저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아 2분기 실적 발표(8/28)를 앞두고 변동성이 클 것이라 전망. 매출 $28B 가이던스와 74.8~75.5% 마진을 기준으로, 매출이 $29B 이상이면 주가 상승 여지, 3분기 가이던스가 약 $30B 이하이면 우려 요인이 될 수 있다고 설명. 고객 집중도(상위 5개사 약 45%), Blackwell 출하 지연 여부를 핵심 확인 포인트로 제시. 실적 직후 성급한 매매보다 충분히 검토 후 결정할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
Nvidia will report quarterly Financial results on Wednesday August 28th the event is likely to cause the entire stock market to shake movement volatility is almost a certainty the direction up or down that's still a question mark nvidia's stock price has already increased by 157% in 2024 and its success has fueled gains in nearly all AI related stocks a poor quarterly report from Nvidia or a less than enthusiastic outlook for the next quarter could spark a sell-off in not only nvidia's stock but also the rest of the market suffice it to say there's a lot writing on nvidia's earnings results I wanted to make a video to prepare investors for this event volatile moments like these increase the likelihood that you make a decision on buying or selling before taking the time needed to assess the situation properly I'll highlight what to look for when Nvidia reports quarterly results including what Revenue number will be good what profit margins will lift the stock price what forecast to expect and what qualitative factors to focus on mentioned at the top of the video that Nvidia stock prices up 157% year to date and you'll notice these marks circles with e highlighted here on this chart those are earnings releases and you'll notice that following the two earning releases year-to date in 2024 Nvidia stock price has increased so the earnings releases in this year have been a catalyst to lift Nvidia stock price higher and you'll notice that in the first release earlier in the year stock price elevated and then kind of was consolidating all the way until the company reported another quarterly earnings release and again the stock price jumped and Consolidated until now we're looking forward to Wednesday after the markets close the company's going to announce earnings again could it be another event that lifts Nvidia stock price higher it could be it could very well be however the direction of the move up or down is still uncertain just because the two previous reports in 2024 have lifted Nvidia stock price higher doesn't mean this report needs to report needs to increase Nvidia stock price higher as well now looking at the numbers nvidia's management has told investors to look out for revenue of $28 billion and gross profit margins between 74.8% and 75.5% now if Nvidia reports Revenue slightly ahead of this number or slightly below this number it may not be a big move in the stock price up or down but if the revenue number is above the error rate which is plus or minus 2% then you could have implications up or down now if nvidia's revenue is 2% ahead of what it forecasted that could cause Nvidia stock price to lift higher however there's already a lot of enthusiasm built into nvidia's upcoming earnings release where the whisper numbers around Wall Street are that it's going to beat this Revenue numbers handedly so in order for the stock price to move higher based on a better than expected Revenue number the revenue would have to be meaningfully higher I'm thinking 29 billion or more in order to cause an enthusiastic lift in the stock price just from the second quarter Revenue number similar story with gross profit margins management forecasting between 74.8 and 75 a half those are very strong profit margin numbers and much better than what the company reported last year speaking of which last year in the second quarter of its fiscal year 2024 Nvidia reported 13.5 billion in Revenue with gross profit margin of 70% so if the company reports 28 billion in Revenue as its forecast ing that would be a more than 100% increase from last year's Q2 revenue and the profit margin would be 5 basis points 5 percentage points higher than the 70% last year now 70% gross profit margin is already excellent and Nvidia is building on that actually increasing their gross profit margin this is one of the reasons why nvidia's stock price has soared the way it has is because it's not only Revenue that's growing for NVIDIA it's profit margins and cash flow that are also increasing at a phenomenal rate so not only is NVIDIA selling more product but it's selling more product at much higher profit margins and there seems to be no end to this right they continue forecasting growth of over 100% even though the company's already so large generating over 20 billion in quarterly Revenue they're still forecasting 100% Revenue growth numbers so now we get to the forecast or the guidance to look for from Nvidia and I think this number will have a wider implication on nvidia's stock price than the revenue number from the current quarter that's because the revenue number from the current quarter is all but expected already based on a lot of data that's coming from other companies that Nvidia is supporting and so Wall Street the stock market has already baked into the company's valuation the current Revenue number what's not baked in just yet is the forecast for Q3 of 2025 when Nvidia reports quarterly results for its second quarter of 2025 it's very likely to give a forecast for its third quarter of 2025 that's been nvidia's practice and that's been something they've done for a long time now and so if they don't give that guidance for the third quarter if they say something like well our business has become so volatile so uncertain that we can't predict with a large enough uh percentage likelihood our revenue for the next quarter that would be alarming to stock market investors for the company to all of a sudden not provide guidance for the next quarter would be a shock and that will be a reason for the stock price to fall however I don't expect that to happen that's just something to keep in mind that could happen right I like to look out for all of the potential downsides when I'm considering an investment and that's one of the potential downsides that could happen in this quarter although I don't think it's a anything uh of a likelihood that should alarm investors going in now looking at the actual numbers last year in Q3 2024 Nvidia reported 18 billion