저자: AngeloRico · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼의 2020년 CDS 보험 전략은 과거 사례 설명이며, 이 영상은 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측을 담고 있지 않다. 영상 배경: 2020년 4월 업로드된 스페인어 영상으로, 코로나19 위기 중 빌 애크먼이 약 2,700만 달러를 투입해 27억 달러 이상을 벌었다는 사례를 소개한다. 애크먼 펀드 상황: 운용 펀드 규모는 약 60억 달러이며, 1월부터 코로나19가 글로벌 금융시장 위기로 번질 수 있다고 판단했다고 설명한다. 헤지 전략: 포트폴리오 손실을 막기 위해 신용부도스왑(CDS) 보험을 매입했고, 이 보험 비용은 약 2,700만 달러였다. CDS 메커니즘: CDS는 신용위험을 이전하는 양자 계약으로, 보호 매수자는 주기적으로 프리미엄을 지급하고 신용사건 발생 시 보상받는다. 2008년 사례 비유: 2008년 서브프라임 사태에서 AIG의 CDS 판매 구조와 마이클 배리의 사례를 언급하며, 강변 주택 비유로 위험과 보험의 관계를 설명한다. 수익 구조: 보험 수익이 포트폴리오 손실을 상쇄했고, 이후 유동성으로 저평가 주식을 매수하고 있다고 전해진다. 평가 및 비판: 애크먼이 비난받는 데 대해 그가 바이러스를 만든 것이 아니며, 경제 봉쇄가 유일한 대응책이라는 입장을 밝혔다고 설명한다. 종목 언급: 애크먼 운용사(Pershing Square)의 주가도 코로나로 타격을 받았다가 수익 발표 후 급등했다고 언급한다. 마무리: 영상 말미에 세미나 홍보와 구독 요청이 있다. 참고: 영상 내 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인, 금 등)에 대한 앞으로 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Next, I'll share the story of Bill Ackman, the US hedge fund manager who, during this coronavirus crisis, by investing just $27 million, managed to earn over $2.7 billion. Please stay until the end, because this strategy is spectacular and can put many of the things happening right now into context.
Hello, how are you? Greetings, this is Angelo Rico speaking, and welcome to a new video on our YouTube channel, Investing by Learning. Before we begin, remember that if you find these types of videos valuable, if you're learning and they offer you the kind of inspiration and knowledge you can integrate into your trading and that can lead to better decision-making, and if we're achieving these goals, give us a thumbs up, share our posts on your social networks, and subscribe to our channel.
If you haven't already heard of him, Bill Ackman is the director of the investment management company Pershing Square Capital Management, a firm that operates on the stock exchange. It is a hedge fund, or alternative investment fund, which in general terms is dedicated to carrying out investment operations in stocks.
The performance of this asset manager's fund is not very different from that of most investment funds around the world. They have been severely punished by the sharp drop in stock prices, and we all know that the main driver of this decline is the coronavirus.
So how did Bill Ackman manage to turn $27 million into $2.7 billion? This strategy fascinates me because it brings to mind the events of 2008 and everything that led to the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market. As I mentioned at the beginning, Bill Ackman manages an investment fund with a current value of approximately $6 billion.
What he says, and what can be deduced from his interviews throughout January and February of this year, is that at the beginning of January he came across the coronavirus problem. He began to study it and understood that it could potentially trigger a new global stock market crisis. He started monitoring everything happening in China, how the virus was spreading so quickly, and what the consequences would be when the only way to contain it was to quarantine the entire population, and therefore all industries, thereby brutally punishing economies.
It was understood very early on that what was only affecting China in January 2020 would eventually spread to the major Western economies, including the US, and that once this began to materialize, one of the first things to be punished would be the stock market indices and the share prices of publicly traded companies.
So pay attention to the following: Bill Ackman has an investment fund worth 6 billion dollars. What he thought, and the strategy he designed, was this: I have this investment fund; we are surely going to lose significant value as a consequence of the coronavirus, but what we can do is protect our investments through insurance.
What does this mean? From that moment on, he began buying insurance for his investments. If the value of the investments fell, he could collect on the insurance, and the insurance payouts would offset the potential losses. This is exactly what Bill Ackman did. Starting in January, he began carrying out credit protection operations worth approximately $27 million.
None of the financial institutions, especially in the US, considered the coronavirus a real danger to the financial markets, and that is why they agreed to sell him derivatives called credit default swaps, also known as CDS. CDS became famous after the collapse of the financial system in the US, mainly after the fall of American International Group in 2008.
