저자: Finance Fox · 외국인
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it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation's about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we're a little bit over 20. now we have a very low inflation rate so if you usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the p of the market that's been a pretty good ratio when inflation was 12 you remember the early eighties with eight or nine p in the market well we had a huge run i mean the market was four thousand just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it ran up to 8 300 in august and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off i mean it's healthy in fact i mean i'd rather gone down a thousand points than gone to twelve thousand if you look at japan japan went from five thousand to fifteen thousand on their dao it was fairly priced at fifteen thousand on earnings and everything else then it went to forty thousand and that caused seven years of inflated real estate people spending and basically they've been a recession for five or six years because their market went up too high i mean the market goes up too high i mean if the market goes too high you're discounting earnings seven eight ten years out because everything is overpriced yeah and that doesn't help anything the market since world war ii is sold between 10 times earnings and 20 times right if you look at the dow jones of the sap fund if you add up all the companies and take the earnings you say there's a relationship and it follows mcdonald's earnings have been terrific the last 30 years the stock's been tripped there's a direct relationship so the earnings of the s p 500 have been between this range of 10 and 20.
we were just about to go over the 20 which is the high end of the pe range there wasn't a lot so 20 is too is is it the top of how high it should ever be right it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation's about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we got a little bit over 20.
now we have a very low inflation rate so if you usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the p of the market that's been a pretty good ratio when inflation was 12 percent you remember the early 80s with eight or nine p in the market so dr lynch says all of this has been good for us well i'm telling you it would not have been helpful it's like a burger i never thought i'd ever wish for the market to do not go up dramatically but let's just let's argue the mark went to 16 000 tomorrow basically there's earnings behind companies you know i would say fairly priced made for the larger companies they're now okay there might be some small companies we've had 3 000 companies come public the last four years that's true of business day some of those companies have gone down dramatically and that sort of research zone that average people in the stock shop that we could find some people know a lot about this 10 000 public companies a lot of them are very attractive no one's following them but you have to look at 20 to find one it's just you know go to the mall and find the stock and you have to say my god this sounds like it's good then you have to do some steps you have to do an organized method people are careful when they buy a toaster careful they're careful they buy it they do they do some research but they don't do it with stock it's called the broker they see somebody at lunch and they said one modest point though i mean every time you get you have to get a memories that gets very cold in the winter in some parts of the country you get a memory that winter's coming something did really happen in southeast asia i mean those that did those economies of what happened in this market i think so that was the reminder saying by the way you know profits can go down i mean there's a downside but why was that the cause i mean did what's happening in southeast asia affect the earnings potential of all these companies you're talking about they do because they can't sell their products no because those economies been growing double-digit and all of a sudden now they're gonna because of bank problems because they're over financed they're under leverage i mean they're gonna have they're to have to bring their belts those parts and then people said whoa maybe that'll become it'll have china is now the fourth largest economy in the world maybe china can go into recession this sort of woke people it's like a wake-up call saying whoa maybe there's a chance or anything around i mean this is not a big deal for the united states when mexico went down much more important but it sort of said people was it much more important well mexico was much to mexico much more from the united states than thailand or the philippines their economy is very important to us they're a big consumer very important they're a neighbor a lot of people there that's a very important and that went down that effect the latin rate was more important so the recession 1990 but it sort of reminded people they'd say wait a second there is a downside we have we've had nine recessions since world war two we'll have other ones one thing you're trying to do is all these public companies out there here's the company i really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well the competitors are doing poorly i think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do you're not not just like the one who overpriced the fairly voice sometimes fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know five for four sale if you had been managing the magellan fund this morning you would have been buying like crazy i would have been researching like crazy i've been saying which companies are the same story is there anything really happen this is a non-event for them they're still doing well even if we have a recession there's nothing to do with them and that's the kind of kinds i'm trying to buy but let's say if a company just think about this as being you save yourself i think this comes to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay evil so you have to say yourself if i'm right how much am i going to make if i'm wrong how much i'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio stock shop we talk about if i'm right i hope i'm going to double trip my money if i'm wrong may i lose 30 40 percent that's a favorable ratio you say if i'm right the stock's not going to go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock that you know something about you have to have an itch let's say the cement industry goes from crummy to semi-crummy to fairly good the stocks are going north you're going to make money that's the industry you know when if you know the publishing industry you're you some people have you have an edge you work i mean what if you last 30 years you worked in the restaurant years you would have seen taco bell you would have seen some barrels you would have seen pizza hut you've seen chili's you've seen these companies doing very well you should have bought those instead of trying to buy biotechnology stuff you know nothing about i mean i know nothing about local area networking a lot of people are buying this cisco they're buying the equipment saying we're going to root together all these peripherals and put together the servers but but that's not a bad buy because they own a huge percentage of their market you know what that was they're saying only a few people had that went to my god if it works for us other people try it then colleges will try it high schools will try it they'll go overseas they knew they were early in the ball game and they should have been buying that company instead of out buying something they don't know anything about some oil drilling company i mean people have this tendency to always buy something they don't all you need is a few charlie all you need is a few good stocks this is your song this has been yourself for a long time only buy what you know but people waking up in the morning there's five thousand companies out there which one should i buy the average person ought to be able to follow four or five companies there'll be a lecture on it they understand the companies and this forces you what are the cash looks like and if you don't understand cashes if you understand what debt is well i said let's say you look at companies that are doing poorly they're not doing very well why don't you buy the one that has 300 million dollars in cash instead of the one that's almost bankrupt i mean a lot of companies are selling two or three dollars a share they might be losing 10 million dollars but people don't do it well because they don't know how to do the research you can look up the balance you say listen they get three million dollars in cash they're losing 10 million a quarter they'll be okay this other company's got no no cash 700 million dollars in debt they're about to blow tablets but you're telling every small investor in america anyway they ought to invest in a mutual fund aren't you i'm telling you you can do both you ought to you could be invested mutual funds and occasionally you should be able to find a stock that's going to make a difference in your life if it's an industry you know something about the industry or local company there's a lot of people that they sell the kind of motorings in texas they said my guys i mean a lot of people have seen local companies friendlies there's been companies come along locally the people made st jude medical made a lot of money for people it was that motel you stayed in and then you bought a bunch of it was that laguna that's what it was right you stayed overnight there and i also got advice from somebody that was a competitor there's a halloween guy saying they're killing us you get a lot of information don't throw it away and used to be used to be able to retire and you get half your last year's salary you'd have a pension you could rely on that now you have to do it for yourself some people are presented there but they're let go of their early retirement they're giving 500 000 and they say this is it this is your retirement lady you're going to take care of it now and some of you have lost all that money and options in the last three months so what you're saying to people today about the future of the market over the near term is what what's your feeling we can have to buy business we could take a coin out and flip it i have no idea what the next thousand points gonna do the next six thousand points can be up the next fourteen thousand points will be up the next twenty thousand points coming up but you don't know where the next thousand is gonna be it could be down it could be uh nobody does and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now it'll be a lot higher 20 years from now that's what you could rely on microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago staples didn't exist 20 years federal express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along that's what's going to make it stop 20 years ago that's what makes amgen has two 1 billion drugs they didn't exist 20 years ago new companies have come along that's what makes this country work you got to keep your eyes open okay is the game over in asia no god no you can't you know some of these companies have a 56 savings rate they have a high literacy rate the game's not over but you know they're gonna they're gonna have to have they lost something well they're going to have to although some of the lending they get carried away there's i mean they're going to have to you know step back figure it out and go ahead it's certainly not over nation no way
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