저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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미국 주식시장은 초거품 상태로 50% 이상 폭락 가능성이 높으며 투기주부터 하락이 시작됐다고 주장. 인플레이션이 지속되며 연준이 금리를 더 올릴 것으로 봄. 미국 외 신흥국·저평가 국가가 상대적으로 유리하며 가치주·고품질주 선호, 비트코인은 가치 저장 수단이 아니라고 비판. 인구 감소로 선진국 성장률 둔화 전망.
다듬은 글
the US is not moderately overpriced it is shockingly overpriced I think they'll do pretty well by selling whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bubbles it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist be had done that myself a few decades ago made a fortune and wiped myself out very salutary and I would wish on most of you that you were avoid it's crossed off all the boxes it's done all the things that a Super Bubble typically does and it could uh start its way down anytime and perhaps a month ago it needs a long bull marker and we had 11 years so the longest in history it needs a lot of crazy behavior and we had some of the great crazy behavior of all time I think they'll be telling these stor in 20 years it needs to accelerate at the end of a bubble that's something like three times the average rate of the bull market and it did that from covid on outwards the NASDAQ more than doubled and it it went up at well over three times the normal rate and finally a thing that is unique to the super bubbles the two or three that just keep going and going is that at the end the speculative stops start to peel off and even on the upside for the broad Market they start to go down and that started early last year the super duper specs the worst of them all started to decline and then one by one they fell in and started to drop and As We Said Today something like 40% of all the NASDAQ stops are down over 50% which is pretty amazing since it's only the other day the S&P was at its all-time high nothing is certain in life but I would say that is the beginning of the Burst when the specs that typically go up quite a lot more than the market go down as the market goes up so the S&P went up 25% last year and a lot of the most speculative stocks were already going down that is very rare it happened in 1929 it happened in 1972 before the very big decline then it happened in 2000 before the take right about so you're saying we are at the beginning of a crash I would say it is likely that we are I think it would be unlikely that the market would not come down by 50% from Miss peep the broad Market the S&P and it would be unusual if the specs did not do worse than that the problem is is it slow or is it quick the um stimulus program left a lot lot of money in individual hands for buying the dick and they have been throwing money this year individuals at The Debs they have probably never invested more uh rapidly than they have this year and despite that of course the market is down but they have a lot of money they're pretty well funded corporations many corporations are doing well the economy isn't too bad so this could be turn out to be quite a struggle where slowly but surely the market has to reach adjust to higher and higher rates and higher inflation it will not give up I suspect too easily but we'll fight it out if you look at the real estate market all real estate markets pretty well around the world are uh very very high and if you look at the bond market of course interest rates are incredibly low and bond are incredibly high but when it comes to the stock market rather like 2000 and the tech bubble this is more more an American Affair than anything else outside America the world is merely overpriced H it's often overpriced it's usually not that dangerous in the US however we have an extreme overpricing extreme crazy behavior and I think we're in a rather dangerous Equity bubble so there is a decent chance that Australia the UK and there some fairly reasonably priced countries if they can't down in sympathy they'll come down a lot less and probably rally earlier this bubble in the US is eily similar to the 2000 Tech bubble it's led by the NASDAQ it's led by the specs 2000 the specs unperformed all year and the S&P continued to climb it is just possible that the S&P will rally to a new high I think it is impossible that the spes will so I think the game has started and uh it will play out perhaps rather light the 2000 historically the stock market has hated inflation it crushes price earnings ratios this time uniquely it did not inflation started roared through the roof and the bees continued to arrive nothing like that had happened before and we have a model that goes back to 1925 and there are two factors that determine price earnings ratios or the price level of the market one of them is profit margins of course it loves them and the other is inflation of course it hates it and uh they have worked like a Chun and in 2000 you had for example at the top of the market world record profit margins and uh very little inflation and today we have world record profit margins but we have rather High inflation the market should have dropped starting in the middle of last year had it been following the normal battle plan it did not the market is saying about inflation that it totally ignores it it completely believes the fact that it's uh temporary ephemeral Etc and uh it doesn't appear to be and if that seeps into the market in the usual way it will mercilessly depress the price settings ratios and in the end the said doesn't like to get on the bad side of the administration politically inflation is the average personal industry notices it measures it if anything exaggerates it but even with exaggeration it's painful and politically very very tough on the voting pattern and therefore the administration really wants to do everything it can to get inflation down so it will be discreetly leaning on the set to do what it can there are people that spend their entire lives watching the fed and going into the nuances of quar point points and half points and I do not I am confident that they will move at the stronger end of the range I am confident they will try very hard to make sure that inflation does not become embedded I'm also confident that that will be difficult because we're very short of Labor we're running very scarce and wage rates will start to come through the system in the US increasingly for the next few months that makes it very difficult to control inflation so we will be quite a struggle and the FED will have to raise the rates quite a bit if you have to own US Stocks you should own high quality stocks that are in Good Financial shape because this can always spiral in to something of a financial crisis they often do I would emphasize in general though non US stocks and uh quite a few countries as I said are not that bad Emerging Markets has some overhang problems if the US goes and commodities are high priced it's a mixed blessing at best for them but they're very very cheap and in the end cheapness usually trumps everything else so Emerging Markets some of the cheaper developed countries would be very much better idea than a massive holding of us equities I think it is ending I'm trying to write a paper which is basically the end of the golden ear or Goldilocks and Three h B um everything