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This is the logarithmic price of Nvidia stock. Nvidia is now trading at around $190 per share. What's interesting, however, is that when we overlay the global M2 money supply, meaning all the liquid money in the world, we see a striking correlation. This global M2 figure was calculated from data collected from international banks.
We can observe that whenever Nvidia's price rose or fell, it coincided with or was slightly preceded by a corresponding expansion or contraction in global liquidity. More money in the system means more can be spent and invested. Less money means less spending and investment. In other words, when liquidity increases, investors put more money to work and consumers spend more.
Higher spending drives corporate earnings upward and increased investment pushes valuations higher. The M2 supply tends to grow in line with the global economy. In Nvidia's case, we see an exceptionally high correlation of about 90%. This suggests that a sharp drop in Nvidia's price would likely correspond to a significant global contraction in liquidity.
Currently, the total global money supply stands at approximately $112 trillion. Michael Bur, the legendary contrarian behind the big short, is now betting $1.1 billion against Nvidia and Palanteer, which essentially means Bur is betting against the AI industry. Back in 2008, Bur made his name by shorting the US housing market through credit default swaps, a move most thought was crazy at the time.
When housing collapsed, his bet paid off massively, earning his fund hundreds of millions. Bur scan disclosed that it bought put options on Nvidia and Palanteer. According to CNN, the notional size, the amount of underlying shares implied is substantial, $912 million on Palunteer and $187 million on Nvidia.
The filings for Q3 reflect the positions as of September 30th. However, it isn't guaranteed they remain unchanged. We don't know that yet. A put option is a contract that gives us the right but not the obligation to sell a stock at a fixed price called the strike price before a certain date. So if we think a stock's price will go down, we can buy puts.
If the stock falls below the strike price, our put gains value. If the stock stays the same or rises, our put loses value. Right now in early November 2025, both Palanteer and Nvidia are trading at around $190 per share. Since the beginning of 2023, Palanteer has surged by about 2750%. For comparison, Nvidia, its most frequently mentioned peer, has risen by roughly 1,223% over the same period.
Since April 2025, the two companies have been moving almost in lock step. Both are major beneficiaries of the AI thematic chips by Nvidia and AI software by Palanteer and have seen strong rallies. The large bearish bet against them stands out precisely because they are among the AI darlings. This is the reasoning behind Bur's actions.
It shows a clear deceleration in cloud growth during the periods from 2018 to 2022 and from 2023 to 2025. The average year-over-year growth rates during these two periods have declined for all three of these companies, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Cloud is the backbone of AI. Slowing cloud growth could totally signal that enterprises are not scaling AI spending as rapidly as the current hype suggests.
Stocks like Microsoft and Alphabet have seen large AI premium expansions, but their underlying growth trajectory is flattening. This is in line with Bur's historic bubble detection instincts. When fundamental growth rates decelerate, but valuations rise, he tends to turn bearish. Could this be the very trigger?
Bur is suggesting that structural features of the AI boom resemble past bubbles. Keep in mind this is one investor's view, albeit a high-profile one. Bur's past has given him credibility, but it doesn't guarantee correctness going forward. We may be seeing this triangle again. Three conditions that happen in this order, and Bur's latest put options line up perfectly with it, and we're asking whether we're not in this scenario right now.
First, there's speculative euphoria. Rapid multiple expansion and unrealistic narratives. Asset prices rise without earning support. It used to be railroads, telecom, internet, AI. That's when narratives decouple from fundamentals. Second, there's positioning divergence. Smart money starts quietly betting the other way.
Hedge fund put options rise. Insider sales increase. Retail flow and passive ETFs keep buying. It's when the crowd and the capital disagree. Third, there's the major bare market, not a small correction. A drop just like in 1999 is entirely possible when bubble gets inflated too much. It is a triangle.
We've seen the previous two steps maybe happen right now. So, we're questioning whether the situation can be saved or whether the triangle will be completed. All of these news come right in the moment when Nvidia has become the first company in the world to reach a market capitalization above $5 trillion US.
The achievement was reported on October 29th, 2025 with the company's market value estimated at roughly $5.03 trillion. The surge is largely fueled by its dominance in AI hardware and the broader investment wave into AI infrastructure. Breaking the 5 trillion mark places Nvidia in entirely new territory.
It makes it more valuable than many entire national economies and shifts how companies are valued in the AI era. This also tells us how central Nvidia's chips are to the current tech investment narrative. None of the information provided should be considered financial advice or an investment recommendation.
Our goal is serving you the best educational content. Thanks for watching. This is Glenus.
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