저자: RokoInvestment · 외국인
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it was the fir I try to explain to people their great advantages their edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks right and they should do it on the right basis this was on the first book right yeah and obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets involved in stocks has gone down in 1960 people had 40% of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds and 80 that was down to 25% it's now down to 177% and why do you think that is well I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their methods were so flawed so I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things right if you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank correct your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with I remember there was a story of your wife and her hose your wife kept saying legs your wife said these are the greatest things I've ever seen and when your wife said that you knew that this was a product that was better you used to stay at La quenta motel and the service was better whatever was better and the price was good too and you said this is a place that I can determine I Peter lnch can tell that this is a good product right if these people making a good product then their earnings are going to go up therefore the stocks going to go up and that's the kind of decision- making process you ought to go through right do I have it you've got it exactly right well I I don't think people understand this 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's is done very well as a company right the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened to the price of oil whe who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go up but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but I it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on earnings they are very important but you have no idea knowing what they're going to do Allan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first to he can influence them but he can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to predict interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 882 1982 we had a 20% prime rate 14% unemployment 12% inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things people have natural advantages yeah let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry right you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants you saw McDonald's you saw Chi-Chi you saw chilies you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these stories these were 40 40 fold you made 40 or 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times your life right no that's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks you need a lifetime instead people that're in the restaurant industry they're buying biology stocks the people in the C nothing about the people in the chemical industry are buying are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them so that's that's bad number one but worse number two is they don't if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist you're not go out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble so your advice is what if you don't understand a company if you can't explain it to a 10-year-old in two minutes or less yes don't own it because when it goes down let's say the stock goes down two points you won't understand what's going on what do you do do you buy more do you do you do you flip a coin chances are your broker doesn't either you they he he or she certainly doesn't know about it I mean who knows what Advan what all these things are with auto back planes and mega flops who knows what all this so buy what you know Buy in your industry buy what you know buy local companies so suppose you you don't have an industry I mean you know you don't really well you buy local companies companies in your own industry 10 years the W went public 10 years after 10 years after it went public it's a 25y old company now right you could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it 50 times this if you bought it 10 years after after it was public already it already gone up fivefold so you could have made 250 fold but I'm saying let's say you were in a town they came into it and they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spent a little bit of work on it I mean people are very careful they when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put $10,000 in some stock they hear on a bus so if you did a little bit research you say Walmart's only 10% of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country I try and make it very simp and I talk about a wonderful example is a seventh grade class yeah the teacher of that read my book and my first book that you were talking about you you and I did a show on that Washington you remember that show this is a long time ago she read the book and I said if you made it through fifth grade math you can do it in the stock market she says okay she started teaching it in seventh grade seventh grade class these kids had to study companies they had to look at their Bal sheets to see if they're solvent and they pick stocks these stocks were up 69% over two years when the market was up only 20 and they picked stocks like limited they picked the Gap they picked Walt they understood these companies they also picked IBM I lost money on that too I mean everybody makes mistakes every did yeah but I'm saying this is this was this was a school St agon School in Arlington Mass but in addition in the decade of the 80s there was 8,000 investment clubs these are amateur sort of right average people just investing these investment clubs 62 2% of them of these clubs beat the market in the decade of the 80s only 25% of professionals beat the market let me go back I'm hoping the market goes down and the stock will go down and I'm going to back up the truck and buy a lot of shares I think now is the time to look at cyclical stocks I think the economy is going to get better around the world in 94 it's already getting better in 93 in United States and even better in '94 better in '94 because right now it's slumping in germanyy and it's slumping in Japan so I think now is the time to look at cyclical companies in the paper industry the aluminum industry the steel IND they've cut the cost they're the lowest cost producers in the world and when things get better they're going to make a lot of money what about little small companies we should look at all this tens of thousands one small company well I guess I'd say OB pans the small or another one would be Jay Baker is a relatively small what they do it's a retailer or Super Cuts they do haircuts that's a small company Peter Lynch is back with a new book called beating the street it is always interesting to have him here uh what up on Wall Street was one of the better best sellers uh ever to about Wall Street and and it is very simple which most things are very simple uh and when you understand them you can understand uh what makes the world work I appreciate you being here thank sure
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