저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기 V자 반등 기대는 낙관이며, 기본 시나리오는 U자 회복이고 2020년대 중반 이후 '대공황(Greater Depression)' 위험이 크다. 경기 시나리오: 기본은 U자형 회복으로 올해 성장은 매우 둔화. 주식시장은 V자 반등을 반영하나 자신은 동의하지 않음. 2020년 하반기 이후 강한 성장 가능성은 낙관 시나리오로 제시. 대공황 위험은 올해가 아니라 이번 10년(2020년대) 중반 무렵으로 봄. 수요 측면: 가계와 기업 모두 지출을 줄이고 저축을 늘려 소비·투자 침체, 글로벌 저축 과잉이 회복을 짓누름. 주택 매입 등 자본지출 감소, 부채 축소(디레버리징) 진행. 구조적 위기 요인(그의 'ten deadly D's'): 부채·재정적자 위기, 디플레이션 후 통화 평가절하와 인플레이션, 디지털 기술 혁신에 따른 자동화·로봇화, 세계화 후퇴와 포퓰리즘·권위주의 확산, 미중 냉전 심화와 사이버전, 팬데믹과 기후변화 등 인재성 재난. 정책 평가: 추가 재정·통화 부양은 부채 불균형과 통화 가치 훼손을 악화시켜 근본 해결이 어렵다고 봄. 정책이 위기 열차를 막기엔 이미 늦었다는 입장. 부채·신용 리스크: 민간과 공공을 합친 부채/GDP는 선진국 약 388%, 신흥국 300% 미만, 중국 약 300%. 제로금리로 정부 채권 금리는 낮지만 민간 신용스프레드는 폭발 가능. 특히 기업(대출·정크본드)과 그림자금융이 취약. Fed의 회사채 매입도 투자등급 위주라 한계가 있다고 봄. 렌터카 기업 챕터11 파산 등을 신호로 제시. 리스크: 단기 디플레이션 후 수년 내 1970년대식 공급충격형 스태그플레이션 위험. 연금·의료 등 미적립 부채도 부담. 출연자 전망: 기본 시나리오는 U자 회복, 2020년대 중반 대공황형 위기 가능성, 이 위기를 정책으로 막기 어렵다는 비관적 전망.
다듬은 글
Nouriel Roubini is a world-known economist he helped c4c the credit crisis of 2007-2008 he is the host of Nouriel today.com thank you for being with us appreciate your time a great week with you today thank you so I want to start Nouriel with your current thoughts on just how bad this can go I know you've written and talked at length lately about the components that could take this from recession to depression as you as you consider those how are we doing how our governments doing how is the reopening going are you worried that we're veering towards a bigger slump hmm well that three scenarios for how things are going to develop in the global economy North America this year my baseline is one of a u-shape recovery where the recovery is going to be an annex a far below trend very anemic the optimist and the markets at least the equity markets the US are pressing in v-shape recovery we're very strong growth in the second half of the year into next year and of course there is a risk of a el of what I call a greater depression that's my baseline for the rest of the decade but not for this year I think that there are four second leaders to a depression but the middle of the decade was not a prediction for this year essentially my view is that there's gonna be a you because this is a global shock both households and corporates will have to spend less and save more precautionary savings are going to go higher incomes gonna be lower and then there'll be less capital spending buoyed by the corporate sector and the household sector debt to deleverage for housing capital spending is purchase of the homes so you spend less you save more you do less tax will be a global investment slump will be a global savings glut that's a recipe for very anemic recovery or the u.s.
