저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 의료 솔루션이 시장 바닥을 형성할 것이며, 단기적으로는 변동성 큰 하락 추세가 이어질 수 있다. [시장 반등의 원인과 성격] 최근 반등은 정책이나 기술적 요인이 아닌 의료 이슈(사망자·감염자 감소, 치료제 개발 기대)에서 비롯되었다고 설명. [단기 시장 전망] 지난주처럼 하루 상승·하루 하락을 반복하는 변동성 장세가 예상되며, 전체적으로는 하락 추세가 유지될 것으로 봄. 다만 과거 급락 때처럼 가파른 하락은 아니라고 함. [하방 리스크] 직전 저점 대비 37% 하락한 상태에서 추가로 10~13% 하락 가능성을 언급. 최악의 경우 50% 하락까지 거론하며 추가 하락 여지를 열어둠. [투자 전략] 품질(up in quality) 중심 투자 권고. 대차대조표 압박이 큰 취약 종목은 매도하고 재무가 튼튼한 우량주로 이동할 것을 제시. 포트폴리오는 매일 점검하고 불확실성을 견딜 수 있는지 확인해야 한다고 강조. [경기 회복 관련] 경기 재개(restart) 시점과 방식이 가장 큰 불확실성이며, 경제 전망치가 빠르게 하향 조정된 만큼 이 충격의 심각성을 시장이 아직 충분히 반영하지 못했다고 봄. [출연자 입장] 스콧 갤로웨이 등 다른 전문가 의견도 참고하고 있으며, 의료 분야 긍정 소식이 계속 이어지길 바란다고 언급. [채권 전문가 비판 및 대응] 채권 전문가들이 지나치게 비관적이라는 비판에 대해 상대적으로 낙관적 입장을 취함.
다듬은 글
let me bring in Mohamed el-erian so Mohamed we had that that bounce back not last week but the week before and then we had last week's moved down which I was down about two and a half percent and your view is that we're gonna continue to have this grind lower because the market can't anticipate a lot of the fundamentals and unknowns that are still going to happen with with the coronavirus and with the pandemic so I'm wondering whether you still feel that way or whether you'd look at last week as constructive that because everybody was watching the taskforce we knew this was going to be the worst week ever so the market managed to to go down two and a half percent and it's getting back some four percent today are you still of the opinion that we can continue to grind lower to the old lows and then set some new lows or are you feeling better this morning so hey I am feeling better they're qualified but let me explain why I'm feeling better because I think it's really important we having a bounce on medical issues not on policy issues not on technical issues on medical and that's important for two reasons Joe first it's about people fewer people dying fewer people getting infected and secondly I've always said it's a medical solution that forms a bottom to this market the second reason that is positive is you see the ability of this market to get ahead of the OD cut where the economists are saying just as it is cut with now Steve the big issue I have is this is a bright spot in an otherwise still gloomy picture and I also listened to Scott this morning and I think that we need more than just one spot so I still think that the overall paradigm is gonna be like last week volatile I round it downward trend it is not a sharp eye that we had earlier it's not the sharp eye but it is still a downward trend but volatile yesterday we had it last week we had three days down two days up that's the sort of thing we're gonna have which is one day up on the ground one day upon day down okay there's a lot to unpack there and we go back and forth personally on things and and I you know we have our disagreements uh I'd say you're like all these Bond guys that are always too pessimistic for too long gun lacquer or whomever Bill Gross any of these Bond guys they're they just I don't know there is it's a dismal science so the next question that I have for you is what I asked mark grant if we so we're about from the previous lows to which we're down 37% we're probably we'd need to sell off ten twelve percent and if it really gets bad and we get one of those 50 percent breaks that we saw in the really horrific bear markets that we've seen in the past that would be still time to sell right now if we're going back to the lows of thirty seven percent and then another 13 percent lower to down fifty I think you should be too if you really feel that way I think you should be telling people to sell hey I don't think you should continue to say we're gonna grind lower but don't sell I don't think you can have it both ways so you need to sell or you need to to start start buying back in at this point so Joey what you haven't embraced is what I've said the last two weeks up in quality up in quality has a sell side and a buy side to it why up in quality because there's still potential for downside so you don't want to be in the vulnerable names and what are vulnerable names the ones that are subject to massive balance sheet stress you want to sell those but you want to go up in quality because now you're not really saying what you're not really seeing what you want to do you're just saying okay if that was like the time or there's a time when you you were negative on on US bond but you said while I participated with aperture this is true this is what in behind us and I know but that wasn't that wasn't oh this is really important because because people should hear this you want an easy go buy or sell know what every investor will tell you is that you revisit your portfolio on a daily basis and you make sure that it is it can withstand the uncertainty out there that's all that's that's what you do because I no one knows for so you want to be paid outside right well I have a problem with with thinking that maybe this gets a lot worse is that and it very well might but we can I have the same fears of the pandemic and of whether the economy can reopen of everyone but I just don't know if I feel like the real big players in the market are just there's totally checked out in terms of knowing that's gonna happen so when you say this could get worse or they can be where it can go to rolling into other cities and it can get worse there and then you know all the III think that that's kind of out there already know I think what's out there is understanding that this could still be severe and this could be durable okay that's out there and you've seen how much the economists projections have changed it wasn't so long ago that we are talking about is V coming down in the first quarter and going up in the second quarter now that we have twenty seven so that has trained we've understood now that this is a severe shock what we haven't yet internalized and we will is that the we start isn't like clicking on a switch and to like it's going to be a different landscape that is what that's where the uncertainty is is when how do we restart this economy and what does it look like when we restart it but but Mohamed you also said well yeah I'm a little more positive because it's a medical issue did improve well it you could have anticipated that that maybe some of the social distancing was going to flatten the curve you could have anticipated maybe in Europe Italy was going to start looking a little better you probably could also anticipate we're going to have positive vaccine news people are rushing to try to develop therapeutics Gilead ramping up production of rim desa vir the the hydroxychloroquine i don't know what finally happens with all it but you could almost assume that what i was saying is the necessity breed is the mother of invention and that's good so it shouldn't be a huge shock to you that something medical out comes along and is positive instead of assuming that all the next data points are going to be negative which drive us even further lower the jaw we should we should welcome that is happening this early we should welcome it that it reinforces that we collectively contribute to this to social distancing that that is the main message to this I would like to see it establish day after day after day and hopefully this is not just going to be one day that's that's all I'm saying but I listen to Scott you listen to Scott and others those are the professionals we not the medical professionals goes no I know that and Scott Scott has his own opinion and we get you know comments on whether Scott Scott at times he's a realist alright and and I and and I listen to everything he says and I try to listen to everything that I'm seeing everywhere but in the end I guess you know we're all hoping for a good outcome sooner rather than later you
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