저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 시장 타이밍은 불가능하니 공포를 이기고 장기 보유하라는 주장이다. 역사적 공포 사례 정리: 1930년대 대공황은 주식시장 폭락이 원인이 아니라 연준의 금리 인상이 원인이었고, 1950년대에는 핵전쟁·대공황 공포가 있었지만 10년간 주식시장은 훌륭했다. 과거 위기 사례: 1970년대 유가 4→40달러 때 100달러 전망이 나왔으나 이후 14달러로 하락, 1980년대 LDC 부채·중동·일본 붕괴 등 대폭락 예측도 빗나갔다. 시장 타이밍 불가능성: 1955~1985년 상승분 전부가 월요일 제외 요일에서 나왔고, 1987년 10월 폭락 당시 본인도 방향을 예측하지 못했다고 말한다. 장기 전망: 96년간 10% 이상 하락이 53번, 25% 이상 하락은 15번이었지만 장기적으로 시장은 상승했다. 단기 방향은 모르지만 8년·16년·30년 뒤에는 훨씬 높을 것이라고 본다. 조건/리스크: 젊은 투자자가 위기를 덜 걱정하는 장점이 있고, 나이가 들수록 불안이 커진다는 점을 언급하며 감정 통제의 중요성을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
i think it's very valuable i think while younger people are better investors is that not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children i think if you don't have any kids you got to rent some kids for the weekend you know get a seven-year-old and ask if he knows about the money supply you know how fast he's grown if he knows about the shape of the yield curve is the wrong shape of the yield curve or that we're 48.3 months into the economic recovery and the average recovery is less 52.3 bugs you know ask an eight-year-old if they know about that peter lynch developed the foreign video now we'll get to the important stuff there's always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to dwell in stock market questions whether you have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about intelligence for 90 percent burst networks for antvodlist i grew up i went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s in the decade of the 50s there's this big theory that the depression was caused by stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of americans owned stocks in 29 we had this big time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market with the economy went down the federal reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1850 on we had this was only one of about eight depression since 1850 but people in the people thought the only reason we got the depression was world war two and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a great depression i never understood that adjective in front of depression you know i'd be crummy depression or bad depression but it's a great depression i never quite quite understood that one the uh so people weren't buying stocks in the 50s because they thought another great depression is going to happen in addition people are very scared about nuclear warheads and nuclear war in the 50s people building fallout shelters stock mccann goods there's something about going to vermont building a fallout shelter putting canned goods in it that you don't buy minnesota mining or you don't buy some good i mean just the syllogism just doesn't work out that you're buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer with your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks doesn't and i remember in the 50s i mean i remember literally in classes i was in elementary school in the 50s and they'd come in that have one of these airaid drills somebody yell a hat and come and they blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then i says i don't think this is going to do a lot of good you know the uh but people are worried about a depression in nuclear war in the 50s and then i mean the warheads they couldn't do much damage back in the 50s now one of these stan countries you know these kakistan and zakistan all these stan guys that have spun off these these freeman building spin-offs from them so i've been doing the uh the uh every one of these little countries has enough warheads to blow the world up 88 times right who's built a fallout shelter you know we stopped worrying about it i mean there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade this century the stock market except for the 80s only slightly better these are only slightly better people they expect a lot we don't okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and uh stock market was terrific uh yeah it's the avatars to forty remember that period oil went from four to forty and the export said it was gonna go to a hundred and all the countries of the world gonna go bankrupt and then and the big banks go bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and you know wind up selling pencils and apples you know the uh well i'm going to oil went from 4 to 40 and the experts said it was going to go 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's gonna go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh i remember when the money supply was growing too fast they said we're gonna have a depression that was going too slow we have a depression remember the ldc debt remember the ldc debt all the banks our banks are very smart they lend all their net worth to zimbabwe and botswana and bova salah and all these countries chile a lot of countries they can't pronounce this is chase manhattan and chemical and manufactures hanover these countries weren't doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country ldc debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we're going to have a depression uh then the mideast was going on the world around that one the middle east in the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and the market crashing would have depression then japan was going the word man that one japan was going to have all the assets and they weren't going to buy our bonds and we're gonna have a depression within three years the nikai dao had gone from 40 000 to sixteen thousand the banking system is in trouble and people said japan was going to collapse and we're gonna have a depression i mean people on their prayer list the other day they eliminate crippled children mother teresa they're praying for japan i mean you know it's a country with a 15 savings rate you know it's some bizarre you know commercial real estate global warming uh you know and i think it's the older you get the more nerves you get about these things i think it's very valuable i think while younger people are better investors is they're not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children i think if you don't have any kids you gotta rent some kids for the weekend you know get a seven-year-old and ask if he knows about the money supply you know how fast he's grown asking he knows about the shape of the yield curve is the wrong shape the yield curve or that we're 48.3 months into the economic recovery the average recovery is less 52.3 bugs you know ask an eight-year-old if they know about that eight-year-olds have a very high expectation about the next 20 years that's what you need to do the more you get away from eight year olds the more you away from living rolls the more you start reading these crazy things you read over the weekend from lunch where i'm actually marked investigated then these positives in fact from 1955 to 1985 the stock market went up a grand total of a thousand points but it was down 800 on mondays so it's down it was there for up 1800 on non-mondays it wasn't an accident the stock market went down october the 1987 was a monday people of the weekend become economists in portfolio strategies in fact i knew very well the market was going down in october of 1987 uh dave ellison remembers that my first vacation was going to take in six years and we decided to go to ireland and uh we stayed all these little cottages and play golf and i left on thursday after the close of trademark was down 55 points which wasn't a good start but it was down 55 points and we got over there and because of the time zone we were able to do we want to do and get down to cork and called in the market was down about 118.
i said to carolyn if the market goes down on monday we better go back but we're already here so uh i'll stay for the weekend so as you know the market went down uh 508 on monday so i flew home because of my funding gone i think from 13 billion to 9 billion in two working days and i uh it was uh the trend here is not positive like i could do something about it you know you know yeah but it's time when they call it they wanted to say well what's lingerie doing right now well he's on the tenth hole he's even part on the front nine but you know he's in a trap right now this could be a double bow this could be a quadruple bogey right here could could blow the entire front nine right here you know this is not what they want to hear you know yeah it's peter lynch so i have no idea when the market's gonna go down and uh no idea when it's gonna go up i'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago a while ago it's eight thousand uh i had no idea about this uh very surprisingly but i'll guarantee you the market will be a lot higher in 15 years it'll be a lot higher than 25 years what it's gonna do next one or two years i don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down in palm springs somewhere you know they've made a billion dollars or if they know anything about interest rates there's an interest rate if you can be right five times in a row and ten grand you can have two billion it's not that many people with two billion there's a lot of people predicting these trades did you ever think about that one yeah just five times right around ten grand two billion it's uh if you write sometimes a row you can have the gnp of uh you know the united kingdom you know it's a big number of these uh so i don't worry about that i know we've had 96 years a century and the market's fallen 53 times we've had 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years we have a 10 decline of the 53 declines 15 1 5 have been 25 anymore so 15 and 96 years but once every six years the market falls 25 more is alice anders then we get the beren marked good guinness super seven of them and it's gonna happen i don't care when it's gonna happen i would love to know obviously it'll be very useful to know when it's gonna happen it doesn't make a difference to me corbett probably a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years from now that's what i deal with yeah the language is the
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