저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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시장은 미국 경기 약세를 아직 부정하고 있으며, 2월 저점 이후 주가 반등은 연준이 2016년 금리인상을 많이 하지 않을 것이라는 인식 때문이라는 진단. 연준은 경기 약세를 인정하기 싫어 금리인상을 미루고 있으며, 결국 금리인하와 양적완화 재개 가능성이 높다고 전망. 연준의 도움 없이는 주식이 더 오르기 어렵다고 봄. 미국 경제는 역사상 가장 약한 회복이며 소비자는 빈곤하고 부채에 짓눌려 있다고 평가. 저실업률은 실상을 보여주지 못한다고 주장. 향후 연준의 경기 침체 인정 → 금리인하 → 인플레이션 상승 → 달러 붕괴 → 통화위기 → 금리인상 → 금융위기(2008보다 심각) 시나리오를 제시. 금 가격은 1,050~1,280 상승 후 조정 중이며, 1,300 돌파 시 1,450까지 상승 가능. 골드만삭스 등 기관은 여전히 금 약세 입장이라고 지적. 대선 후보로는 Ted Cruz 지지 성향, Gary Johnson 가능성, Trump는 문제 인식은 좋으나 해결책(관세)은 틀렸다고 평가. Jim Iuorio는 금이 1,210~1,260 박스권이라 보고 1,231 매도, 목표 1,215, 손절 1,239를 제시. 주식시장이 위험선호인지 회피인지가 금의 방향을 가르는 핵심이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
live from the NX this is Futures now welcome to the program I'm Jackie deangelus joining me today my favorite tag team do on the floor of the CME we've got Jim urio and Jeff kilberg gentlemen welcome lots to talk about today next stop for oil we've got that big Doha meeting on Sunday what's going to happen there also stocks they're flirting with new all-time highs we're going to take a look at the market and we're also going to talk gold do you want to get in on the pullback but Gentlemen let's start first with the stock discussion because the S&P 500 actually hitting a year-to date high today what's next for stocks as we uh head into this pivotal earnings season Jeff kilberg what do you think well I think it's been Sensational move since February 11th right if we look at the stock market up about 15% and for the last week the trading activity has been a lot churning and consolidating right at this price level so it feels very coil to me but I'm going to go back to February 11th and remember what turned around the stock market that day it was actually a rumor that came to the market they're going to be cutting production or freezing production in crude oil it's been Off to the Races ever since so I think it's time for the stocks have a little bit of a pullback but it does seem very coiled in complacency is represented in the Vick I think if it was going to pull back it would have already it spent about the last several days kind of hovering around these highs we waiting to this we've been waiting to this big meeting right I'm talking stocks here you're talking oil I think they're all cool influences stocks so I guess it's a two-part conversation boom yes of course boom but it's not a one toone comparison here the stocks I think the risk on is the trade they've been stubborn as heck they didn't pull back when it looked like they were going to and now it seems to me like the race is on okay all right let's uh bring in a guest to talk about it one of our favorites that we haven't had on in quite some time Peter Schiff is joining me from Euro Pacific Capital great to have you on as always Peter I want to talk everything with you uh not just gold today so let's start with the markets and follow on the discussion that we had with the gentleman what do you think is going on here well I think the markets are still in denial with respect to the underlying weakness of the US economy but I think the reason the markets have rallied off their February lows is because it's now apparent and it should have been apparent earlier uh but that the FED is not going to be raising interest rates uh many times if at all in 2016 despite comments earlier today from Lockard that he thought the FED might raise rates two or three times this year I really doubt that we're going to get anything more from the FED in the way of rate hikes I still think that we're more likely to get a rate cut okay yeah I'm not going to argue with you definitely the FED taking a position backing off here and uh there are a couple of key opportunities where they will have the chance to act but of course it's an election year as well so people are getting a little bit more skeptical about it um you know basically do you think that 2016 are you sort of writing it off in terms of no fed action Market goes higher well I think there will be some action but it might be an admission that the economy is much weaker than they originally believed and that they're going to come back with more stimulus either a rate cut a combination of a rate cut and relaunching of quantitative easing uh so I think that's what's happening I think absent that I don't think the market does go higher I think the only way the market goes higher is with a lot of help from the FED okay so you think there's going to be a rate cut this year I want to be very clear on that and if so when yeah I I think so but you know the problem is the Fed is trying to walk a fine line because they don't want to admit how weak the economy is when President Obama is trying to elect Hillary Clinton based on the strength of the economy and to cut rates is an admission from the Fed so if don't hike they don't have to admit it right well but the problem is if the markets are so weak if the markets are really tanking I think the only way to stop the decline is going to be with some type of rate cut they're not going to be able to talk their way out of it and so they don't want the markets crashing into the election either so it all depends on where the markets are whether or not we get the rate hike before the