Bill Ackman Reveals the AI Stock Nobody Sees Coming

요약 보기

Ackman는 IPO 물량 배분 문제와 최근 시장 조정을 언급하며 주가가 회복 중이라고 설명. 현재 시장 밸류에이션은 이익 대비 20~21배 수준으로 역사적 평균(16~17배)보다 높지만, 시가총액 가중 지수의 구성이 과거보다 고품질·고성장 기업 위주라 싸다고 주장. 구체적 최선호 종목은 공개를 거부. AI는 모든 기업에 필수이며 Meta는 광고 수익률 개선으로 긍정적이라고 평가하고 Zuckerberg의 자본 배분 능력을 신뢰.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Every company is an AI company today. If not, you're going to fall behind as mentioned previously. A video with a specific title is not present in the provided source material from the CNBC television feed. While the sources include other segments from the Inside Out conference and various AI discussions, Bill Ackman's specific comments were not captured in these excerpts.

02. the early trading. Well, what we did, I thought I was doing a good thing, which is typical IPO, you know, kind of retail investors get the short stick, right? Kind of well-known institutions get what they want. Yeah. And the small guy gets a fraction. I'm like, you know what? We're going to give the retail and actually it was unusual because a typical close on an IPO is all retail.

03. And they had take [clears throat] 100% of the demand. In our case, it was mostly, you know, 85% institutions, about 15% retail. I gave the retail a full allocation because I thought, you know, let's I want to, you know, democratization of finance, let's help the little guy. And uh and then they took until almost 2:00 p.m.

04. to open the stock. And I think what happened was, in retrospect, someone who put in for a 10,000 shares but only expected to get a 1,000 shares, woke up with 10,000 shares and they're like, "Oh my god, in order to settle the trade, I got to sell this before the end of the day." And so we've had sort of a onslaught of selling.

05. I mean, no one invests $50 to get two securities to sell them at, you know, a discount to that. It just didn't make any sense to me. But I think it was sort of more of a technical kind of factor. And the stocks are kind of regaining their footing and and uh recovering. selling? I mean, you never know who's actually selling, but I I I don't, you know, I think it's mostly the the retail investors who got more a bigger allocation than they thought they would get.

06. So, you you still raised a few billion dollars. Five billion. Five billion dollars. Um what how how long will that take to deploy and how are you thinking of doing that? So, we're deploying it as we speak. Uh actually, we're about 35% deployed. So, we invest in very liquid companies. We're actually, you know, like the prices of where things trade.

07. Uh and we have kind of obviously a plan on how we intend to deploy the capital. You like the prices of where things are. are today. Where stocks are today. I was going to ask you about the overall market and how you're feeling about valuations right now because we've had quite a run-up. You know, interestingly, despite the overall market move, uh I think stocks are still, you know, the companies we like are pretty cheap.

08. Um you know, the when people compare market multiples, you know, today we're maybe something in the low 20s, 20, 21 times earnings, something like this. And while the market average is 16 or 17 times in history, you know, the average company of 20 years ago is very different than the average company of today.

09. I mean, the These are market cap-weighted indices. It used to be really big companies couldn't grow very quickly. Now the biggest companies are among the fastest-growing, you know, high-quality businesses in the world. So, the the mix of the market is much higher quality, much faster growing, much better businesses.

10. So, if you're paying a low 20s multiple on an overall market basis, it it can be cheap. Good deal. What's your highest conviction idea right now? Um I don't know if I could like kind of ranking your children. I rather not point out specific ideas cuz we're in the midst of deploying capital. Okay. I'm going to I'm going to pass on that one for now.

11. But AI trade. I mean, you you're exposed there. You've liked Alphabet, Meta, Uber. Right? Where where where do you First of all, every company is an AI company today. And if you're not, you're going to fall behind. They all say they are. But how do you determine which ones The key is is AI going to disrupt you or is AI going to enhance your business?

12. And I think for the kind of the market leaders, in many cases, AI is a huge asset. You know, Meta, you know, we just talked about much I mean, I've talked to customers of Meta. They're they're earning much higher return on their ads, which obviously means they're going to buy more ads. Obviously very good for Meta.

13. I mean, AI in that case is very powerful, you know, pro-growth uh technology. You're not worried about how much Zuckerberg is is spending. The stock sold off after earnings on that. And and questions about really what that future vision is around AI because they don't have the enterprise cloud business.

14. You know, the the uh I have a lot of confidence in Mark Zuckerberg. He's had been a pretty good excellent allocator of capital over time. Um People questioned his WhatsApp purchase. You go back in time all the various what looked like, you know, expensive outlays generally turned out okay. Yes. And I you know, again, we hear from the customers that they're getting better outcomes from Meta-related advertising.

15. The company talks about this thing earning very attractive returns on investment. You know, we're we like companies that can earn high returns on capital and and are investing