employees or so at headquarters. And no huge salaries or uh or other uh ridiculous uh giveaways to dilute and weaken the equity of the shareholders at that time.
Well, for a short while that'll only be 14.8 actually. But it it's a good question and a very good question. Since you're older than I apparently, I hope we don't go at the same time. The uh it there's one slight twist to the uh the estate plans we have. If I die first, all of my Birkshire goes to my wife.
And if we died simultaneously, it would all go to the foundation. But all of the stock will end up in the foundation. And in fact, if I died first, she might put my stock in the foundation before her death, but that would be up to her. But it will end up in the foundation. All of the stock uh as you mentioned, it has 30 odd% of the votes.
Although under the tax law, once it's in the foundation, uh within five convert to be some of it or it would have to get down to 20% of the vote that's required under foundation law. uh in terms of how it would be run in the future, I think it has a far better chance than any company, any major company I know in the country uh of maintaining the culture because it it has it will have people running it who have grown up in the culture.
Uh earlier it was the criticism was made about my my wife and and and my son being on the board, but they are guardians of the culture. They're not there to profit themselves. They're there to profit as the other shareholders profit, but also to keep the company in the same way as previously. One great example of that, of course, has been at Walmart were when Sam Walton died.
Uh not too dissimilar amount of stock was left among the family. And essentially the Walton family has in my opinion done a magnificent job not only of selecting successors to run the place but having successors who if anything reinforce the culture of Walmart and it's been an enormously successful arrangement.
The the Waltons are there in case anything goes wrong to make a change if needed but they're not there to run the business. And that's exactly the pattern that we hope to have at Bergkshire. And I I think we we have it. I think I you know I can't give you a 100% guarantee, but I would far rather bet on the integrity of uh the family that succeeds me plus the managers that succeed me at Bergkshire uh remaining true um than I would any other company in and for a long long time any other company I can think of.
Charlie. Well, I would have a reason to fret about this subject just as you would. And I of course have known the members of the Buffet family that would be here after Warren is gone for decades. Don't worry about it. You should be so lucky. It's a question we don't wish to have an instant answer for. However,
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