저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 여전히 경기침체(하드 랜딩) 가능성이 높다고 보지만 시점은 불확실하며, AI는 실질적 변화이므로 엔비디아 같은 실적 견고 기업은 고평가라도 버틸 수 있다고 본다. 금융 버블과 유동성: 500년 자산버블 역사를 보면 저금리·무료 돈이 풀린 시기 뒤에는 항상 문제가 생겼다. 도지코인 80억 달러 인수 같은 사례가 그 신호다. 실리콘밸리은행·베드배스앤비욘드 같은 사건은 빙산의 일角일 수 있다. 기업 이익과 침체 규모: 침체 시 기업 이익은 20~30% 감소를 예상하며, 하드 랜딩이면 40~50%까지 갈 수 있다. 다만 침체가 널리 예상돼 기업들이 대비하고 있어 충격이 완화될 수 있다. 상업용 부동산: 오피스 부문은 원래도 문제였고 코로나 이후 재택 근무 확산으로 더 커졌다. 금리 상승이 부담을 키운다. 신용 경색: 향후 6~9개월 내 신용 경색을 우려한다. 은행 대차대조표는 장기 국채 매입(저금리 시기 1~2% 채권을 대량 보유) 때문에 이미 손상돼 있으며, 침체 시 신용카드·상업용 부동산 손실이 본격화될 수 있다. 유동성 흐름: 코로나 때 약 10조 달러(통화 5조·재정 5조)가 풀렸고, 일본은행 YCC 변경과 재무부 TGA 축소로 유동성이 일시 증가했다. 9월 이후 국채 발행 재개와 학자금 대출 상환 재개로 유동성 흡수가 예상된다. 경기 전망 변화: 다른 전문가들이 하드 랜딩에서 소프트 랜딩, 노 랜딩으로 전망을 바꿨지만 그는 침체 확률을 바꾸지 않았다. 다만 2023년 9월쯤 인플레이션보다 성장 둔화를 더 걱정하게 됐고, 침체 시점은 2023년 말로 수정했다가 다시 불확실하다고 밝혔다. AI와 엔비디아: 모든 AI 기업이 살아남진 않겠지만 AI는 인터넷만큼 파괴적일 수 있는 실제 기술이다(크립토와 달리). 엔비디아는 침체 중에도 주문과 이익이 70% 증가할 수 있어 높은 밸류에이션에도 불구하고 하락하지 않을 수 있다. 마이크로소프트도 AI 플레이로 언급됐다. 포트폴리오와 숏: 롱 포지션은 AI 종목 중심이며 엔비디아와 MSFT, MDB 보유를 언급했다. 숏은 올해 대체로 괜찮았지만 심층(in-depth) 숏은 실패였다. 그는 40년간 숏으로 돈을 벌었는지 확신하지 못하며 숏은 위험한 게임이라고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
ideal in the world of of risk reward there's a 500 year history of asset bubbles well documented in a book that you had some issues with the price of time and basically it documents and I had already known this about the last hundred years but it's going out for 500 years every time you've had a significant asset bubble economic trouble way ahead but yeah when you had 11 years of free money um people do stupid things all you have to do is look it up there below the stupidest is somebody paid 80 billion dollars for Dogecoin which was invented as a joke I mean that can only happen in the world of free money it also suppress people worrying about the kind of stuff I just talked about two or three minutes ago because you keep rates at zero but the fact that this was arguably the most disruptive economic period we've had since the late 1800s and there were no bankruptcies apparently they've started in the last few weeks tells me there's a lot of stuff under the hood when you go from this kind of environment the biggest broadest asset bubble ever and then your jack rates up 500 basis points in a year I think the probabilities would suggest that Silicon Valley Banks Bed Bath and Beyond they're probably the tip of the iceberg the stock market bubble of the 1920s the.com bubble of the 1990s and the real estate bubble of the 2000s were asset bubbles followed by Hard Times draculer thinks that the easy availability of money is created a big issue for our economy and we haven't seen the worst of it yet we've had a few companies go bankrupt when the free money flow stopped but not as many as we might normally expect based on history but what's gonna happen next I could see corporate profits down 20 to 30 percent normally I would say 40 or 50 in a hard Landing but this recession is so anticipated I don't think a lot of corporations are going to be caught with their pants down which is how normally you lose a lot of money as you're not prepared for something that happens um commercial real estate and you know I'm not informing anybody in this room with something they don't know but office is a problem it would have been a problem anyway but but change of Lifestyle in covid makes it even bigger problem financing rates going up and I get a problem I'm worried about credit tightening the next six to nine months obviously the banks are going into an economic period that if in fact we get a recession their balance sheets are already impaired not from where they usually lose money which is loans um from the fact that the FED convinced them that they're going to keep rates to zero until 24.
