저자: DanFitzpatrick · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테슬라는 단기 방향성이 불투명해 매수·공매도 모두 부담스럽고, 인텔은 박스권에 갇혀 있으며, 켈로그는 추세 약화 신호를 주시해야 한다는 진단이다. 테슬라(TSLA): 컨슈머리포트가 차량 품질관리 문제를 지적하며 주가가 하루 22% 급락했다. 진행자는 테슬라가 2.5% 급락 후 다시 반등하는 패턴이 잦아 공매도가 어렵다고 보며, 자신도 공매도를 시도했으나 실패했다고 언급했다. 반대로 롱 포지션도 정당화하기 어렵다고 본다. 5월 4일 실적 발표를 앞두고 주가는 대략 210달러(50일 이동평균선 부근)~290달러 범위에서 움직일 가능성이 있다고 제시했다. 펀더멘털은 나쁘다고 평가하면서도 주가는 펀더멘털이 아닌 차트와 가격대로 봐야 한다고 강조했다. 인텔(INTC): 인력의 11%를 감원하며 클라우드 전환을 내세우고 있으나 진행자는 시장이 이를 크게 신경 쓰지 않는다고 본다. 50일 이동평균선이 200일 이동평균선을 하향 돌파한 약세 신호가 있었고, 이 신호가 나왔을 때는 주가가 이미 크게 하락한 뒤였다고 지적했다. 주가는 31달러 부근에서 박스권에 갇혀 있으며 횡보할 것으로 보고, 배당수익률 3.3%는 매력적이지만 31달러 매수는 다음 주·다음 달에도 가능할 것이라고 언급했다. 방향 예측은 중립에 가깝다. 켈로그(K): 크레이머가 긍정적으로 언급했던 종목이다. 200일(40주) 이동평균선은 상승 중이고 주가는 그 위에 있다. 다만 50일 이동평균선과 고점·저점 추세선을 분석하면 쐐기형(수렴) 패턴이 나타나며, 결국 주가가 흘러내리듯 하락할 가능성이 제기됐다. 진행자는 지지선 이탈보다 고점 상승 추세선을 유지하지 못하는 것이 더 이른 경고 신호라고 강조했다. 50일선 이탈 시에는 매도를 고려해야 한다고 말했다. 배당수익률 2.5%는 매수 동기로 충분하지 않다고 보았다. 전체 관점: 세 종목 모두 명확한 상승·하락 전망보다는 추세 이탈 여부와 주요 가격대를 주시하라는 메시지가 중심이다. 출연자 전망: 테슬라는 방향성이 불확실해 관망이 적절하며, 인텔은 횡보, 켈로그는 추세 약화 시 하락 가능성을 열어둔다.
다듬은 글
I'm Dan Fitzpatrick at stockmarketmentor.com look every night we watch the same shows right shing the buy button the next morning on the stocks you saw last night we're going to look at Tesla Intel and Kelloggs okay first up Tesla Consumer Reports um issued a report today which is what Consumer Reports does uh essentially calling into question quality control at Elon musk's uh company um the SUVs are like not SUV uh doors aren't opening stuff like that and so this guy was saying you know just I mean he wasn't particularly bullish on the quality of the cars Consumer Reports you know they're not talking about the stock price he was just talking about the quality of the cars so that could be a big deal for these guys obviously the stock was down 22% today you know the challenge that I have here is Tesla gets down 2 and a half% a lot and then it just starts moving higher again so you know you see this from time to time I think Tesla is a brutal stock to short I know because I've tried it it hasn't worked out too well for me but it's kind of tough to justify being long here either um particularly since the company you know they report earnings uh in a couple weeks I think it's May 5th no May 4th they report on May 4th so I think the stocks probably going to just kind of jostle around in this range a bit here's what I would suggest if you're a tesone if if you're like a big Tesla fan I'm talking about the stock I think you got a problem on your hands because this stock could easily fall to 210 on the other hand you know and that's where the 50-day moving average is on the other hand though if you're a Tesla bear be careful because this stock could Rock It Up Above 290 and just keep on going it's seriously that kind of stock the stock does not trade on fundamentals that's what I'm trying to tell you seriously don't even look at the fundamentals on Tesla they're horrible every time the company wants to do something it takes on more debt even though it said the last time it wouldn't take on any more debt nobody cares what I want you to do is focus on the stock price focus on the chart listen to this Consumer Report because that really matters if you're going to buy a Tesla but if you're going to buy Tesla stock I say you just be careful because of this earnings number it could be kind of brutal and then you got to wonder about forward guidance okay Intel they're cutting uh 21,000 hang on just a sec we'll get the prices here thanks Warden um they are cutting 11% of their Workforce Now the CEO was uh you know the CEO said basically look um we're transitioning we're going to be powering the cloud okay that's all well and good to say that's fine good for you you're going to power the cloud um I don't think people particularly care um I saw uh uh Tim Seymour that's trying to remember which guy it was saying that the chart looked pretty compelling because the 50-day moving average was about to cross um the 200 day moving average um I'm I'm not not moved and here's why because you could see the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average here and that's a bearish signal well by the time it crossed over the stock was clear down here would have been nice to get that signal up at 35 as opposed to 30 so when a stock is chopping around like this and make no mistake about it this is a volatile volatile stock I don't really care so much about moving averages I just care about price levels and yield and I will tell you this honestly this stock is going nowhere and it's going nowhere slowly pays a 3.3% dividend but if you want to buy the stock at 31 bucks that's great because you'll be able to buy it at 31 bucks next week and next month and probably the month after that if not cheaper the stock is range bound it's in jail um I don't see any reason to be it cellmate next Kellogg now Kramer likes Kellogg he did a big deal on it on Mad Money I like this from a from a um I I can't eat their product um but uh I like the chart those refined carbohydrates aren't good for you but so the 200 day moving average or 40 week moving average is moving higher the stock well above that but you look at the 50-day moving average that's the red line here this is the one that's important and here's the deal a couple things first of all okay I can draw this Channel and say well that's a bearish wedge in other words that still gets higher lows and higher highs but they are converging and you know so at the end ultimately they would meet and then something's got to give typically in this scenario the Stock's going to trickle out like water at the end of a hose and that's going to drift lower so that's one analysis but here's one that I think will help you more and that is the highs look at the highs draw this okay that doesn't work because now now um this last high was higher and this High even higher still so we draw this line here's the point often times the first warning that you get about a stock that's going to reverse is not a break of support that's not what you get you get a failure to establish resistance to establish that channel as continued resistance so I don't want you to think so much about a breakdown here though certainly if the stock Falls below the 50-day moving average that's not a good thing and you're going to want to exit but if this stock does not maintain this trend line here that's an early warning sign not necessarily of a reversal but just of the end of an uptrend and remember uptrends don't have to reverse to downtrends they can just Channel sideways for a while and a 2 and 1/2% yield isn't really enough to move me to want to buy the stock that's not moving higher so watch these highs I think they matter okay I'm Dan Fitzpatrick stockmarketmentor.com I'll see you next time
Comments 0