of Canada of the global economy so the one thing that I think sets you apart from many others and that would include the vast majority of investors is this notion that this is a crisis that we all recognize that there will be a action the question is how long and how deep related to this crisis you believe that later in the decade is when there's a price to be paid that this potential for depression and deep slump happens much later is there anything between now and then that we governments could do to stave that off unfortunately I fear that there are some major trends and in a recent publication I discussed what I call the ten deadly DS they're gonna lead us to a greater depression sometime later in this decade is only a matter of when not whether and I think that even if we're gonna do monitoring fiscal steamos or reform I think that train has left the station the train wreck is a slow-motion one it's not gonna happen this year but web fundamental forces like a debt and deficits both traveling public Emily to insolvency and fund a liability coming from demographics that are become worse and we've all understanding but then I had initially deflation Andrea body up that's gonna increase and that's gonna make more people more in solve and then worth debasing currencies by doing effectively quantitative easing or large fiscal deficit that eventually with negative supply stock is gonna lead to inflation by the middle of the decade we've also the digital disruption because they have it for economic activity from China in Asia to North America will have to substitute labor with capital in firms will have to cut cost to save more and spend less and that's going to imply more automation more robotics we are in the process of the globalization of the capellini ten years in China we are seeing this Democrat democracy backlash people are becoming scared of becoming more populist and the authoritarian populist government coming to power all over the world and we also this dualistic is the edgy gravelly in us in China the Cold War became yes in Chinese becoming colder is going to get very ugly web digital rivalries cyber warfare is going to get worse over the next few years this is the way warfare is going to be is not going to be conventional words the enemies of the Western us whether is China Russia Iran North Korea they cannot fight the u.s.
on the west with conventional weapons gonna use a symmetric warfare cyber warfare and we are weakening our economy society problems are interfere with the u.s. election and then finally we have also these what I call deadly man-made disasters pandemics and global climate change are not natural disasters even pandemics come from poor health condition destruction of ecosystems and so on let alone global climate change so yeah 10 for cells that are very fundamental that existed even before this crisis and each one of them is thinking about it is exacerbated and accelerated in varied wars but is crisis and therefore will end up into a great depression it's gonna happen this decade and policies cannot do much about it was actually policies of more stimulus monetary and fiscal crises and otherwise I'm gonna actually exacerbate the debt imbalances they're gonna exacerbate the debasement of currencies yes and with negative supply stop coming from the globalization protection he's been populist and economic nationalist that's gonna increase the risk of stagflation recession and inflation the underlying today the risk is deflation in a couple of years we'll have risk of inflation like we had when we had negative supply all shops in the 1970s so when seeing ahead a grade of the price of a theorem so then I mean as you note many of those things would have been a risk we're already a risk they are being exacerbated I just want to focus on one of the DS that's one of the first and that's the debt level personal m and of course sovereign we are in way over our heads we were before this credit card before this great crisis I in terms of how we get out of it is there is there a natural path that would resolve that because it doesn't seem clear with governments behaving the way that they are well in the last decade that levels that went higher initially they global financial crisis was too much private debt then we socialize the losses there was a massive increase in public debts estimates are the public and private debt as a share of GDP is now 350 as of the end of last year but this year might be closer to 400 in the advanced economies is 388 less than 300 in emerging markets in China about 300% so that that drinks are gonna become higher in last decade what saved us was with a decorator where I and was the rhetoric about deleveraging but there was not much deleveraging or caring that servicing ratios were low because we're short rates close to zero if not negative like in Europe and Japan and wait long rates alone now again the same thing is happening right now the policies of zero policy rates or negative or key we are living too short and long rates to be low but they are love only for safe sovereigns and save people in the private sector you can add zero policy rate you can have bond yields close to zero or negative but credit spreads in the private sector of those that had indebted whether households a corporate large and small ones financial institution bank's non-bank shadow financial institution and the copy of a robust credit spread can explode if you're a situation of excessive leverage and with an explosion of leverage in the private sector especially corporates in shadow banks a in US and parts of North America and therefore doesn't matter whether a bond yields are close to zero for save government or policy rates are zero credit spreads can blow up and if you blow up you have a debt crisis so now you have a deadly combination of rising debt level they're gonna explode and you'll have now ready to strike much higher than before yes some central banks are now buying corporate bonds and not just investment great the Fed decided even to go into the risky junk bonds but it's only for the names of those were investment greater now just below that tons of other firms that are deep into the junk bonds and they're not gonna be helped by the fact that cannot be by the fact just this morning announcement hurts major auto rental companies filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy you have major institution large and small they're gonna go bankrupt so we have a debt crisis is going to become explosive and with demographics and more spending on health care is needed to deal with pandemics will have unfunded liabilities from their care system that are unfunded like us Medicare most of the wall that are phase you go and then you let debt deflation because prices are gonna fall in the short run we and the ability of people to service that that is going to reduce that's what's called a effect situation can delay heel and mouth scenario so all these things are going to lead us to that crisis over time
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