uh so they bought a bunch of treasuries yielding one or two percent and now they're carrying them at five so so their balance sheets are impaired but if we get in a recession then the real losses comes which is stuff like credit cards commercial real estate that kind of stuff so those would be my my worries banking is basically the backbone of the economy Banks make most of their profits on interest income so the slowing of sectors like commercial real estate can cost them a lot of trouble because they will earn Less on these laws which will lead them to make less profits it adds even more pressure to the banks that most of them put significant amounts of money into long-term U.S treasuries on lower interest rates all of this already makes their balance sheet weak enough but if we get into a recession and people will get behind on the repayment of their loans it can be disastrous for the banks and for the economy other people because we haven't had an economic decline start yet have changed their forecast from a hard Landing of soft landing and a lot of others have changed it from soft Landing to no Landing I haven't changed mine at all the fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't change the probability if it does happen of the depth of it I mean basically 10 trillion dollars 5 trillion monetary 5 trillion fiscal was put in during covid what has happened is that created this giant giant stock of liquidity I think Jamie dimon said a couple years ago there were two and a half trillion access demand deposits um we've been working that liquidity off slowly that liquidity Interruption liquidity shrink was interrupted when Bank of Japan changed ycc they went in and they bought 400 billion dollars worth of bonds to defend their bond market very odd situation they raise rates but then liquidity exploded on it and then obviously the debt ceiling um secretary Yellen Drew down the TGA that's basically the treasury savings account from 700 billion to practically nothing last week that also ended up in non-issuance of government debt so that was a big boost of liquidity all that is set to change now actually the TJ is going to go the other way she's already stated she wants to build it back up to normal levels so you're going to have probably about 800 billion in treasuries issued between now and Year End the Fed will be continuing on with QT you've got the student loan thing which I think has kept consumption up that's all changing in September they're going to have to actually God forbid the United States somebody actually pays interest on a loan so to me the probabilities haven't changed it's been pushed out relative expectations but in no way does the fact that it hasn't started yet change the probability of whether it's going to be hard or soft I would actually argue since it's taken so long the FED has ended up with a higher terminal rate and in fact inflation gets stickier the long it stays in the system that it increases not decreases it probably of a hard Landing by the way after the 87 crash I was convinced we're going to have depression so I've been wrong before and if I'm wrong on this I'll I'll adjust but I have to weigh the probabilities and do what I do in my process and right now that's where we are and when uh I have been I think September is the first time when I was sort of a boom afraid of booming economy inflation guide too I'm more worried about um growth that I am about inflation and originally I was fourth quarter of 23.
I temporarily maybe lost my mind or maybe I was ripe when the Silicon Valley thing happened and got anecdotals and stuff that is traditionally LED like trucks and Retail move that up to now I think I'm probably wrong and I'm going to go back to the end of 23 but the real answer is I don't know so recession or no recession though one thing that's interesting and you included a lot of people are very encouraged by certain areas of the market particularly the AI boom there's always stuff to do we had a hard Landing in 74.75 and chemicals and oils and that stuff did great I'm sorry go ahead answer well do you think that all of AI makes it through this recession or do you think that some areas of the market particularly in AI start to look like they're in bubble territory well all of AI is not going to make it through whether we have a recession or not because they haven't separated the wheat from the traf shaft yet but I do believe um unlike crypto I think AI is real it's probably it could be as transformative as the Internet it's a huge thing and I think I've argued publicly that if Staples can go up in price in a recession why can't a company like Nvidia if they go up if they go up if their orders and earnings go up 70 percent in a hard Landing which is what I think would probably happening it's not clear that me that Nvidia goes down despite the Loft evaluation level history has proved if you do if you have very good earnings in a recession and they're sustainable if they're not the market somehow figures it out those stocks will do just fine so um we have some lungs we have some shorts and the AIS have sort of dominated the long portfolio for five or six months it was interesting to me that Drucker Miller said AI will possibly be as disruptive as the internet was if you take a look at his portfolio he holds about 500 million dollars worth of mbds stock which is the clear winner of the AI boom so far most of the potential billion or trillion dollar AI companies do not even exist yet but it's safe to assume that Nvidia is the best bet if you want to get into AI Draco Miller also owns about 300 million dollars worth of Microsoft stock which can also be a nice AI play how do you think about going short in this market our shorts have been fine this year except by in-depth shorts which have been a disaster but we always short the same way I just try and look at the current situation and then I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now based on my forecasts and I think if I think the security prices are going to be less um then I short them frankly I'm not sure I've ever made money if I took back the last 40 years I'm afraid to look I've never had a down year but I'm not sure I've made money in shorts I like it it's fun but you can get your head handed to you so to summarize what he said he still thinks heartlanding is more than likely the longer the inflation stays around the stickier it gets so we should be cautious about this but as a severe recession has been talked about for the last few years most of the companies are prepared will want which can make the effect lighter AI is a huge thing and if you have a company that can produce strong earnings in a recession in a sustainable way like Nvidia does then it's not that crazy to think that even a trillion dollar valuation is valid last but not least shorting can be a very dangerous game that most people should not play
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