저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
Peter Lynch는 과거 역사상 시장은 약 2년마다 10% 조정, 6년마다 25% 하락이 있었다며 하락장을 기회로 본다. 기업 이해와 부채 없는 재무구조를 바탕으로 저가 매수를 권하며, 1987년 폭락 등 자신의 경험을 소개한다. 기업이익은 연 약 8% 성장하므로 증시는 9년마다 두 배가 될 것이라고 주장한다. 다음 3,800포인트 이후 상승 가능성이 높다고 본다. 단기 예측은 하지 않고 장기 투자를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
today we're gaining insights from one of the most successful investors ever Peter Lynch the renowned manager of the Fidelity mellin Fund achieved an impressive annual return of 29% significantly outperforming the stock market for 13 straight years during his tenure he increased the fund size from $18 million to $4 billion he retired early at the age of 46 now Mr Lynch is here to teach us how to earn millions in a stock market crash an essential skill in the current economic climate you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there been 93 years of century this is easy to do the market said 50 declines of 10% or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every 2 years the market Falls 10% we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for Los a lot of money rapid but we we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every 2 years the market Falls 10% of those 50 declines 15 have been 25% or more that's known as a bare market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every 6 years the Market's going to have a 25% decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's going to go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shoot ownn stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these decls they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen it would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility Market if you understand which own one one of the things I find a rule i i a couple rules I want to throw I find useful is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further can it go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record whatever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 lot of people bought on that base say look it's got 135 to 100 it's now 95 what a buy what then a year was 18 and this company with no debt I mean this a company was just so overpriced it went down uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from $26 this year to 16 I said how much l can it go at 16 so I think we bought one of the biggest walks ever on the New York on the America soag exchange of Kaiser Industries at 14 I say you know it's going from 26 to 16 how much low can it go well at 10 I called my mother and said Mom you going to uh live in the sky of Industries I mean how much lower can it go it's from 26 to 10 well it went to six it went to five it went to four it went to three and uh I unfortunate this happen rapidly I would probably be still cading or be working at the stopping shop but I it happened fast so was able to this this compressed at uh and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of kais of aluminum they own 32% of kais of cement they own kais of broadcast and they own kais of sand gravel kais of Engineers they owned Jeep they owned business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's It's Tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling it about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company sign for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they they passed out shares at Ka Smith they passed out shares to Ka lunu they passed out the public shares and Ka of Steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about $50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had got from 26 to 16 and then it came to 10 what would you do when it went to N9 what would you do when it went to eight what would you do when it went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do are you concerned about the volatility in the U financial markets today do you think something needs to be done to reduce it I I I love volatility I I think I remember when uh in 1972 the market went from uh uh down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to 1 they had no debt they never had a restaurant Clos and uh I started buying at 7 but I kept on to it and it went to 1 and uh it was the largest position in melan in 1978 when it's bought out for by $42 by pepsicola and I think it would have gone to 400 if they to buy it out I think volatility is terrific I think it is very I think these callers are very important I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public I think that's not a very good thing but I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the vola down each day is important but the market is going to go up and down of the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25,000 years and some event will come out of left field and uh the market will go down or the market will go up so I volatility will occur markets will continue to have these ups and downs I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand what they own they can own mutual funds try to fure mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basic corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically so corporate profits double about every 9 years the stock market ought to double about every 9 years so I think the next Market's about 3,800 today 3700 I'm pretty convinced the next 3,800 points will be up won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points I don't know which way they go so the market ought to double in the next 8 or n years it ought to double again in the 8 or nine years after that because profits will go up 8% a year and and stocks will follow that's all there is to it October has always been a special month I remember in 198 7 I was very uh you know I was very convinced that Mark was in no was not not in trouble and I didn't worry about things and Carol and I planned this great uh golf vacation to Ireland and we're visit one course and said old house and visit another golf along the west coast of irand play golf and we left on a Thursday night and uh Market went down 55 points that day which was not too good and um the next day we got to Ireland because of the time difference we complet our day and I get back to the hotel and I called in the market had gone down 112 on Friday and I said to Carolyn uh you know I think if the if the market goes down on Monday uh you know we're going to have to go back and uh and so we might we stayed there for the weekend and uh and on Monday the market went down 58 points and my fund went from uh I think 12 billion to 8 billion and uh that gets your attention you know in a two two working days you know I said by the end of this week I'd be uh have no fund now there was a lot I could do I mean here I was on Monday because the market didn't open you know by 12:00 it was in Ireland it was still uh 7:00 in New York so we did spend that day and we uh we did we played around with golf in the morning and then we went somewhere and S of watched the market though deteriorate and uh and uh I did come back there wasn't nothing I could do I mean just uh nothing I could do about it it uh but I think my shareholders they call up and they said what's Lynch doing they say well he's on the sixth hle what he's uh you know he's even par up to now but he's in a trap this could be you know this could be a triple bogey here this could be a could be a big inning and uh I don't I don't think that's exactly what they want to hear so I could do something about this damn thing so I came back home and suff with everybody else and and uh fortunately uh I was very consistent uh my uh the market went down when I ran mellin 13 years the market went down nine times and every time the market went down Mell went down it was 9 for nine and uh you know because it's it's very it's very important this another one of these numbers you have to write down if you put $1,000 in the stock all you can lose is a th000 I've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make 5,000 10,000 20,000 so this business you don't have to be right one out of two times you can be write one out of four it's like TI the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is terrible tragedy so you can make more money on the upside so I just I just rot those out and I'll now slip a coin to tell you where the market will go to 4,000 this year or next year heads means it goes up but it's a two-headed coin uh the mar will go up in the next year that's that's all I ever know about stock you'll be very pleased in 10 20 30 years stocks will beat the hell out of money markets they can beat the hell out of bonds this is important whether you're investing for a 4-year-old a 14-year-old or a 74y old you have to say what am I going to do when the market goes done because I've had audiences like this large audiences now say how many people in the room are short-term investors I've never had anybody ever raise their hand I mean everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down
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