election or after if the markets can still man to stay within a few percentage points of their highs then maybe the FED could wait till after the election to have to do it but I think we're in a recession right now and there's a good chance that by the time we get the numbers on the second quarter because we could have a negative first quarter and the second quarter might be even weaker than the first so if we find out by July August that we're in a recession and you know the election is a few months away what is the Fed going to do they may have to do something all right Jim yurio you think we're going a little bit higher from here that's the markets telling you come back at Peter oh no well the the Peter I actually for 80% of what Peter says I completely agree with I think the market could go higher just based on global liquidity not just the fed the the place I draw the line and I want to try to balance this Peter is when I hear you talk to me it seems like you think it's 100% absolute and that you see not any one bright spot anywhere in the economy is that the case is there any one thing you can look at that helps validate your broader argument that says maybe that strong whether it be the consumer you see nothing to write home about anywhere no I think I think the economy in the US is a disaster and I think the the FED is one of the architects of that disaster I'm not letting the administration off the hook there's a lot of things that the president and Congress are doing to interfere with the economy but the FED has been a principal impediment to real economic growth because it hasn't allowed a legitimate restructuring it's been blowing bubbles and preventing uh resources from being re reallocated way they need to be instead keep If the Fed backed off now or backed off at any time in the last six or seven years there would have been uh a you know an absolute implosion that we would have had to come back from that's I mean you believe that too right I mean what else is the Fed supposed to do anytime they've backed off wouldn't we have been in in shambles yes but it would have been a healthy thing process we have to cleanse the economy of all the problems that have been built up the feds the fza cure is well just take more drugs right so you you can stay high you never have to deal with the underlying problems but they keep getting worse you mentioned the consumer earlier the consumer is a mess he's broke he has a lousy job if he's even still in the labor force maybe he has two or three part-time jobs he has no savings he has no home equity CU he's probably renting now and he's buried under a pile of debt and all this is being kept together uh by the fed and it it's just one big illusion and everybody wants to point to these low unemployment rates as if it tells the real story but it doesn't even tell a fraction of what's actually going on if anything it's yeah let me ask you this obviously you know you've been a bear for quite some time now um and and there are a lot of people on the street that agree with you they're sort of just riding along with the market momentum what's going to be the Catalyst that makes the bearish thesis come true remember I haven't been a bear on the stock market I've been a bear on the economy I've been a bear on the dollar now the dollar has risen over the past few years although it just had its worst quarter in 5 years and gold just had its best quarter in 30 years so I think that the corner has been turned and I think the eror is coming out of this dollar bubble but I think that my bearishness on the US economy has been Vindicated I mean look this is the weakest recovery if you want to call it a recovery in history so we haven't had the vibrant recovery that so many people were forecasting four five six years ago so I think I'm already Vindicated on the fact that this hasn't hasn't worked and the only thing that you can point to is the low unemployment rate but if you look at all the other economic data we're getting data today that has never been this bad outside of a recession and in many cases this recovery for most people has been worse than a recession because the average American is poorer today than he was when the recovery began he has lower gone down there's no way to quantify you know the the rate of success or failure of the economy aside from the stock market Peter and the stock market is going higher well the stock market doesn't tell you anything the stock market was going higher right up until the 2001 recession look how great the stock market was doing right before it went over a cliff brings me back to my central question then what's the Catalyst where the shoe drops well again I think what the big catalyst is going to be is the recognition the admission by the FED that the economy is weak again or back in recession and the FED is going to have to cut rates they're going to have to ignore the continuing increase in the in Consumer Price Index so we're going to see Rising inflation a weakening economy the fed's going to be trying to stimulate the Bottom's going to drop out of the dollar then we're going to have a currency crisis and then the FED is going to be forced to raise rates to defend the dollar and this whole house of cards are going to come tumbling down and it's going to be a worst financial crisis