저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 조엘 그린블랫의 마법공식(Magic Formula) 투자법은 자본수익률과 이익수익률 두 지표로 우량·저평가주를 골라 30개 포트폴리오를 구성하는 간단한 전략으로, 장기 복리 효과가 크다는 취지의 책 소개 영상이다. [수익률 예시] 16년간 연평균 약 30.8%, 최저 -4%, 최고 79.9%를 가정할 때 1만 파운드가 약 100만 파운드로 성장한다고 설명. 수익을 인출하지 않고 재투자했을 때의 효과를 강조하며, 같은 기간 S&P500은 복리로 약 7만 3천 파운드 수준이라고 비교. [전략 원리] 자본수익률(세후이익/투하자본)로 품질을, 이익수익률(이익/주가)로 가치를 평가해 각각 순위를 매기고 두 순위를 합산한 점수가 낮은 상위 30개 종목에 투자. S&P500 기준 예시로 설명. [스크리닝 도구] 영상 제작자가 개인적으로 사용·추천한다는 Stockopedia(스톡 액스 피디아) 스캐너를 소개하며, 영상 링크와 추가 필터(모멘텀, EPS 성장률, 재무지표)를 언급. [성과 자료] 2011~2018년 차트에서 상위 10위 종목이 256% 상승해 FTSE All-Share 지수 68%를 상회했다고 제시하나, 중간에 큰 낙폭과 2년 연속 마이너스 구간이 있었음을 함께 보여줌. [투자 전략 관련 조언] 전략 수행 중 손실 구간의 인내가 필요하며, 상위 10개 등 보다 집중된 포트폴리오가 더 좋은 결과를 낼 수 있다고 언급. 세금 측면에서는 1년 기준 보유기간 규칙(손실 종목은 연말 이전 매도, 이익 종목은 1년 이후 매도)을 활용하라고 조언하되 거주 국가 세법에 따라 다르다고 단서를 달았다. [결론] 단순하고 검증된 전략이라 책 평점은 4점 이상 줄 만하며, 책 구매와 스크리닝 도구 병행을 권장. 구독·좋아요 요청으로 마무리.
다듬은 글
would you like to achieve these percentages return an average of over 30% per year for 16 years and turned 10,000 pounds into 1 million pounds over the same period in this video we show how Joel Greenblatt did exactly that in this animated video we present the little book that still beats the market by Joel Greenblatt Joel Greenblatt is an American academic hedge fund manager writer and value investor before we look at how Joel Greenblatt achieved such high returns let's look at the numbers to see how a 10,000 pound investment could have grown during the 16 years these are the annual returns the worst year showed a 4% loss and the best year was a return of seventy nine point nine percent the average for the period was 30.8% let's turn these percentages into an equity curve with a 10,000 pound starting balance we can see that the equity grew to almost 1 million pounds also noticed the exponential growth due to the power of compounding over time if the returns from the 10,000 pounds were taken out each year and not reinvested the profits would only have accrued to 55,000 pounds astonishingly less allowing the capital to grow is probably the most important lesson to take from this video how did the S&P 500 compare during this period a compounded return would have resulted in an end balance of just under 73,000 pounds after 16 years this is still over a seven hundred percent return during the period but hugely less than the 10,000 percent return Joel Greenblatt achieved so how did Joel Greenblatt get these excellent annual returns he created a value investing strategy called the magic formula the strategy targets both quality and value stocks using a ranking system the ranking system comprises of two ratios return on capital and earnings yield these ingredients combined have offered excellent results Joel Greenblatt aligns the strategy to his philosophy when he says buying cheap stocks at bargain prices is the secret to making lots of money okay so we have the two ratios that make up the magic formula how do we put these into a single measure to select qualifying stocks first we select the index of stocks for any given major exchange let's use the S&P 500 index as an example we then rank those companies on a scale of 1 to 500 based on their return on capital the company with the highest return on capital is placed at the top the same companies are then ranked according to their earnings yield and again the companies returning the highest yield is placed on the top finally both rankings are combined in this example we calculate a company ranked number one for return on capital but ranked 50th for earnings yield the calculation is simply 1 plus 50 giving a magic formula score of 51 the companies which are ranked the highest and therefore have the lowest score have the best combination of both the earnings yield and return on capital factors once all the 500 companies have been given a score the top 30 companies form a portfolio this is precisely how Joel Greenblatt produced the returns we saw earlier not only did this method beat the indexes overall but notice how the S&P 500 had three annual losses in a row totaling a negative forty three point one percent whereas this method had a positive seventy three point five percent over the same period the drawdown reduction and accompanied psychological benefits make this system very interesting indeed let us dig a bit deeper to determine why such a seemingly simple strategy is so effective firstly let's quickly look at the return on capital metric the return on capital calculation is a measure of the company's quality for example a quality company often suggests that the company has a deep moat usually through a unique product or business model which is difficult to duplicate you or a strong brand that would be difficult to derail in financial terms return on capital is calculated by dividing the after-tax profit by the value of invested capital the earnings