저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄 결론: 2023년 10월 기준 비트코인 28,000달러, 블랙록의 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인 가능성이 높아 보이며 이 경우 수요가 공급을 크게 초과해 장기적으로 고가 상승 가능성이 있다는 주장. 블랙록 ETF 승인 전망: 블랙록은 세계 최대 자산운용사이며 정치적 관계가 강해 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인 가능성이 크다고 봄. 그레이스케일, 피델리티, 인베스코, 뱅가드 등 다른 신청도 있었음. 뉴스 사례: 최근 SEC 승인 허위 뉴스로 비트코인이 7,000달러대에서 30,000달러까지 급등했다가 허위로 드러나 조정됐음. 조정 후에도 차트는 강세로 평가. 수요 근거: 허위 뉴스에도 드러난 투자 수요가 크다고 봄. 기술적 불안(지갑, 해킹, 사기)과 익숙하지 않은 절차 때문에 기관·일반 투자자가 망설였으나 ETF로 이 장벽이 낮아질 수 있음. 수량 계산: 미국 백만장자 5,500만 명, 전 세계 약 3,000만 명(발언은 3억 명으로 언급). 비트코인 총량 2,100만 개로 백만장자 1인당 1개만 사도 부족하다고 주장. 수량 계산의 전제(백만장자 수)는 발언 내 수치 오류 가능성 있음(전 세계 백만장자는 약 3,000만 명 수준으로 알려짐). 가격 목표: 현재 28,000달러에서 50,000, 100,000, 200,000, 500,000, 100만, 1,500만 달러까지 상승 가능성을 언급. 기간은 명시하지 않은 장기 전망. 투자 원칙: 유행이나 뉴스가 아니라 이해하는 자산, 자신의 위험 성향과 능력 범위(competence circle)에 맞는 투자만 하라고 강조. 리스크: 발언자는 기술적 위험과 제도권 편입에 따른 자율성 상실 문제를 언급했으나 가격 하락 리스크는 구체적으로 다루지 않음. 출연자 전망: 장기 강세 관점, 1~3개월 단기 방향성은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin trading at a million dollars— is that really possible, especially considering that at the time of recording this video, it's trading at $28,000 per unit? What we're going to explain next are the real possibilities for this to happen and what investment vehicle would be best to use to gain the necessary exposure to benefit from a situation like this.
It will be quite interesting. Let's begin. At that moment, it seems quite likely that the ETF proposed by BlackRock, made up of bitcoins bought outright—that is, not synthetic ETFs, but ETFs with real bitcoins—at that moment, it's quite likely that this ETF proposed by BlackRock, which needs SEC approval to be constructed and marketed, will be accepted or approved by the SEC.
Who is BlackRock, many will ask, especially if they are just starting out in investing and the financial world. BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager. What is an asset manager? Those who, for example, develop and create investment vehicles so that individual and institutional investors can Channeling their liquidity into financial markets, in the case of BlackRock, they are the largest issuers of ETFs, which are exchange-traded funds that perform like stocks or any other financial asset that fluctuates in the markets and that one can buy and sell at any time.
They are also one of the major promoters of investment funds, especially passive or indexed investments, as well as active management. BlackRock leads in global asset management, followed by Vanguard, then I believe State Street, then Invesco, if my memory serves me right, then Fidelity, and there are a few others.
But the leader in this industry, the one managing the largest volume of assets, is BlackRock. Over the years, BlackRock has cultivated and built political connections not only in Washington, D.C., but also long-term relationships in various countries around the world. For this reason, I believe it is quite possible that BlackRock's request to create a spot Bitcoin ETF will be accepted, despite previous requests like Grey Skyle's.
Or like Fidelity Wi Invesco's, or even Vanguard's requests to create ETFs of this style, despite BlackRock denying theirs. So, there's a possibility that their request will be accepted. And in fact, if we look at a Bitcoin chart at the time of recording this video, which is October 18th, that chart for Bitcoin is bullish across multiple timeframes.
In fact, last Tuesday the 17th or Monday the 16th, I do n't remember exactly, a news story came out that turned out to be false, according to which the SEC had already approved BlackRock's application to create an ETF. What happened that day when the news broke, which ultimately proved to be false, is that the price of Bitcoin jumped from a little over $7,000 to $30,000.
It was a huge jump upwards, but when it became known that the news was fake, it pulled back from $30,000 to $8,000 or even $ 27,500. But the fact is that even with this pullback, it jumped upwards again—a vertical and rapid upward movement. And then a pullback to around 27,500 and 28,000. Despite the pullback because the news turned out to be fake, the chart is bullish; the chart is a buy auction.
But what's striking here is that this fake news revealed the appetite that many investors—we can call them individual or institutional investors— have to invest in Bitcoin. The only thing holding many of them back from investing large sums of money is the technology, or not feeling comfortable with how they would have to gain exposure to Bitcoin right now, through cold wallets, hot wallets, or brokers with no or bad reputations.