in 2008 that is the end game okay let's talk about the dollar and the fed's impact there certainly boosting gold as you mentioned um Gold's had a good run this year up about 16% a little bit of a pullback today on some dollar strength where's the next stop short term let's not talk 5,000 down the line let's talk about in the next month or two well remember a few months back when gold was still well below 1,00 I said on your program that I thought when it got above 1,200 we would trigger some buying and we would quickly run up to 1300 we didn't quite make it there we got just above 1280 and we're now consolidating the big run from 1050 up to 1280 I think we're in a trading range right now 1 12200 on the low side 1280 on the high side side this is normal consolidation after such a big move what's so interesting to me is that none of the gold Bears have really thrown in the towel I mean look at Goldman Sachs they're just as ass sure that Gold's going to collapse now as they were back in December I haven't seen any major brokerage firms put any buy recommendations on any of these gold stocks despite the fact that many have doubled or tripled this year you know they still have buys on financials uh that have had a horrible year but nobody's recommending gold so I still think we're climbing a wall of worry I think think it's early in this new bull market which is really a continuation of the big bull market that began around 1999 2000 so I think once we break out of this consolidation once we clear through 1300 I think we can have a pretty quick move up to 14500 when exactly that's going to be it's hard to say but I think there's a lot of momentum to this move and you know your your Fast Money traders should be buying at the low end of this trading range uh Peter what do you think Goldman's missing about the commodity reality that we've been experiencing well because they're still wetted to the the old narrative they still expect the FED to raise rates three times uh this year they still believe in this phony recovery they still think the dollar is going to go up and they're wrong and you know unfortunately it's taking a lot for them to admit that I think you know at some point they're going to have to stop themselves out of these losing trades I just don't know when but I'm not in any hurry for Goldman to capitulate the longer they stay short gold uh the happier it's going to make me all right one quick question before I let you go obviously an election year the markets are watching very closely are you supporting any in particular well you know I I was a Rand Paul guy he dropped out uh so Ted Cruz is probably the closest ideologically to me and I think if he had the nomination I think he would probably be uh the best candidate the Republicans have nominated since Reagan as far as believing in the Constitution and believing in limited government but I don't know I might end up voting for Gary Johnson he's probably going to be the libertarian candidate again I generally like to vote for what I like not the lesser of two evils so we'll see uh Donald Trump you know he says a lot of good stuff as far as identifying the problems America isn't great and we need to make it great again he talks about the trade deficits but those are a symptom of the problem the problem is big government regulation taxes to fed that's why we have these trade deficits tariffs are not going to solve them they're going to make the problem worse so Trump does a good job of pointing out a lot of the problems but he doesn't have the right Solutions all right Peter shiff always great to have you on we'll see you again soon meantime straight out to Jim urio gold trade what are the levels that you're watching right now and do you think we pull back a little bit more maybe before we reach that 1280 that Peter's talking about I do like I said before I agree with about 80% of what Peter says but he did say we're in a consolidation range that's something I agree with as well I think as long as stock stay stubbornly strong the risk on uh feeling is in the market rates are going up a little bit at least right now I think if you can sell the June contract at 1231 it's a spot to get in short with a Target at 1215 on the downside a stop above let's call it 1239 is where I'd be wrong I think it's going higher Jack I'm going to push back surprise surprise but right now we have two different views on the stock market which is currently making us view gold differently I look at gold as a range trade it's range bound it's been 1210 to 1260 so right now I don't want to fight this thinking the stubbornness is going to continue on the move up so here and now I'm going to push against this trade and more importantly these levels we're kind of in no man's land here I think that this 1208 that's the true technical bottom so 128 something for viewers to consider if you're going to get on G I do agree though that the stock market is the hinge it's risk on or risk off right now all right let me go ahead do the bottom line here we've got a lot to get to and uh we only hit our first trade so far um in terms of the gold trade Jim is selling gold at 1231 he's targeting a move to 1215 each point in this trade worth 100 bucks so he's risking 800 to make double that for
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