yield tells us how much the business earns per year in relation to its share price it is therefore used as a measure of value let's imagine a company is worth 1 million pounds and it earns 100,000 pounds per year the earnings yield is 10% calculated as a hundred thousand pounds divided by 1 million pounds at this point you may be thinking is there an easy way to filter and rank such stocks well there is I personally use and recommend a website called stock ax pedia they offer an exceptional scanner for numerous strategies including the magic formula strategy let's take a look the magic formula scanner here shows the company Excel media as the highest ranked company with a combined score of 158 it would therefore take your first place in a portfolio of 30 stocks if we click on the company name here we are presented with a detailed stock report the report shows all key fundamental data including the magic formula shown here clicking on this link provides further detail on the magic formula score you can see here both the return on capital and earnings yield ranks that make up the combined score of 158 perhaps not for this review but you could filter stocks further based on other criteria that the stocker pedia services offer for example the momentum score the earnings per share growth rate or balance sheet metrics the options are endless and for those interested the link is below the video you so why is it that such a powerful strategy we're qualifying stocks can be filtered easily is not followed by big hedge funds and institutions the reason is because financial managers need to show performance every year and are quite often measured on a quarterly basis where is the magic formula strategy according to Joel Greenblatt should be considered a longer-term strategy on average for five months of the year the magic formula will underperform the market and would be frowned upon by the fund managers clients the bottom line is that the timeframe for the magic formula strategy is too narrow for fund managers despite the promise that profits will likely materialize in the long run although not taken from the original book we have managed to find a more up-to-date performance chart this shows the magic formula performance from 2011 to 2018 only this time we also include the top 10 top 15 and top 20 ranked stocks interestingly there seems to be a correlation between improved performance and the higher ranked stocks which could be worth further investigation during this seven and a half year period the top 10 ranked stocks increased by 256 percent against the footsie all share index of 68% adding further confirmation that the strategy offers excellent returns also to reinforce Joel Greenblatt's theory suggesting that the time scale is too long for a typical funds manager we can see here the strategy took a large drawdown before climbing higher clients of a fund would certainly not be happy especially considering the index took a less dramatic drop here year by year performance of the previous chart again groups by ranks notice the top 10 ranked stocks her two years of negative runs against the index of one negative year again despite these other years of excellent returns I'm not sure many fund managers would have held on to their jobs during this two year period Joel Greenblatt also advises taking advantage of tax laws to keep more of the profits in short this means selling stocks which have lost value before the end of a 12-month period but do the opposite for stocks that have increased in value therefore sell them after the 12-month period this rule obviously depends on your country of residence in the United States they have a lower tax rate for stocks held beyond one year so this selling strategy is likely to have some merit there that concludes our brief overview of Joel Greenblatt's book let's quickly summarize one the strategy returned exceptional results from a simple concept that included just one quality and value factor each scored by rank and then combined into a 30 stock portfolio - scanning for such stock does not need to be difficult if the right software is available 3 unlike a money manager the narrow time frame is not a constraint although some discipline will be required during periods of drawdown for a more consolidated portfolio of perhaps 10 stocks could yield better results 5 using the 12 months tax rule could be of benefit depending on the tax laws of your country due to the simplicity of this time-tested strategy demonstrated by Joel Greenblatt it would be difficult to score the book anything less than four stars purchasing the book for the finer detail and using the stock a PDA scanning tool could be a very potent combination thanks for listening please hit the like button subscribe and comment below on an e-book suggested for review you
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