저자: TickerSymbolYOU · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 실적(매출 7억 2,600만 달러, 전년比 30%↑, 미국 상업 고객 77%↑, 순달러유지율 118%)을 근거로 AI 시대 수혜를 강조. 룰오브40 점수 68로 동종 소프트웨어 대비 우수하다고 평가. DCF 기준 적정가치 수준이라 고평가는 아니나 저평가도 아니라고 봄. 장기적으로 모바일 인터넷처럼 AI도 단계적으로 성장하며 팔란티어가 기업용 AI 소프트웨어의 핵심 수혜주라고 주장. 다만 변동성이 클 것이라고 경고하며 적립식 매수를 병행. 관심 종목 순위에서 팔란티어를 9위에서 아마존 바로 위로 상향.
다듬은 글
paler just had their most important earnings call ever whether you're a longtime paler shareholder or you're wondering if it's too late to buy the stock you should know that this isn't just about revenues or profit margins paler latest earnings show us their place in the entire AI Revolution so in this video I'll break down paler latest earnings call one key Insight that changed the way I value the company and what that means for the future of the stock your time is valuable so let's get right into it first things first first I'm not here to hold you hostage here's what I'll be covering in this video paler insane earnings results and the most important metrics that I'm watching to track their growth paler position in the crowded and competitive AI market and of course whether or not it's too late to buy paler stock and where it goe pretty well year to dat there's a ton to talk about but we have to start with this quote from paler CEO Alex karp that quote the winners in AI will be powered by paler and the losers will read analyst notes in his shareholder letter carp saying quote this is the software Sentry and we intend to take the entire market so the winners in AI will be powered by paler and the losers will read analyst notes that pretty much sums up my opinion on AI and Wall Street analysts so let's skip the analysts all together and dive right into pounder's latest earnings call paler reported record revenues of $726 million for the quar which is up by 7% quarter over quarter and 30% year over-ear that's very solid overall growth but things get really interesting when we break them down by Revenue segment paler has four major Revenue segments us commercial US Government non-us commercial and non- US Government I personally care about paler commercial growth in the US since that's the largest and most lucrative market for their platforms over the long term but I'll cover each of them since they all contribute to paler massive growth today paler us commercial Revenue came in at $179 million for the quarter which is up by a solid 133% quarter over quarter and a massive 54% year-over-year thanks to two key numbers that all paler shareholders should care about first their us commercial customer count grew to 321 customers which is up by 9% quarter over quarter and a whopping 77% year-over-year and second their net dollar retention rate was 118% for the quarter which is the highest it's been since 2022 the reason those two metrics are so important for tracking paler overall growth is how they work together 77% more customers means way more than just Revenue it also means new use cases for paler software platforms which means they can build new outof the-box solutions to convert even more customers down the road their commercial platform paler Foundry comes with tons of ready too tools for a wide variety of verticals ranging from automotive and energy to healthcare and life sciences and Logistics and Supply Chain management building out new AI solutions for those markets as well as new markets altogether is one way that paler can accelerate their growth on the flip side net dollar retention rate measures how much more money existing customers are spending year-over-year so a 118% net dollar retention rate means that Pal's customers are spending 18% more money with them this year over last year on average so 77% more customers and 18% more Revenue per existing customer is why paler Revenue growth has been accelerating for the last four quarters growing by 20% 21% 27% and now 30% year over-year and it's not just commercial customers paler US government revenue grew by 40% and their overall government revenue grew by 33% that huge growth shows us that they don't need to sacrifice one side of their business to grow the other which was worrying a lot of investors and analysts last year when paler reported just 10% government revenue growth speaking of which last year I found out that dozens of online data Brokers were selling my personal data and if you're getting lots of spam phone calls texts and emails lately they might be selling yours too that's why I joined delete me the sponsor of this video delete me is a hands-free subscription service that will remove your personal information from hundreds of online data brokers you just sign up enter your information and let their experts get to work they've reviewed over 38,000 listings for me so far and after 7 days you'll get a detailed privacy report that shows you everything they've done I recently got my sixth report and delet me found hundreds of pieces of my personal information across 47 separate data Brokers not just my name and address but my mom's and my fiance too but here's the best part they keep scanning these websites even after they remove remov D my information and I get my own privacy adviser if I want to talk to a real person and make a custom removal request so if you care about your data and your