저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 2023년 미드터밍 미라클(1~2분기 강세)은 끝났지만 하반기도 여전히 상승장으로 보며, 향후 1년 S&P500 기대수익은 약 11%. 과거 데이터 분석: 1925년 이후 대통령 임기 3년차 하반기는 92%가 양(+)이었던 상반기보다 덜 강하고 평균 수익도 낮음. 하반기 양(+) 비율은 약 80%, 평균 약 7.5%. 하반기가 두 자릿수 마이너스였던 경우는 1931년과 1987년 두 번뿐이며, 하반기 음(-)은 6번이고 최악은 -3.7%. 정책 사이클: 임기 초 2년은 대형 입법이 몰려 불확실성이 커서 시장에 부정적이지만, 중간선거 이후 교착상태로 정책 잡음이 줄고 안정성이 높아져 기업에 유리함. 4년차: 대통령 임기 4년차는 S&P500 역사상 83%가 양(+)이며 평균 수익은 약 11%로 3년차보다 낮지만 여전히 양호. 리스크 판단: 미국 및 해외 시장의 큰 하락 리스크는 임기 초 2년에 집중되어 있고 현재는 해당 시기가 아님. 큰 하락 가능성은 낮으며, 시장에 이미 반영된 공포는 실제로 나쁘지 않게 끝나면 상승 서프라이즈가 될 수 있음. 가격 전망: 7월 1일 기준으로 연말까지 약 7.5% 상승 가능, 내년에도 약 11% 기대수익. 다만 예측은 교육받은 추정일 뿐이며 경제 도전 과제로 인해 서프라이즈가 있을 수 있어 경계 필요. 출연자 전망: 현 시점은 지금보다 6개월 전만큼 좋지는 않고 9개월 전만큼도 아니지만 여전히 괜찮은 강세장이므로 즐길 만하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
I've made the point not just this time but before and before and before and about every before years that the nine months begin October 1st of a midterm election year is the most consistently profitable period in all of stock market history and I've pounded the table on that for a long time just a while back I stumbled upon this video featuring cam Fisher the founder of Fisher investment he's basically trying to predict what the economic future holds attempting to foresee what's in store for the rest of this and next year he's using a centuries word of data to see how us elections have historically influenced the market now let's listen to his start process uh before this cycle and the fact is I coin a phrase for it a long time ago the midterm Miracle we had a great midterm Miracle this time and the fourth quarter was positive last year starting the beginning of this pole market and then the next two quarters were similarly positive each of them running around 7% a little over so we end the first half up more than 15% on the S&P 500 and that's a great first half of the year and it's a great conclusion to the midterm Miracle so what happens after a midterm miracle and on that we got a lot of data because we got history going back with really accurate data going back to 1925 and we can say that the back half of third years of president's terms the aftermath of midterm Miracle is not as positive as the first half first half is positive 92% of all years but the back half positive about 80% and the average return in the back half isn't as good is in the first half but on average it's about 52% uh excuse me I misspoke myself it's about 7 and a half% about half of what you get in the first half half of the half but the fact is it's still pretty good and in fact going back to 1925 there have only been two periods where the back half was double- digit negative one 1931 going into the Great depression and then two in the flash crash of 1987 arguably the fastest bare Market in history which it really isn't because the 2020 Co bare Market was the fastest bare Market in history but it was the fastest be Market in history for a long time in that time period in the 1931 time period don't look anything like this time period and other than that the back half uh has only ever been off of the six times ever that the back back cap was negative the worst ever was down 3.7% this is not a very dangerous time midterm Miracle essentially means that the first half of 2023 was expected to be the most profitable period for the stock market and it Leed up to that expectation the S&P 500 Index a key stock market indicator climbed from 3,800 to 4600 points marking an impressive 17% gain in just 6 months all it Pi clearly has a significant impact on the stock market in the first two years of a president's term there's usually a lot of focus on major policy changes which can create uncertainty this uncertainty tends to have negative effect on the markets however as we move into the second half of the 4-year presidential term things St to stabilize the current President also starts thinking about their reelection which often results in an economic upturn although sometimes it's influenced by policies designed to boost the economy artificially historically the first half of the year before a presidential election year is typically positive for the stock market but what's behind this upward Trend and what can we expect in the second half of 2023 the same thing that causes the midterm mirle which is the shift from high political risk aversion in America at big legislations going through boom boom boom in the first two years of the president's term like we had in President Biden's presidency but before that in president Trump's presidency and before that in president uh Obama's presidency and then George W bush and then Bill Clinton Etc all big huge scary controversial legislation in modern American history uh goes through in the first two years and we all get freaked out by that and then the midterms bring in absolute a relative gridlock and that stops and the chatter and the political rhetoric keeps being but the actual legislation just quiets down which you may have noticed but it takes us a long time to adjust to the fact that you get stability for a few years you get relative quiet in your ability to plan and businesses love that if you're an American company you prefer smooth sailing right no one wants to juggle a ton of new laws or get tangled up in global politics well unless you make weapons what you want is a robust economy low interest rates and a Crystal Clear Vision of a peaceful future where you can plot your cores but here's the million dooll question is this Prosperity going to stick around for the coming months in other words is it time to roll the dice Investments now or should we just hold off for a while so in in in in that reality the effect lingers longer I'm just going to go on a little further the fourth year of a president's term isn't nearly as good as the third year the third year has the miracle and the aftermath of the miracle but the fourth year president's term been positive 83% history in the history of the S&P 500 and has lower average returns than the third year only a little over 11% but it's still pretty nice this is not a bad time most of the risk in the stock market in the United States and overseas because because overseas tends to Ripple to what the US market does with a reasonably High correlation most of the risk is in the first two years where you get a lot of big double digigit positives but you also get a lot of negative years in both the first and the second year we're not there now so my general advice is yes can we get downturn from here of course we can is the odds of that high no it's low and it takes something big bad and that we're not all talking about to make that happen because if it's big and bad and we're all talking about it's already been priced into the market now and if we're talking about all kinds of things people are afraid of that are false fear of a false factor is always bullish when things turn out to be better than people feared because it was a false factor and that surprise is bullish so my general view is this a pretty good time to own stop as good as 6 months ago no of course not is it as good as it was 9 months ago no of course not but the reality is it's still pretty good time it's still a bull market and you should enjoy it all right so based on historical Trends here's what we're looking at for next year in a bit if we start from July 1st we're likely to see the market grow by 7.5% by the end of this year and next year things should stay positive with an expected return of around 11% that doesn't sound too bad but don't forget these are just educated guesses even though K Fisher is a great investor anything can happen with the current economic challenges you can bet on a surprise or two along the way so stay alert and ready for whatever the financial roller coaster brings
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