has been different for the 20 years of the 21st century the PE average not just a little bit higher but 50 6% higher profit margins average 30 35% higher than they had in the previous 50 60 years everything seemed to work out corporations got a lot of political power the taxes on Capital all dropped tax on dividends tax on interest rates tax on capital gains all came down most of the regulatory bodies were somewhat captured by corporations and uh they've had a golden a we've never seen bigger profits the concentration in each industry has increased and the fangs that are remarkable companies are in their own way instant monopol so the monopolistic feature of our economy today and somewhat around the world has increased this is very good for profits it's not so good for grow and the governments are begin to Twitch a bit I don't think they're assets I think they embedded technology that may turn out rather like the internet to be useful Here There and Everywhere and when they are useful and when they're making money in the traditional way then you value it like any other money-making ENT but while they just sit there and they go up in price uh because people are persuaded that they will go up in price it's very much a question of the emperor and his clothes I think uh Bitcoin in particular it does nothing for anybody and is superseded by a whole generation of smarter and more effective cryptocurrencies many of which in their turn do not make money in the traditional way and a few do so I'm sure the idea embedded in cryptocurrency will be around perhaps forever but I'm equally certain that most of the value today as a store of value value is a hoax it is not a story of value everyone can agree that the volatility is massive it goes up and down with the high-risk stocks what is the point of a store of value that trades like a hyperspec I mean this is not the principle golden comparison with several thousand years of practice has been uh boringly stable throughout the last couple of years I should know I earned something for me value has always been you paper what you get so I'm not a great believer in price the book particularly since book as an accounting entry has been incredibly distorted in the last 20 years it used to be a pretty good proxy back in the '90s 870s but not recently what I've always felt is the best definition of value is a dividend discount model that projects earnings into the future discounts them back according to the Quality with high quality companies having a lower discount rate than junky companies and what we brought to on this 40 years ago almost was we studied the regression rate by type of company we tried to work out on a company specific basis what regression rate they were liable to have if they behaved in the normal way given their special characteristics and so we had Microsoft in our value portfolio all the way through the '90s we didn't phase it out until June of 99 we started to slice it out we had 12 monthly slices and by June of 20 really before the crunch came on Microsoft we had gotten rid of it and if you use those models you do see for example that Emerging Markets are absolutely cheap they are relatively as cheap as they have ever been paralleled to one or two other occasions but if anything a little bit even cheaper relatively and you see that they are absolutely not bad at all and um that's the group where the absolute price looks appealing and I can anticipate okay cuz I hear it so often of course Emerging Markets always has a lot of question marks a lot of risk questions a lot of quality questions a lot of currency questions and so on and so forth and it's all true they've always had those things but they are highly Diversified you've got you know 28 countries in the index 40% of that is China and heck China the biggest economy in the world in inflation adjusted dollars considerably bigger than the us growing much just this year Alone by the way they've opened up yet another 10% GDP Gap we're minus 4 and they're plus 6 and they're grinding this out the IMF as you know the rest of the guys think that they're going to have to carry about a third of all the growth on the planet on their shoulders and then you have India who until the recent virus was growing even faster than China and on the cusper becoming a giant economy and interestingly into intellectual capital and Consulting and the use of real brain power and then you have interesting riskier elements Brazil and so on it really is the future in a world where the developed world has had a growth rate that frankly is slowly but surely unraveling for 40 years when I came here the productivity per person hour was about 3% a year and now it's down to one and they'll be lucky to be one in Europe so growth is not what it was and then the increase in the workforce has declined when I got here was 1 a half% a year this year it will be2 in 10 years the us will go negative Japan has been negative in the growth rate of the workforce for 15 to 20 years and Europe is going negative as we sit we're going to have to get used to a GDP growth which is a whole lot less than we thought and there'll be a premium on growth and emerging we'll have a lot higher Topline Revenue that than the developed world we are suffering a baby bust without precedent throughout the world in the developed markets South Korea is a whole lot worse than China at 1.0 fertility rate when 2.1 is replacement I mean it's just hard to get one's brain around that they're losing half the baby Cort every generation which is to say every 30 35 years Italy is 1.4 Japan is 1.4 China is 1.5 1.55 which is terrible the US is 1.70 Italy's in the mix and Hungary is the grow grow rate of Europe in population is going to be very similar to China is perhaps a little bit higher but not enough to count the US will not have a rising Workforce we were highly unlikely to take immigrants sufficient to block a drop off in the baby coat at 1.7 you're running 15% plus below replacement we haven't taken that level of immigrants for years and we don't know going forward how the immigration numbers will hold up but highly unlikely I think to B enough to even get to zero but the us will have a slower rate of decline in the workforce over the next 50 years than Europe and China and of course very much slower than the developed world that becomes one of the more attractive features of the other 60% so China will have a falling Workforce and the other 60% will have a rising Workforce on average that puts them even on that issue way ahead of the developed World stay out of trouble make sure you don't buy expensive markets expensive stocks emphasize value cheapness for what you get hunt around for the cheaper countries hunt around for the cheaper stocks within those countries carry some cash reserves there'll be perhaps some very nice buying opportunities and um whatever you do get rid of this fear of missing out this terrible lust to participate in profit making that comes along at the end of every one of the great bus it is incredibly seductive very hard to resist and I would wish on most of you that you REO
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