family's privacy you can get 20% off any consumer plan with my code symbol 20 by going to join delete me.com sls20 or use my link in the description and a big thank you to delete me for supporting the channel and keeping my family's data safe all right paler didn't just Crush analyst expectations in terms of commercial and government revenue Vue growth they also crushed it in terms of operating margins reporting Gap and adjusted operating margins of 16 and 38% respectively that means their Gap operating margins have more than doubled year-over-year and their rule of 40 score is at an all-time high as a result the rule of 40 is another important metric to track and it's a great way to compare companies so let me break it down for you the rule 40 exists because the price to earnings ratio is not a one-size fits-all metric and many self-proclaimed value investors miss a lot of great investments just because their PE ratios are too high for example let's look at Tesla stock Over The Last 5 Years the blue line is Tesla's historic price to earnings ratio back in June of 2020 Tesla's price to earnings ratio spiked to over 800 but anyone who bought it then and held it until today literally tripled their money and here's nvidia's 5-year price chart with their PE ratio in blue investors bought tons of Nvidia stock in 2023 after they began reporting serious data center Revenue growth as a result their price to earnings ratio spiked from 50 to around 250 in a matter of months and I got a lot of heat from value investors for buying the stock at all-time highs and crazy PE ratios but look what happened next even though the stock price tripled the PE Ratio collapsed since nvidia's earnings grew much faster than their market cap I'm not saying that the PE Ratio is a bad metric or that I never trust it but I really believe that most investors use it as a crutch and as a way to justify not taking the time to understand the science behind the stocks which is just my way of saying how the technology company behind the ticker symbol actually makes its money all right so the rule of 40 exists because the PE ratio can be very misleading for companies with high earnings growth companies like Tesla Nvidia and pound here the rule of 4 says that even if a company has low earnings today it could still be a good investment if its Revenue growth and its profit margins add up to 40 or more paler rule of 40 score is 68 since their revenue grew by 30% and their adjusted operating margins are 38% a 68 might be an all-time high for pound here but the whole point of the rule of 40 is comparing against other companies so let's do that next here's a website that measures how different publicly traded software companies score on the rule of 40 the xais is revenue growth and the Y AIS is margins so a company's position on this plot represents their score companies above the diagonal line have a score of 40 or better and the size of each bubble is their revenue multiple which we can kind of think of as a PE ratio but for companies that may not have positive earnings yet anyway Splunk which got acquired by Cisco for $28 billion earlier this year has a score of 53 Adobe with its massive portfolio of media editing and e-commerce tools has a score of 51 and Salesforce has a score of 38 so paler score of 68 is incredible compared to other publicly traded software companies and if we use paler Gap operating margins of 16% paler would still have a score of 44 which means they would still be near the top of this list it's also worth mentioning that as a company's score goes up each point is harder to achieve than the last since a company would have to sustain very high growth rates or very High operating margins as their Market matures and competition increases over time that's why most companies either have high Revenue growth or high margins but not both so paler score of 68 coming from 30% Revenue growth and 38% operating margins means they're absolutely crushing it all right paler Us customer count is growing fast us commercial customers grew by 77% and overall commercial customers grew by 51% Pal's overall customer count includes government customers still grew by a whopping 39% in one year likewise their us commercial Revenue grew by 54% while their US government revenue grew by 40% showing that they don't need to sacrifice Gotham customers to grow Foundry or vice versa net dollar retention is up operating margins are up and the rule of 40 score is at an all-time high this was easily one of paler best earnings calls ever but the stock price spiked by 30% which means there 's really only one question left to ask is it too late to buy paler stock or are there best days still to come if we run a discounted cash flow model like on simply Wall Street we see that paler stock is trading exactly at fair value so it's not overvalued but it's certainly not a steal at these prices but DCF models make a lot of assumptions so let me offer a different kind of long-term perspective technology tends to advance in cycles and each cycle Builds on the one that came before it in the the 1970s we had around 1 million mainframe computers but they were so big and expensive that only large institutions government agencies and Enterprises really had them but by the early 2000s