At that time, AIG was the largest insurer in the world, and its bankruptcy was caused precisely by the sale of this type of mortgage insurance to various financial institutions and individuals. So what are CDS, and what was their specific role in this highly profitable operation for Bill Ackman, which also played a crucial role during the financial crisis of that year?
In 2008, credit default swaps were bilateral contracts that transfer credit risk between two counterparties: one that buys protection and pays a periodic premium, and another that sells protection and receives those premiums, but must make a payment if a credit default occurs.
I also suggest you check out a video we recently published telling the story of Michael Burry and how he discovered a potentially catastrophic event with subprime mortgages very early on. Because he discovered it early, he designed the derivative instruments called CDS. He designed them and then began buying them from various financial institutions. Check out that video, because I'm absolutely sure it will make what I'm explaining much clearer.
Let's understand this through an analogy. Suppose we discover that a neighborhood was built on a riverbed and that the worst storm in 30 or 50 years is approaching. This storm will cause the river, which is currently dry and allowed the construction of those houses and that neighborhood, to fill with water again. When this happens, it will sweep away the neighborhood and all its houses.
In this scenario, let's imagine we don't own any of the houses built in that neighborhood on the riverbed. But even though we don't own them, we start buying all-risk insurance for each of these houses: insurance against weather events, against earthquakes, against the collapse of the houses, and so on. Then, when the event occurs and the river sweeps the houses away, we collect on all the insurance policies we've purchased.
In this case, what Bill Ackman did was buy insurance for all his investments, and he did own those houses. So even though his houses were also damaged, like the rest of the investments held by other investors in the market, he had insurance to protect his holdings. When his investments fell, he activated credit protection operations through these derivative instruments, the credit default swaps, or CDS.
In this way, these insurance policies, which cost him only around $27 million, allowed him to generate profits of approximately $2.6 billion. Bill Ackman says that his portfolio has been hurt by the current stock market downturn, like everyone else's, but that the profits generated by his hedges compensated for the losses.
What he is doing now is using this liquidity to buy stocks that, from his point of view, represent a great opportunity in terms of price, and he expects them to appreciate significantly in the future. This is what Bill Ackman did. Many operators and traders also did something similar during the 2008 financial crisis, buying mortgage insurance that, after analysis, they believed was worthless. Then, when time put everyone in their place and the price of those mortgages approached zero, all they had to do was collect on their insurance, and that's how they filled their pockets.
Bill Ackman has recently received a lot of criticism because people say he has benefited while others have been harmed, but the reality is that he is not to blame, nor was he the one who caused the coronavirus. Furthermore, he has publicly stated, every time he has had the chance, that the only way to fight this virus is by closing the economy, which means putting everyone in quarantine to prevent infections and stop the situation from getting worse. He has always said this, but according to him, he did not do it to create chaos or panic; it was simply his perception as a citizen.
From an investment perspective, he did what I, and I think anyone else in his position, would have done upon discovering a phenomenon that could potentially harm you and your clients. The normal thing is to do everything necessary to protect your investments and your clients' investments. In this case, he bought insurance for his investments.
I hope this video has been understandable, because it tries to explain a type of operation in a very simple way. In truth, it is complex, because credit default swaps are more complicated than, for example, stock options, which would have been another instrument that Bill Ackman, or any of us, could have used to protect ourselves if the price of our investments fell and caused significant losses.
Anyway, I hope this has been clear and helps you understand a little more about how markets work and what drives upward and downward movements at any given time. For those interested, you can find Bill Ackman's company, Pershing Square, as a publicly traded entity. As you can see, its share price has also been heavily affected by the coronavirus. However, after that, with the strong profits generated by his bets, the market has rewarded him. This is a rapid, sharp upward move, and of course, any of us can buy his shares on the stock market.
As always, if you find this video valuable, if you're learning, if I'm contributing to your knowledge, remember to give us a thumbs up, share this information on your social networks, and subscribe to our channel if you haven't already. I also suggest that if you want to further improve your knowledge, you sharpen the way you make decisions and how you calculate risk when making them. If this is your situation and you think you can learn more with me, I invite you to take our seminar, "How to Invest in the Stock Market for Non-Experts." I've left a link below this video with all the details.
If you have any questions, write to us at [email protected]. Thank you very much for your attention. See you in the next chapter. Until next time.
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