저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 인플레이션은 연준의 양적완화와 정부의 CPI 축소 집계로 과소 측정되고 있으며, 실제 물가 상승은 공식 수치보다 훨씬 높다. 공식 CPI는 조작되어 실제 물가 상승률을 과소 반영한다. 주거비를 실제 임차료가 아닌 '귀속임대료(OER)'로 측정하고, 품질 조정과 대체 효과로 가격 상승분을 줄인다는 주장이다. 1980년대 방식으로 측정하면 현재 물가상승률이 15%를 넘는다고 주장한다. 정부가 물가를 낮게 잡는 이유는 사회보장·메디케어 지출 축소(COLA 조정)와 GDP 디플레이터를 통한 실질성장률 과대 포장이다. 연준은 2% 목표를 '상한선'이 아닌 '목표'로 바꾸어 제로금리와 QE를 정당화했다고 비판한다. 코로나 이후 대규모 QE와 봉쇄로 생산은 줄었는데 현금 지원으로 소비만 늘려 물가가 상승했다고 본다. 무역적자를 통해 인플레이션을 중국 등에 수출했으나, 이 달러가 되돌아오면서 물가가 더 빠르게 오를 것이라고 전망한다. 주류 애널리스트들은 인플레이션을 일시적(transitory)이라 보며 공급망 병목과 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 탓으로 돌리지만, 발언자는 이를 동의하지 않는다. 언급 자산 방향: 직접적인 종목·지수 가격 예측 발언은 없음. 금리 방향에 대한 명시적 전망도 없음(연준 정책의 부적절성만 비판). 리스크: 인플레이션 장기화 시 연준이 2% 복귀를 위해 버블 경제를 파괴할 수밖에 없다는 구조적 리스크 경고. 주가·부동산 등 자산 버블 우려. 출연자 전망: 물가는 공식 발표보다 높고, 인플레이션이 계속 상승하며, 연준이 이를 되돌리기 어렵다고 판단.
다듬은 글
you know we've had the inflation for years the fed has been creating inflation they just call it quantitative easing but what they're really doing is creating inflation what finally happened recently is that all that inflation showed up in a very big way in consumer prices highly rigged cpi that has been understating the rate at which prices have been rising for years and by the way we are in double-digit price increases if we accurately measured those increases it's only because of the inaccurate measurement that we're using the cpi that we're still under 10 but if we measured prices today the way we measured them back in the 80s because we often want to compare today's inflation to the 80s and 70s it's actually north of 15 it's actually worse than any year of the 1970s yeah well it's just that the government statisticians live in a fantasy world and the average american lives in reality i mean nobody pays owner's equivalent rent so why does the government use a number that no american pays as the largest component of the cpi why not use actual rent the rent that people pay because that number is triple or quadruple this number that the government has concocted or why not use house prices that are actually going up more than rents because people actually buy houses and they have to pay those prices and they've made other changes to the cpi that did not exist prior all the substitution uh where the basket is not the same but it constantly changes they take out the stuff that went up and they put stuff in that went down or didn't go up as much and they have ways of hedonically adjusting things so they claim that prices didn't go up when they did or claim that prices went down when they went up because they're making a subjective assessment of quality but oftentimes i think they reduce prices when quality goes up but they don't increase them when quality goes down the point is the government has every reason to understate inflation in fact when they first did it it had to do with the budget they were trying to reduce spending on social security and medicare but no politician had the guts to actually reduce social security or medicare so they found a way to reduce the colas so that they wouldn't be increasing them by the true rate of inflation and so they changed the methodology for calculating inflation so it enabled the government to cut spending without officially voting to cut spending so that's what it's how it started but you know it delivers all sorts of benefits to the government because by under stating inflation you also overstate growth because whenever they take the gdp numbers they use an inflation rate to deflate it the gdp deflator because they want to show what's happening to the real economy and take inflation out and so when you pretend that inflation is lower than it actually is it makes it appear that the economy is growing faster than it actually is and all politicians want to take credit for economic growth and so by lying about inflation and under reporting it they can pretend the economy is much stronger than it actually is but more recently it's the federal reserve that's been able to hide behind these doctored inflation figures as a pretense to continue its reckless monetary policy the fed has been able to justify zero percent interest rates in qe on the basis of inflation still being below their two percent target which first of all two percent was never a target it was supposed to be a ceiling it wasn't like if inflation was one percent they had to get it up to two percent but they turned the ceiling into a target in order to pursue an inflationary monetary policy but inflation was never too low that was just a canard that was just a false excuse for the fed to do what it wanted to do which was to prop up government spending to continue to blow air into a bubble to artificially push up stock prices and real estate prices but it didn't want to admit that was its goal so it came up with this ridiculous goal of that there not being enough inflation and trying to raise the inflation rate well all the years the fed was pretending this was their goal i was warning what was going to happen when they overshot because eventually i said the official numbers would be much much higher than two percent and then the fed would be in a box because it would be impossible to ever bring the rate of inflation back down to two percent without completely destroying the bubble economy that low interest rates in qe had inflated i think we did have higher inflation back then and in fact had the government not done qe we may have actually had falling prices in 2009 or 2010 it was the great recession so prices probably should have come down but because of all the inflation we created they went up instead and of course they went up by more than the government admits because we're still looking at the cpi but the reason it's so much worse now than it was back then is because we've printed so much more money look at the enormity of the qe program subsequent to uh covet and you know look at the number of dollars that have been put into circulation over the past couple years a lot of the qe that was done you know following the financial crisis was mainly focused in the financial economy so you saw a much bigger impact on asset prices like stocks and real estate but this time around the government sent all these checks directly to the people that they went and spent in fact the worst thing they did and i pointed this out real time is they told people not to go to work and to stay home in fact in many cases people were ordered not to work and to stay home so people couldn't produce goods they couldn't produce services their spending should have gone down because they weren't producing as much so they should have spent less and that would have meant a recession of course but the politicians didn't want that so they told the workers who were taking a vacation we're going to send you money in fact we're going to give you more money than you used to earn when you had a job even though you're staying at home and we want you to go out and spend that money well spend it on what nobody was making anything so when you make less stuff but you print more money to buy stuff prices have got nowhere to go but way up because the government didn't create any stuff they just printed more money to buy stuff and the other reason that the inflation was not as big is because we were able to export the inflation to our trading partners we run these enormous trade deficits which are now at all-time record highs they just blown through the roof as far as the size of these deficits we take the money to fed prince and we send it over to china and the chinese send us all the goods that they produce and they take those dollars and they buy treasuries or things like that but so that helps keep a lid on consumer prices but it also helps reduce interest rates and prop up stock prices so we've benefited from that but i think that dynamic is going to change i think a lot of the money we've exported is going to come back and prices are going to be bid up even faster with respect to inflation i think most analysts still expect that what we're seeing is transitory uh they just think the transition is taking longer uh than they thought first thought they still think the inflation is driven by supply chain bottlenecks or uh the war with russia and ukraine and so they think that all this stuff is going to unclog and prices are going to magically stop rising
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