저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 긴축해도 인플레이션은 잡지 못하고 경기만 침체시켜 스태그플레이션이 올 것이니 버블 자산을 버리고 실물자산·금·해외 가치주로 옮기라는 주장. 연준 정책 비판: 연준은 백미러(CPI)만 보고 통화를 계속 찍어내 자산 버블과 부채를 키웠고, 이제 긴축은 부실한 긴축(완화에서 약간 덜 완화)에 그쳐 버블만 터뜨릴 뿐이다. 인플레이션 전망: CPI 7%는 정부의 왜곡된 계산 방식 때문이며, 1970년대 방식으로 계산하면 지난해 약 15%로 1970년대보다 나쁘다. 2022년은 2021년보다 더 나쁠 것이다. 기업들의 밀린 가격 인상이 1월 이후 이어질 것이다. 원자재 전망: 유가는 이미 폭등해 배럴당 85달러이며 올해 100달러 이상, 최대 150달러, 내년에는 150달러 이상으로 본다. 에너지·농산물·산업재 전반이 오른다. 원인은 공급 부족이 아니라 과잉 통화다. 정책 실수: 코로나 후 통화량을 줄였어야 했으나 재난지원금으로 소득을 늘리며 수요를 키운 것이 최악의 정책 실수다. 투자 조언: 저금리에 떠받쳐진 버블 자산(기술주·암호화폐)에서 빠져나와 현금이 아닌 실물자산·금·은·가치주(유럽·아시아 배당주)로 이동하라. 미국 달러 자산(채권 포함)은 특히 피하라. 채권은 현금보다도 나쁘다. 리스크 및 출연자 전망: 인플레이션을 잡으려면 경제 전체가 무너질 수밖에 없어 정책 딜레마가 크다. 은퇴자가 가장 피해를 입고 있다는 주장.
다듬은 글
the problem is they're going to raise rates enough to crush the economy but not enough to slow inflation and in fact as inflation gets worse that's going to be another drag on the economy you know the interesting thing is i'm not doing anything differently because i've been preparing for this crisis for a long time in fact a lot of people were making fun of me because i've been preparing for so long because they think that what i'm preparing for is never going to happen well it's going to happen it hasn't really started yet but we're getting close you know the problem is the fed's been operating its monetary policy while looking in the rear view mirror because they keep creating inflation right printing money quantitative easing whatever you want to call it and they keep printing more and more money and they look at the rear view mirror and they look at the cpi and as long as it's below two percent or some version of it is below two percent they think it's okay to keep printing money meanwhile they're ignoring the road ahead they keep looking at the rear view mirror at these cpi numbers uh and they kept you know putting money in inflating asset bubbles and distorting the economy and and leading to these debt bubbles and letting the government get bigger and bigger and bigger spending more and more borrowed money and then all of a sudden they look in their in the in the windshield and they're staring at these big cpi increases and their initial reaction is oh don't worry about it uh it's nothing and then after a few more months well you know it's transitory it'll go away and now they've got this huge problem which has been inevitable for a decade in fact back in 2009 when the fed first made the mistake of going down this road of quantitative easing and zero percent interest rates i predicted exactly the predicament that they're now going into because they have this massive inflation problem they can't do anything about it they're talking about tightening up on policy but what they're talking about doing is going from very loose policy to slightly less loose policy they're not talking about tight money which is what they would actually need to put out this inflation fire but by light by tightening up a little bit they're going to prick the bubbles or they've already pricked the bubble and you're seeing all these risk assets imploding right now in price the economy is already rolling over into recession just because the fed is supplying less monetary heroin than they were but the fact that they're still supplying some means that the inflation problem is going to keep getting worse so this is the fed's worst nightmare it's stagflation and the question is what are they going to do are they going to keep tightening up policy and push the economy into another financial crisis not just a recession or are they going to reverse course go back you know reverse any rate hikes inc expand quantitative easing and just make the inflation problem much worse yeah well seven percent is the number that you get when you use their rigged uh methodology for calculating consumer prices and they often compare the inflation today to the 1970s to try to make it appear like it's not that bad oh yeah it's seven percent but it's nothing like the 1970s well it's actually worse than the 1970s if you used the same cpi that was used to measure prices in the 1970s and if you use that identical cpi today last year was actually worse than any year during the decade of the 1970s it was about 15 and the bad news is 2022 is going to be even worse than 2021 because a lot of companies held back on price increases because they thought it was all transitory well now that they realize that's not the case you have a lot of companies that are rushing to make up for lost ground and they're announcing major price hikes here in january they're probably going to do more later in the year look at the price of oil it's already exploding it's up about 20 percent in the last few weeks we're at a new high for the year or 85 hours a barrel i think we're headed over 100 this year maybe closer to 150 i think by next year we'll be above 150 in the price of oil it's not just oil it's all sorts of energy but it's agriculture it's industrial materials the government is trying to blame it on a supply shortage it's not a shortage of supply it's a surplus of money it's all the money printing that is creating the problem had the fed done the right thing after covit and contracted money supply then we wouldn't see these big price increases maybe there would have been a reduction in supply but there would have been an offsetting reduction in demand instead we reduced supply because everybody was staying at home instead of working but we increased demand because we gave all the people who were staying at home more money to spend than when they earned than what they used to earn when they actually went to work so it was the worst of all policy mistakes uh we threw gasoline on the the inflation fire and and now we're dealing with the consequences and it's just getting started the problem is they're going to raise rates enough to crush the economy but not enough to slow inflation and in fact as inflation gets worse that's going to be another drag on the economy and so what you've got to do what i'm trying to tell you is you got to get out of all of the bubble assets that were propped up by all the cheap money because even though money is cheap it may be slightly less cheap for a while and that and that's enough to collapse the bubble but you can't just go to cash because inflation is very high and it's eroding away the value of your cash there's no safety there you can't buy bonds bonds are even worse than cash because it's cash in the future but in the meanwhile you're tying your cash up and inflation is eating it up so people have to go out of these risky momentum stocks into value and what we're seeing is a massive shift out of u.s growth stocks to international value stocks stocks in europe stocks in asia basic businesses that have real earnings right now that pay good dividends right now that's where investors are hiding out that's why you're seeing some of these stocks up 10 20 on the year with no news even as u.s tech stocks are cratering and all the bubble stocks and including the cryptocurrencies all that stuff is going down you got to get into real assets you got to get into value you got to get out of paper and you got to get out of u.s paper in particular because we've got the biggest inflation problem that we can't do anything about because we're so loaded up with debt there's no way to fight inflation without collapsing the entire economy because the whole economy is built on the foundation of these artificially low interest rates but in order to fight inflation you have to remove that foundation and then if you do that everything built on top of it comes crashing down yeah you know it's certainly not too late to listen to us in fact it's better to listen now uh because you could have stayed in the you know casino that the fed created all these years and made a bunch of money in tech stocks or cryptocurrencies and you could take your chips off the table now and you could buy a lot more gold and silver than what you could have bought had you bought it five or ten years ago there's no question about that but you think you're really pressing your luck if you're staying in that casino oh yeah the people who get hurt the most are the people who are retired you know when i you hear the news reports they always want to focus on wages and whether wages are keeping pace with inflation which they're clearly not but at least if you've got wages and they're going up five percent and prices are going up 10 well you're only 5 poor but if you're retired and you've got a fixed income and you know and prices go up 10 you you you get stuck with the whole 10 and you know a lot of these retirees have been forced out on the risk curve they've got all these overpriced stocks that pay no dividends and those stocks are crashing right now and their whole retirement is going up in smoke
Comments 0