Timeless Stock Picking Advice from Peter Lynch

요약 보기

개별주 투자는 기업의 재무제표를 확인하고 '왜 주가가 올라야 하는지' 근거를 따져야 한다고 강조. 아는 것에 투자하라는 원칙과 함께 턴어라운드·성장 기업 발굴의 중요성을 설명. 금융위기 과거 사례를 들며 은행 시스템은 스트레스 테스트 등으로 개선됐고 일부 기업 도산은 자연스럽다고 언급. 1980년대 초 인플레이션·실업 위기와 비교하며 항상 걱정거리는 있다고 말함. 경기침체 전망은 이미 널리 예측되어 있어 실제 발생 여부는 알 수 없다고 밝힘.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Peter, of course, is the vice chairman of Fidelity Management, research and advisory board member of Fidelity Funds. From 1977 to 1990, he managed the Mellan Fund, growing it from, you ready for this, $20 million to $14 billion in 1990 at the time of his retirement. Buy what you know is what Peter taught us.

02. And it's so nice to see you this morning, Peter. Good to be here. So, let's talk about buy what you know. I'm so curious these days how you're thinking about the economy. Well, I think people that invest in individual stocks. It's it's sad. They're careful when they buy a refrigerator or an airplane flight.

03. They're careful with the money and they hear about the stock on the bus and they put five or $10,000 on it. They have no idea what they do. So, you really got to be careful. Look at the company. Look at the balance sheet. What is the reason the stock should be higher? The sucker's going up. It's not a good reason.

04. I is your sense though that the style of investing uh that you pioneered is still doable and winnable today? Well, I think looking for something different, looking for something that's a good story. I mean, who would have guessed TJX, a local company, would have gone up 50fold or Stop and Shop would go up 10fold or or Analog Devices or Nvidia.

05. I couldn't pronounce Nvidia. So you have to find a company that's either a turnaround or a company that's going to grow like Panera or you know Family Dollar stores. I'm not saying that buys now but that's what's made our you know Sears has rolled over so you know so Kmart's rolled over IBM slow down but we've had new companies come along.

06. I mean that's the nature you have to be looking for new companies and look at the balance sheet. If you can add five and five and get reasonably close to 10, you should be able to look at the balance sheet, say, "Here's two depressed companies. They've gone from 50 to three. One company's got three in cash and no debt.

07. One's got three men in debt, no cash. Which one are you going to buy?" I mean, that not too hard to do. Peter, I I watch you closely because I was in the business back then and I don't do you remember how many SNLs went from mutuals to stock trade that you made just buou bucks on back then? And I mean, I don't know if you I don't know if you missed any of those and they were all big winners.

08. They They're all big winners. They were all big winners back then. I just What do you think of the financial sector right now and what happened we saw with First Republic and uh I I just like to get your insight there since you you were so good at that sector? Yeah, we have a terrible financial crisis in 991.

09. I think every almost every major bank in Texas went under. Bank of New England, one of the oldest banks in the country went under. It's like, you know, you know, in 0809 the banks were doing these no dock loans and second mortgages and home improvement loans and people were buying boats with it. Now the banks being much more careful.

10. So we've gone through other crisis. Some banks will go under. You know 400 went under after 09. Now there stress tests. I think the banking system has improved. There'll be some companies going under. That's the that's the nature of it. You know, it's nothing like imagine 198081 we had double digit inflation, double digit unemployment and people worried the Japanese were going to take over the world.

11. I mean, we were hopeless. I mean, you know, there's always something to worry about. I'd really in my over 50 years of doing this, I I think I'd be worried if there was, you know, somebody didn't bring up something to worry about. That's what you made. I I I was joking because I'm a Reagan guy, you know, and I was there I started at at Mel in 1981.

12. I remember I remember what happened. I remember my feelings in 1981 and I remembered my feelings how I felt by 1985 and you had a tailwind. I had a tailwind because of what we did. We're not going to do that again. We're not going to cut taxes. We're not going to uh stimulate the private sector. We're we're kind of headed the other way.

13. Did Did you have a tailwind? Will we ever have a tailwind again with this generation? Well, we've had 13 recessions since World War II, and we've had 13 recoveries. Maybe we're going to have one. If this is a recession, it's probably the most predicted one ever. You know, I never know when we're going to go.

14. I I'd love to know the future. I I bet I'd give it would help. I'd be a better investor. I'd pay five extra dollars for next year's Wall Street Journal. It would really help. I cannot predict the future, but this one, this recession is so expected, so predicted. Maybe it's coming. I don't know.