저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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결론: 래리 핑크는 단기적으로 연준이 금리 인상을 사실상 보류할 것이며, 경제는 성장이 둔화된 상태에서 정책 의존 대신 재정정책(인프라 투자)이 필요하다고 본다. 연준과 금리 전망: 연준 점도표는 올해 50bp 인상을 가리키지만 시장 선물은 25bp 한 번을 반영한다. 핑크는 연준이 6월 스페인·브렉시트 선거와 2분기 미국 경제, 소비 심리를 본 뒤 움직일 것이므로 올해 최대 25bp, 혹은 동결을 예상한다. 기업 실적과 경제: 1분기 기업 실적은 뚜렷한 약세이며 소비가 위축됐다. 4분기 성장이 매우 부진했고 1분기 성장은 0.6~0.8% 수준으로 제시됐다. 경제는 연준 기대보다 느리게 성장하고 있다. 인플레이션: 일부(특히 고기술 임금) 외에는 인플레이션 증거가 적다. 2017년에는 인플레이션이 나타날 수 있는 시나리오가 있으나 2016년에는 문제가 아니라고 본다. 경기침체 우려: 사모펀드(블랙스톤, KKR, 칼라일)는 향후 2년 내 경기침체를 예상하지만 핑크는 침체와 인플레이션이 함께 오지 않는다고 본다. 정치적 불안(스페인 정부 공백, 브렉시트, 트럼프·샌더스 등 포퓰리즘)이 재정정책 확대를 강제할 것이라는 견해다. 재정정책과 주식시장: 인프라 투자 등 재정 확대가 실현되면 주식시장의 2차 상승, 금리 상승, 은행주 강세, 소재·건설 등 산업재 회복이 나타날 수 있다. 재정 확대가 없으면 주식시장이 약하고 침체 가능성도 있다고 본다. 단, 2016년 주식시장은 괜찮을 것이라 보지만 장기 매력은 단정하지 않는다. 은행주와 저금리: 탱저블 북 대비 6~7배에 거래되는 은행주(씨티그룹, BBVA, 바클레이즈 등)를 선호하는 취지를 밝혔다. 저금리·마이너스금리는 저축자와 보험(연금형 상품)에 부담이며, 금리 정상화가 이들 기관에 유리하다고 본다. 일본·중국: 일본은 마이너스금리가 실패했고 아베노믹스 3번째 화살(구조개혁)이 시작되지 않았다고 본다. 구로다의 추가 완화는 한계라고 평가한다. 중국은 구조 전환 과정에서 올해 성장이 예상보다 나을 수 있으나 부채 버블 위험이 커져 장기 리스크가 존재한다. 버블 붕괴 확률은 약 20%로 본다. 위안화 급격한 평가절하 가능성은 2016년에는 없다고 본다. 연준 의장: 옐런 교체 시 시장에 부정적일 수 있으나 상황 따라 다르다. 재무장관은 금융·제조·정부 경력 등 자격 있는 인물이 적합하다는 입장. 출연자 리스크 요인: 정책 실패(재정 미실행), 부채 버블, 중국 구조전환 실패, 정치 불안이 핵심 리스크로 제시됐다.