What many potential investors have associated with the crypto world for some years now is scams, theft, and hacking. Most investors are not familiar with this technology, the terminology, the procedures, or how transactions are carried out. Investors are people who want to invest in the traditional way, through traditional stock market intermediaries such as asset managers, brokers, or even investment banks.
Many are willing to invest a lot of money, but only if they find investment vehicles they are familiar with and can sleep soundly at night. This isn't inherently objectionable; I understand the criticism because what Bitcoin allows is independence, or rather, it allows one to escape the system, so that part of our wealth isn't in the clutches of, or exposed to, the big brother called the state, which could expropriate or steal from us at any moment.
Bitcoin is really what lies behind its existence: creating the real possibility of being outside the system. But logically, if I have exposure to Bitcoin through investment instruments managed or administered by brokers or traditional asset managers, then at that moment, despite having exposure to Bitcoin, I will be inside the system.
And then the original idea, which was to be outside the system, outside the clutches of the state, well, that original idea will have been lost, at least. For those who do it this way, I understand that many criticize this, but it's not something to criticize because everyone is free to manage their fears in the best way possible.
The fact is that if this ETF for BlackRock is finally authorized, I believe it will be, just like many other requests that were denied, such as Vesco, Fidelity, Vanguard, State Street, and a bunch of other fund managers. If the BlackRock one is authorized, the other requests that meet the quality and structure standards proposed by BlackRock will also have to be accepted, because otherwise it will be seen as a game of favors or corruption within the SEC, which is the stock market regulator in the United States.
And if all these ETFs are authorized, they will become investment vehicles that investors can use to enter the crypto world en masse, especially Bitcoin. And here I want to do the following calculations with you, and if I 'm wrong, please correct me in the comments, and if possible, respectfully, as everything here is done in good faith.
In the United States, there are 55 million millionaires. Who is a millionaire? Someone who has as With a minimum of $1 million, in the United States there are 55 million millionaires who can have $1 million, $2 million, $5 million, $10 million, $ 100 million, $1 billion, or even $100 billion. In total, there are 55 million millionaires worldwide.
There are approximately 300 million millionaires worldwide, who, like those in the United States, are private individuals with a minimum of $1 million, but who can also have $10 million, $20 million, $50 million, $ 100 million, or $1 billion. How many bitcoins can be generated according to the creation algorithm?
Approximately 21 million bitcoins. 21 million bitcoins wouldn't even be enough if all the millionaires in the United States wanted to buy a single bitcoin. If each of the 55 million millionaires in the United States wanted to buy a single bitcoin, the number of bitcoins that can be created would n't be enough to meet the demand in the United States alone.
And if we talk about the entire world, which is more or less... There are around 300 million millionaires, so logically, there wouldn't be enough bitcoins. But I'm using this example assuming each millionaire wants to buy just one bitcoin. I'm not referring to a millionaire who wants to buy 1,000 bitcoins, or 500 bitcoins, or 50,000 bitcoins.
There aren't enough bitcoins for all the millionaires in the world, but I'm only talking about millionaires. What about people with small amounts of capital who might want to buy a single bitcoin, or half a bitcoin, or two bitcoins, etc.? If we include everyone who wants to invest in bitcoin, there wouldn't be enough bitcoins.
What this means is that if the possibility of having exposure to bitcoin is opened up through investment vehicles that most investors understand or are familiar with, or that allow them to feel calm and secure while invested and exposed, if these types of investment vehicles are accepted and authorized, investors could enter.
I'm not saying that it will ultimately be like that; my perception is that it will be. Many investors will be able to enter in a way that... The crypto world has seen massive growth, and since there are so few bitcoins, as their creation has a limited number of 21 million units, the possibility exists that Bitcoin, which is currently trading at 28,000, could rise to 50,000, 100,000, 200,000, 500,000, even 1 million or 15 million dollars.
I believe that possibility exists. What I tell people is, don't take my word for it, do your own analysis, do your own research, but above all, you should never invest because so-and-so said so, or because you saw it on the news, or because that investment is trending, or because that asset is rising a lot.
You should only invest, first, in things you understand, not superficially, but deeply; second, because that investment, that asset, aligns with your risk profile, your age, your character, your temperament, but above all, that asset or that investment aligns with your preferences and falls within what is called your circle of competence, what you understand.
We understand the risks, and we also understand the potential. We don't invest because of trends or because the latest guru says so, but because it's within our area of expertise, because it aligns with our preferences, and because we clearly understand what's happening in terms of risks and opportunities.
If you have any questions, I'm at your service. You can leave them here in the comments, and I'll be attentive to answering them, especially the day after this video is published. If you found it valuable, please share it on your social networks. Subscribe to our channel if you haven't already, and you'll help us grow this community and help me spread financial education.
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