저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제는 소비자·AI 투자·재정 부양(OBBBA)에 힘입어 예상보다 강하며, 기업 이익과 실적 추정치 상향이 이어진다고 주장. 임금-물가 악순환은 없고 생산성 향상이 핵심. AI는 고용을 순증시킬 것이며 최근 고용지표(실업률 4.3%, 실업 기간 감소)도 개선 중이라고 봄. 다만 유가 110달러 지속 시 인플레 부담 가능성은 질문으로 제기됨.
다듬은 글
The bull case on America is starting to sound like a faith-based religion. Rich consumers, unstoppable AI, and an economy that somehow wins no matter what Washington does. Yardeni's argument is bold, but critics will hear it as the kind of optimism people always justify right before they dismiss real risks.
Now, uh it's turned out to be gangbusters. Not only that, but the analysts are actually raising their estimates for the second, third, and fourth quarters. And the year as a whole, they're talking about something like 23%, which is a extraordinary increase in an economy that's been growing all along.
But I I think the key to all this is uh and I've been I've been saying this for some time that don't underestimate the resilience of the economy, the resilience of the consumer. And if that's continues to be the case, then the same goes for earnings. In the past, things have happened where, you know, it wasn't the wrong move to under- estimate the strength of of the consumer or the economy or businesses.
You haven't explained to me, you say don't underestimate it, you haven't explained to me why. And and you know what? I'm going to give you your answer for you. Please do. A, B, C, D, and E. It's E. It's all It's all the above. It's AI. It's It's the big beautiful bill. It It's the consumers. You know, we've got a lot of retiring baby boomers and they're rich.
They're they're rich. They're $89 trillion in net worth and a lot of them have paid off their mortgages. They're They're spending money. Why are corporations doing so well? Well, corporations' cash flows are at an all-time record high. Corporate profits are at an all-time record high. You cannot tell me why.
I I I think it's because it's the US economy is strong. And not only that, but the global economy is strong. I still want reasons. I It cuz it doesn't always It's not always like that. you know, I've been doing this for a while and kind of one of the things I've learned over the years is we we pay too much attention to Washington and sometimes we don't Really really give in spite of Washington because That's exactly it.
We've we've done remarkably well Despite Washington and I think the same thing can be said globally more and more Countries around the world you know entrepreneurs business people consumers are just Continuing to do what they want to do doesn't kill it If Washington you're saying in spite of so if they're not actually going out of their way to make it difficult for businesses Then the the US is going to flourish and Well I think clearly we've got a administration that's deregulating that's trying to stimulate the economy.
I mean the reality is under Biden a lot of money was spent to build infrastructure in manufacturing for semiconductors and now under the current administration we're seeing the same kind of push to you know for if nothing else for national security reasons to bring the supply chains back to the United States.
So it's all extremely stimulative. We also Have the big beautiful bill which is stimulative not just for the consumers with tax refunds but also with 100% appreciation. Right 100% appreciation. When does uh Input costs because of $110 Brent oil Let's say that goes on. Let's say it goes on for another 6 months.
Well I think one of the things that's different between now and what happened in 2022 when we had a big spike in inflation and a big spike in in in energy is we're not seeing a wage price spiral. Wage inflation really took off In 21 22 remember there was a big shortage of of labor and now that's just not the case and wage inflation's moderated quite quite a bit.
I think the big story is productivity and I've been talking about this being the roaring 2020s and the similarities with the 1920s is tremendous technological innovation that led to enormous productivity and productivity is very dust. It makes everything better. It makes growth better, inflation lower.
It's a great for corporate profits and it's uh it actually boosts wages relative to prices. Well, maybe that's the half empty view of of AI is that people are are just happy to have their jobs. They're not asking for Well, yeah, I I think AI and on on a net balance is going to be creating jobs. Instead Instead of coders, we need prompters.
I mean, we need people to actually monitor these systems. You can't just kind of leave them on their own and this But at this point um even though we're steady at 4.3% unemployment, you're not seeing a lot of of hiring and therefore you Can people ask for raises right now? I think there's already an indications the labor market is improving.
We've seen the past two two employment numbers have been very strong and Well, I know wage price spiral though. That's what you you're surprised at. again, I think a big difference is the labor market is in equilibrium. Supply is equal to demand, so we're not seeing a lot of upward pressure or down or downward pressure.
Here's the question about jobs that I often think about. So, the the best example of and you we haven't I we haven't talked about this Joe since I I haven't seen you in a week. The best example I think right now about AI creating jobs Yeah. in an industry that people thought that was going to lose jobs is actually radiologists around mammograms.
I don't know if you followed this story. But everybody thought that mammograms were going to be read by computers and radiologists were all going to lose their jobs. Correct. AI has helped make mammograms so much cheaper, more women happily are getting mammograms. As a result, they need more radiologists to actually look at this stuff and communicate back with the patient to explain what's going on.
The question though that I have about that is is that a short-term blip right now until we get to a point where you could use less radiologists to to either communicate it or the people to communicate it or what's going to happen. So in the moment I get it and I go oh that's an interesting example because it's sort of completely antithetical to what people thought, but I don't know what that looks like long-term.
Well, you know what's really odd is everybody knows that coders, software programmers are are losing jobs except for one anomaly here and and that is if you look at indeed job postings for software programmers is going up. So maybe it's there's some software programmers that you don't need anymore and others that you do need.
I think a lot of people are losing jobs you're going to find them pretty rapidly and and we've seen in the latest employment report the duration of unemployment is going down. Continuing claims which we get every single week has been coming down and Julia Richardson though did say last week that the new jobs that are being added are not necessarily great jobs.
That often they're part-time jobs, often they pay less, it's smaller businesses that are hiring. They don't always come with all the benefits of the big companies jobs and and that was just with the last Well, you know a lot of the job creation has been obviously in health care and health care is you know, they pay pretty well there for various kinds of don't you think to yourself that a company that's going to go spend you name the number on you know, sort of redoing all their tech around AI Yeah.
think to themselves I'm only spending this money if I'm going to get it back plus plus or that I'm going to somehow save it in some other way and therefore they have to be thinking that they're going to be reducing a hiring freeze for really since the beginning of last year and I think a lot of companies said, "You know what?
We're We have to figure out how this AI works and what we can do with it." And so they looked all around their firms, which is a great way to increase your productivity, is to actually see where this kind of technology might work. And what they found is that in some instances AI can be used to augment productivity of workers, so you don't have to get rid of workers.
Some areas they did let go of workers, but I think in other areas they concluded, "You know, AI is not really relevant to what we're doing in this division." But again, the the labor market numbers themselves speak to the point that I'm making here. I don't know why everyone And that is things are improving.
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