저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
펜타곤의 AI·자율성 예산 134억달러(FY2026) 배정을 근거로 국방 AI 사이클이 본격화됐다고 주장. 팔란티어(Maven, 정부매출 66%↑), 오라클(RPO 5530억달러, IaaS 84%↑), 마이크로소프트(Azure 39%↑, 백로그 6250억달러)를 하락장에서 저평가된 수혜주로 제시. 최근 하락을 역사적 진입 기회로 규정.
다듬은 글
The era of experimentation in defense technology is officially dead. As we head into fiscal year 2026, the Pentagon isn't just flirting with artificial intelligence, it is hardwiring it into the core of national security. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities is calling this the generational spending cycle.
And the numbers backing his thesis are staggering. The FY 2026 OMB budget proposal has unveiled a record 13.4 billion-dollar allocation specifically for AI and autonomy. The first time in US history that these capabilities have their own dedicated structural budget line. This isn't just a line item.
It's a declaration of war on the old defense model. Despite a recent ceasefire in the Iran conflict providing a brief relief recovery, the structural damage to the tech sector remains visible. We are looking at a historic entry point. One of the three stocks Ives named is currently down over 50% from its 52-week high, while the other two are still reeling, down more than 30% from their peaks.
With global defense expenditure projected to exceed 2.6 trillion dollars in 2026, the intersection of military necessity and AI is creating a whole new warfare paradigm. Ives argues we are moving from a 650 billion-dollar big tech capex environment into a decade-long buildout. For the active investor, the model wars are over and the execution era has begun.
Today, we are breaking down the three unstoppable titans sitting at the top of this defense integration stack. Let's begin with the company Dan Ives calls the first mover and the definitive operating system for the modern battlefield. Palantir Technologies, ticker symbol PLTR. While the stock has seen a massive valuation reset, sitting nearly 31% below its 52-week high, the fundamental story has never been stronger.
Palantir has spent two decades embedding its Gotham platform into the most sensitive defense workflows on the planet. This isn't just a software vendor, it is a structural pillar of national security. The numbers coming out of their recent reports prove that the thesis is moving from potential to massive realized scale.
In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, US government revenue surged 66% year-over-year, while total revenue hit 1.4 billion dollars. This acceleration is being driven by an N of 1 position, where Palantir stands alone in providing the operational leverage necessary to make AI actually work in the field.
The most explosive catalyst for Palantir right now is the Maven smart system, which has officially transitioned to a Pentagon program of record. This moves Palantir from experimental contracts into permanent multi-year budget lines. Maven is essentially the brain of modern combat, fusing data from satellites and drones to identify targets at an impossible rate.
In recent operations, this system allowed for the identification of thousands of targets in mere hours, a task that used to take human analysts days. This shift is why the Department of Defense expanded Palantir's contract limit to 1.3 billion dollars. Looking toward fiscal year 2026, the guidance is incredibly bullish, with revenue projected to reach nearly 7.2 billion dollars.
What truly sets Palantir apart is the sheer efficiency of its business model. The company is operating with adjusted free cash flow margins exceeding 50%. While retail sentiment has turned cautious during the recent pullback, the underlying fundamentals suggest a level of stickiness that is rare in tech.
As the primary orchestrator of the defense AI stack, Palantir isn't just participating in this generational cycle. It is leading it. While Palantir provides the operational brain, that brain requires a massive secure physical nervous system to function, which brings us to Oracle, ticker symbol ORCL.
The stock that has been hit hardest, currently down over 58% from its high. Oracle is the infrastructure giant that Ives insists is building the literal plumbing for the defense AI era. While other hyperscalers are focused on consumer tools, Oracle has positioned its cloud infrastructure as the essential utility for high-level military training and inference.
The numbers here are historic. In its most recent quarter, Oracle's IaaS revenue skyrocketed by 84% year-over-year. Even more staggering is the company's remaining performance obligations, which have ballooned 325% to a record 553 billion dollars. This backlog provides a level of multi-year revenue visibility that is almost unheard of, signaling that demand for Oracle's plumbing is far outstripping current supply.
The strategic brilliance of Oracle's model lies in its sovereign cloud solution. In a whole new warfare paradigm, defense agencies require localized data residency and extreme security, barriers that make Oracle a natural partner for the Pentagon. This isn't just about servers, it's about a massive 5 designed to secure its lead in data center capacity.
Oracle is even diversifying its silicon stack, rolling out 50,000 AMD accelerators to give military customers a viable alternative for AI workloads while maintaining its deep partnership with Nvidia. This dual threat of infrastructure and specialized hardware is why Ives sees them as an immovable force.
What makes the investment case compelling is the clarity disconnect between Oracle's growth and its current price. After the sharp slide in early 2026, the stock is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, a fraction of the multiples seen in the software layer. Beyond infrastructure, Oracle is using AI to reinvent its own efficiency, with plans to automate up to 18% of its workforce through internal AI agents.
This proves to customers that their technology is a proven tool for operational leverage. With a management goal of 90 billion dollars in revenue by fiscal 2027, Oracle is scaling into a powerhouse that bridges the gap between massive capital investment and long-term high-margin recurring revenue. Even with the software and plumbing in place, a cycle of this magnitude requires a partner with the deepest possible roots in the Pentagon, and that is Microsoft, MSFT.
Now trading 32% below its 52-week peak. Microsoft brings the enterprise relationships and the multi-decade contract history that make it the undisputed backbone of the defense integration stack. If Palantir is the software and Oracle is the plumbing, Microsoft is the massive enterprise giant that bridges the gap between private sector innovation and the military's specific mission requirements.
While the stock has seen a temporary valuation reset in 2026, the underlying fundamentals suggest a business that is essentially becoming the vertically integrated empire of the AI revolution. The scale of Microsoft's commitment is staggering. Azure recently reported a 39% year-over-year growth rate fueled by an AI business that CEO Satya Nadella notes is already larger than some of their biggest legacy franchises.
But the real alpha for defense investors lies in Microsoft's 625 billion-dollar contract backlog, a 110% surge that is increasingly dominated by governments. As the Pentagon shifts its trillion-dollar budget toward AI-driven readiness, Microsoft's history with contracts like the JWCC makes them the natural choice for large-scale deployments.
They aren't just selling chat boxes, they are rolling out the Frontier Suite, a new agentic AI control plane that allows the military to automate complex multi-step workflows across its entire digital infrastructure. What's particularly compelling is the strategic pivot Microsoft has made to diversify its AI portfolio.
Beyond its 27% stake in OpenAI, Microsoft is launching its own My Foundational Models and integrating Anthropic's Claude for specialized reasoning. This multi-model approach ensures that no matter which AI architecture wins the model wars, Microsoft's infrastructure captures the revenue. Furthermore, by developing custom silicon like the Maia 100 accelerators, they are protecting their long-term margins.
Despite a massive 50 billion-dollar capex plan, Microsoft is currently trading at a forward P/E of roughly 24, actually lower than peers like Alphabet and Amazon. It remains the safe haven giant of the defense AI super cycle. The thesis laid out by Dan Ives isn't about chasing hype, it's about following the largest capital migration in history.
When the OMB moves 13.4 billion dollars into a dedicated AI budget, the winners aren't found in speculative startups. They are found in the integration stack, Palantir's tactical software, Oracle's sovereign infrastructure, and Microsoft's enterprise backbone. Despite the recent ceasefire relief, these stocks are still trading at deep discounts to their potential.
This structural cycle is now an unstoppable force backed by the full weight of the US Treasury. The cycle has begun. The only question is, are you positioned to ride it?
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