저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
장기금리 급등이 시장의 새로운 우려로 부상하고 8월 저거래량이 변동성을 키울 수 있다. 국채 단기발행 비중 확대에 따른 재정우위(fiscal dominance) 우려로 달러 약세·실질금리 하락이 예상되며 비트코인이 이에 대한 헤지 수단이다. 공매도 청산으로 BTC 72,000달러 회복, 2026년 10만달러, 2029년 50만달러 장기 전망 제시.
다듬은 글
So, if you ask me what is the most important thing to watch this month, it is the fact that yields are rising rapidly as this creates a new wall of concern for the markets. We are now in the midst of August, which means less trading volume. Lower trading volume means that markets can make sharp moves.
So you have to remember that there have been huge changes in the bond markets that... Well, so far all of this movement is short covering. You know, $3 billion in short positions have been liquidated in the last 24 hours . This is an absolute record. So it seems like if real money comes in , maybe we'll go higher.
Nothing moves in a straight line. I told you that 100 thousand would be next year. I still believe in it. And then, in the long term, by 2029, we could reach 500,000 if the cycle unfolds as usual. Bitcoin may be entering a critical new phase, and Tom Lee and Matthew Siegel believe the latest rally may be driven by something much bigger than crypto regulation.
Treasury policy, fiscal dominance, a weaker dollar, and Bitcoin’s late-cycle setup make for a potent combination. With the $100,000 mark back in focus and the potential path leading to much higher levels, is Bitcoin preparing for its next explosive move? . And, as you know, it's been a very difficult year, but everything is going as we expected.
So I want to first give you an update on macroeconomics. And then we'll talk about our top five ideas based on our core list of stocks. So, if you ask me what is the most important thing to watch this month, it is the fact that yields are rising rapidly as this creates a new wall of concern for the markets.
We are now in the midst of August, which means less trading volume. Lower trading volume means that markets can make sharp moves. So, you have to keep in mind that there have been huge changes in the bond markets over the past few weeks. The USA is not the only market. The yield on 30- year US bonds is reaching 30-year highs, i.e.
highs in three decades. In Germany, 15-year highs. Japan—30- year highs. Great Britain and France are at multi-year highs. So, there has been a sharp increase in long-term profitability everywhere in the world. This doesn't always happen for bad reasons, but let me list the potential negative factors.
You may remember earlier this year, this was our stylized map of how we thought the market would evolve. That we will start with growth at the beginning of the year. As you know, people have repeatedly become pessimistic. They had many reasons, whether it was the war in Iran or the apocalypse due to AI.
They kept saying this would be the peak of the market, but as you know, we were of the view that the market would go at least to 7,300. Later we were talking about 7,700, but now we expect 8,000. So we have been pretty adamant and consistent in our view that we have to get to 8,000 first. One thing I want to point out is that when people talk about midterm elections, they like political deadlock, and so markets tend to do better when the House and Senate are controlled by different parties, or the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties.
And that was true in the past. I think we've been pretty much deadlocked for the last three administrations, partly because of the filibuster. If you're not familiar with the filibuster: for the Senate to pass anything, it needs 60 votes from senators to make the decision resistant to a veto or blockage.
And so it's a stalemate, since no one has 60 seats in the Senate. But with cryptocurrency, I think it's fine, which was our prediction, because you're just going to get the " Clarity Act," which was supposed to create a national authority to regulate all crypto, but now it's all going to be done through regulation, like it is now, and through the existing courts.
So cryptocurrency is moving forward despite everything, but I think we'll talk about it later this year, because there are also possible surprises. Here's something we have n't talked about in a long time. Cryptocurrency is growing again. Bitcoin is back above $72,000 after yesterday's surprise Treasury statement supported risk assets.
So, underlying assets. In any case, this is not the only catalyst for cryptocurrency. I'm pretty optimistic that it will get over 60 votes, and I think both sides got about 90% of what they wanted, and in any deal I've been a part of, that's something worth agreeing to. Well, the prediction markets do not share his optimism.
Kalshi estimates only a 23% chance that the Clarity bill will become law by the end of the year. We are in touch with Matthew Siegel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck Funds. Matthew , nice to see you. What odds would you give? You were quite foresighted. I remember when Bitcoin started to rise again, you advised us to expect some growth, but what do you say about Clarity at this point?
I don't think this movement is related to Clarity. I believe that everything depends on the actions of the Ministry of Finance, which are rekindling fears about fiscal dominance. I heard your previous guest say that Treasury bills are a normal percentage of market debt. I disagree with this. The Ministry of Finance's own advisory committee recommends keeping treasury bills at 15–20% of market debt.
We have 23% and the figure is growing. So, since the Ministry of Finance finances most of the debt through short-term obligations, this immediately hits the fiscal balance. This makes maintaining high rates increasingly expensive. Something has to take that pressure. The market suggests it 's the dollar, and over the past 15 years, the only consistent correlation Bitcoin has shown is a negative correlation with the dollar.
So we think that ultimately this means lower real rates, a structurally weaker dollar, and Bitcoin is one of the best hedges for such dynamics. So I don't think the market is paying attention to Clarity right now. Naturally, the question every investor wants to know the answer to is where Bitcoin will go next.
The discussion points to $100,000 as an important future benchmark. However, Siegel does not claim that Bitcoin will necessarily reach this level immediately. He believes that $100,000 could be a target for next year, not something investors should expect to hit instantly. I think you've nailed it. You perfectly formulated the reason for the movement we have been observing for the last day and a half after the Ministry of Finance's statement.
Everyone else says that people like me are exaggerating. I do n't think so. I believe their actions are of great importance. We may disagree about whether this is expressed in bitcoins, or gold, or something else. We should also show the dollar. Maybe the DXY index. And that's why it's worth looking at Japan and what's happening there.
They limit bets, so people bet on the currency going down. They push her down. I don't want the same thing to happen here. But you are positioning yourself for exactly that. I mean, you know what I mean. We...we kind of feel like this is the path we're taking. Is this true? Yes, I think it's easier for politicians to deal with a slightly weaker dollar and slightly higher inflation than a catastrophic budget deficit.
So, yes, I believe it limits the bets, and that's where Bitcoin shines. And the interesting thing about Bitcoin is that this happened at a time when, given the four-year cycle, Bitcoin was already looking like it was in the late stages of a correction. The average bear market lasts about 12 months. We have been in this state for 10 months now .
We look at a lot of metrics related to the average cost base and what the derivatives market is saying. So, we have these 12 indicators of surrender. They have all given a positive signal in the last 3 months. Eight out of 12 are positive. Volatility was now at a record low. So it was, it was a compressed spring.
And I think the price will go up. So where will she go soon? We're short on time, but most people are wondering: 100,000 now or later in the future? I mean, can it go higher? But seriously, what do you think the next move will be? How high? When? Well, for now, this movement is just closing short positions.
You know, $3 billion in short positions have been liquidated in the last 24 hours . This is an absolute record for all time. So, you know, it seems like if real money comes in , maybe we'll go higher. Nothing moves in a straight line. I told you guys that 100 thousand would be next year. I still believe in it.
And then, you know, in the long term, in 2029, let's say, we could reach 500,000 if the cycle plays out as usual. Tom Lee's discussion presents a market environment full of contradictions. On the one hand, long-term bond yields are rising in major global economies, creating a serious new wall of anxiety for stocks.
Higher rates could pressure valuations and increase funding costs, while unusually low liquidity in August could exacerbate volatility. On the other hand, the stock market has repeatedly demonstrated resilience. Mhm.
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