in Revenue with 74% gross profit margins and this 18 18 billion in Revenue last year Q3 that was up 206% year-over-year so when the company forecasts revenue for the next quarter it's going to be in my opinion the first quarter of Nvidia forecasting Revenue growth below 100% in several quarters right I don't think Nvidia is going to forecast revenue of 36 billion for the next quarter for Q3 2025 in fact if I was an Nvidia stock investor looking at these quarterly outlooks I would be looking for something in the range of 30 or 31 billion as the forecast for next quarter an incremental $2 billion increase is what we've seen so far in 2024 and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what we see again for Q3 so if the company does indeed report 28 billion in revenue for Q2 and forecasts 30 billion in revenue for Q3 with similar gross profit margins around 75% I think that would be the neutral result from Nvidia meaning anything above that would cause the stock price to increase anything below that could cause the stock price to decrease and it's already a deceleration of the revenue growth rate so anything below 30 billion of a forecast I think will alarm some Nvidia stock investors and some Wall Street analyst to perhaps downgrade Nvidia stock because the valuation is incorporating excellent phenomenal growth rates going forward and so if that growth rate were to show signs of slowing down too quickly that could be alarming now everyone expects nvidia's growth rates to slow down the company's not going to grow at north of 100% Revenue every quarter for several years this is just the initial surge in Revenue as the company it serves as the companies it serves are spending tens of billions of dollars to increase their AI capabilities and then and perhaps in four quarters or maybe in six quarters or eight quarters and vidia's revenue growth rate is likely to slow down considerably uh I wouldn't be surprised if it goes below 40% or 30% Revenue growth in 8 quarter time or in six quarter time because the revenue will have jumped by so much already the law of large numbers starts to take hold and you can't continue to grow off of such a large base at those rates of growth anymore that's to be expected that's not any reason to panic and sell Nvidia stock I highlighted nvidia's buyers of its products and now we'll get into the qualitative aspects of the company's quarterly earnings release to look out for one of the things for NVIDIA is a concentration risk where the vast majority of its products are bought by relatively few companies here you have 1 2 3 four five companies Microsoft meta Tesla alphabet and Amazon that purchase more than 45% of nvidia's products so just five companies account for 45% of nvidia's Revenue that's called a high concentration risk if one of these companies especially if Microsoft or meta platforms reduces purchases of nvidia's chips that could quickly slow down nvidia's growth so one of the qualitative factors or two qualitative factors relating to this I'm looking for in nvidia's quarterly earnings release is is demand from these large hyperscalers continuing robustly Nvidia has pretty good visibility into its future demand for its products because it's having conversations with these large companies continuously so it knows what demand from them is going to look like in four quarters and in eight quarters it pretty much knows so I want to hear commentary from management reassuring investors that these companies continue to spend tens of billions of dollars on nvidia's products that's one thing I'm looking for here the second thing I'm looking for is a broadening out of demand for nvidia's products is there a broadening out of nvidia's demand for its products are there still strong demand in the marketplace Beyond these large hyperscalers should they decrease their purchases are there other companies that Nvidia can serve nvidia's talked about having a backlog in that there's so much demand for its product that it doesn't have enough Supply is that still true I want to hear that from management commentary following the earnings release okay the other big thing I want to look for qualitatively is the roll out of Blackwell so Blackwell is nvidia's latest generation technology that was expected to roll out in the second half of this year Q3 Q4 calendar year but there have been some rumors that there's going to be delays but some analyst said Nvidia could offset much of the delay in Blackwell chips by substituting these orders with its prior generation Hopper chips the hopper family of processors are not as profitable or lucrative as Blackwell but it's sufficient for most AI related applications so I want to hear management talk about the roll out of Blackwell how that's going are their supply constraints is it going as expected or are the rumors true and are there headwinds regarding Blackwell and how soon are they going to be resolved have they already been resolved I want to hear more from management regarding this if management comes out and gives the okay and says these rumors are not true that things are going as expected in fact things are going better than expected we're rolling out and demand is stronger than expected and we've increased our manufacturing orders because demand is so strong that signal from Nvidia could be another reason for a big jump in the company's share price so those are big items to look out for from Nvidia and its quarterly earnings release and if they should be on the downside of any of those things that I've discussed here that will likely cause a big drop in nvidia's stock price and subsequently a big drop in the stock market overall I implore investors not to move quickly following the company's earnings release and panic and sell quickly after the numbers come out give your yourself time to digest the results go through all of the information that's come out you're not likely to be faster than someone else in selling or buying Nvidia stock so you do have the ability to take your time and digest the results before making a decision which is the route I would encourage all of you to take of course I will have several videos analyzing envidia quarterly earnings results soon after the company releases those numbers
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