there were a billion desktops in people's homes and offices around the world and by the end of the 2010s everyone had a computer in their pocket and if you include tablets laptops desktops and data center machines there are more computers on Earth today than there are people but that didn't happen overnight in fact the mobile internet evolved in three distinct phases and Morgan Stanley research expects the AI era to follow the same Trend which is where paler comes in the rise of the mobile internet happened over a very long time this chart starts in 2010 but remember the first iPhone came out in 2007 and Apple's App Store launched in 2008 it took 3 years for the iPhone to reach Mass market adoption disrupt blackberry and really usure in the era of mobile Computing the same thing is happening today we've all heard of AI by now but it could be a few years before we're all using it in our day-to-day lives and on the other side this chart ends in 2016 but 5G mobile service didn't even start rolling out until 2018 and there were tons of new mobile first apps and services that launched during the pandemic and while companies that build high margin software and service platforms perform the best in the long run they're the last part of the value chain to rise that's because they need an already established infrastructure to run on like data centers and our smartphones and before that infrastructure can be built semiconductor companies need to build the chips to power it so the rise of the mobile internet actually took anywhere from 8 to 15 years depending on what we consider the start and the end now imagine that we had this same chart but for the AI era instead of the mobile era chat GPT was released 2 years ago so we'd still be near the start of this chart that's why many of my top stocks to get rich without getting lucky are chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD as well as Cloud infrastructure companies like Microsoft Amazon and Google they'd represent the first two phases of our AI chart the special thing about paler is that they're basically the only publicly traded Pure Play AI software company imagine going back in time and investing in Google and Amazon right at the start of the mobile Revolution that's what it means to be invested in paler today at the start of the AI era but before anyone rushes to buy paler stock at all-time highs let me point out a few things about this chart first just because software tends to have the highest margins and the biggest returns over time doesn't mean we should go all in on that group only semiconductors also performed very well over the entire time period which is one reason I cover Nvidia more than any other company and second check out just how volatile all three of these groups are semiconductors infrastructure and software all have sharp Peaks and big draw downs and the returns from software stocks took an especially long time to catch up to the other two groups so if this case study on the mobile era can tell us anything about the current AI era it's that we should expect paler to have a lot of ups and downs on its way to dominating the Enterprise AI software landscape and now that we have all that context let me show you where paler goe put out let me walk you through this list I still think that Microsoft is the king when it comes to implementing AI into enterprise software they also have a huge and diverse technology portfolio that includes their Maya data center accelerators and Cobalt CPUs their Azure Cloud infrastructure and their deep partnership with open AI so they're positioned to benefit from all three phases of this AI era that we just talked about Nvidia is a very close second because they're the current king of AI hardware and I don't see that changing anytime soon they're so far ahead and moving so much faster than every other chip maker not to mention all the software that they've built on top of their Hardware ecosystem Nvidia reports earnings in a couple of weeks and if they overd deliver like they have been they're the only company that might knock Microsoft out of my number one spot on the other hand when I made this list in December of 2023 paler started in the number nine spot because I had concerns about their overall go toar market strategy I was obviously wrong but good investors put their egos aside and learn from their mistakes my concerns are long gone and it's clear that paler is firing on all cylinders across a massive total addressable Market from heavy Industries and National Security to finance and life sciences and Beyond so my plan is to keep dollar cost averaging in which means I'm buying fewer shares as the price gets higher the next time there's a big dip and there will be a next big dip I'll load up on more shares since we know that paler fair value is currently around $50 per share at least according to Simply wall Street's DCF model with all that said I'm moving paler stock up one more spot on my list just above Amazon that's a huge move and probably the last one I'll make considering how confident I am in Amazon web service amazon.com the prime ecosystem and how far up this list paler has already moved over the last 10 months but nd if you want to see what else I'm investing in check out this video
Comments 0