다듬은 글
I found an obvious place for us to begin this afternoon the FED reports its statement on monetary policy what do you hope to hear from the central bank I think it's going to be very similar to their last statements in January I think conditions have deteriorated since December but improved since their last statement uh last month um I think they're worried about corporate earnings I think they're seeing um a real slowdown with us companies um you still have the global uncertainties you have uncertainties of brexit so I think they're going to be on pause and they're going to wait and see what happens in the world and how our our economy plays out are you worried about corporate earnings well I think corporate earnings have shown a pronounced weakness and I don't think it should be a surprise um we had a huge slowdown the first two months of the of the year a lot of fear a lot of consumers pulled back um we have an election here in this country where I think there's more fear-mongering than talking about Hope and and and a renew fut renewed future so I think consumers will pull back and I think it's evidence the economy grew at 6/10 or 8/10 of 1% after a very anemic fourth quarter so I think it's all playing out that the economy is just not growing as fast as we expected as as as fast as the FED expect Ed so they're going to be on pause until they see an elevated increase in the economy uh and an elevated increase in corporate earnings well let's talk about that for a moment the dots right the Dot Plot tells us that the fomc still plans to raise rates by 50 basis points this year the market according to Fed funds Futures tells us that we're only going to see one 25 basis point hike Jamie Diamond for what it's worth says he's worried that the FED is going to have to raise rates too quickly to C mat up with inflation what do you think I think there's pockets of inflation especially in the high tech wage area M uh but I think around that there's very little inflation obviously we've seen an increase in Energy prices from the the various uh deep lows I don't see any evidence at this moment for inflation but I could I could paint a scenario why inflation will pick up in 2017 but I I don't think that's an issue for 2016 um and and they have essentially another 7 months to determine that path I would probably be in the camp of 25 at best this year at best and possibly flat yeah I would probably lean more towards a 25 basic Point increase um let's see what happens uh with the Spanish elections in June the brexit elections in June um how the US economy performs in the second quarter and importantly you know what is a consumer's mood uh into the primaries and after the primaries there'll be plenty of time for the FED to act uh so I'm not I think it is appropriate for them to be on pause is the inflationary scenario you see for 2017 the oddson scenario because as you know the biggest private Equity firms I'm talking about Blackstone KKR Carlile are predicting a recession within the next two years a recession well doesn't usually come with inflation I think there's two two very binary options uh outcomes and I don't know what path that will be um I believe and I've been saying this quite quite a bit worldwide recently I believe what has happening in Spain with the lack of government since the elections in November um and they're going to push now the new elections in June so they're going to there's not really um any real government there you have the fear of brexit in the UK we have the phenomenon of new party uh leaders in the in the United States with Donald Trump and and Bernie Sanders and I think all of this is is a is an issue around how many people in these democracies feel like they've been left behind and they're worried about their children's future so I believe all of the all of these elements uh this political instability is going to Force whoever is the leaders of Spain of the UK and the United States we're going to see probably greater emphasis towards fiscal policy and I think this is going to be key and if there was a major increase in fiscal policy and I do believe if the candidates in the United States are are Trump and Clinton I think both candidates will be talking about fiscal policy stimulus uh in the form of infrastructure problem of course is that most of the people who support these candidates whom you speak of whether it be here or in Europe want the government to spend more money if we were to look at the Deb to GDP levels in places like France or in places like Spain spending here's a chart spending more money isn't really an option is it uh and well France definitely uh it's progressively getting worse Spain no but in the UK with its economy and the US if you spent it in infrastructure that will be front loaded at expense but in the back end it it does produce positive GDP through creating jobs creating better Uh u a better and more efficient grid better efficient roads ports airports so you can get a mileage out of it so I believe that's what we need in this country and I believe every politician is going to have to address uh this uncertainty this political uncertainty of you know we have to ask yourself why are we seeing these phenomenons in so many countries and I think that is going to be the narrative after the primaries and I'm speaking with black rocks chairman and CEO Larry fin Larry you were just telling me how you see the economy evolving and frankly it's not a pretty picture but there's this Silver Lining that you're talking about fiscal policy here's what I would like to know if the economy is growing at 2% or less and that's what the FED tells us and that's what pretty much everybody else tells us how constructive can you be in the stock market if we if we see a path towards more fiscal policy and more investing in infrastructure going into 2017 um we could see a second leg of the rally in equities we could see monetary policy changing rapidly um and if that's the case you would see Rising rates faster than we forecast um we would have uh industry that probably have underperformed outperformed you would have Bank stocks doing very well in that scenario you would have many of the commodity companies that were have done very poorly especially you know the cement and all those types of for manufacturing and infrastructure investing you'll see those those types of Industries doing much better that's a big if though what if it doesn't happen if we continue to have what I would call a dependency on monetary policy worldwide I think it's very Grim um what is grim well Grim is we're harming Savers worldwide with low and negative interest rates you've been speaking out about this well I I think PE we've We we forgot why people save they save for their rainy day they save for events the events of buying a house the events of their children's Advanced educations they say for events like retirement um when you have low or negative interest rates it it forces you to save more to get to that necessary pool of assets you need in retirement and I think monetary policy was meant to be a two to threee Gap the bridged the economies and they did a I think you know very I think the central banks were very courageous but I think for governments to be so dependent on monetary policy is a sole means to stimulate the economy to rebuild the economy especially at time when technology is advancing more rapidly it is destroying jobs very rapidly it in our country we're using the Mantra that it's it's global trade that's doing it it's more technology than just global trade so let's put some numbers to Grim what's the bare case if we don't get this fiscal injection if we don't get this infrastructure spending what happens to the stock market what happens to treasuries which are now you know 190 on the 10 year what happens to credit spreads uh we'll have an a very anemic to declining Equity Market it doesn't will we have a recession we may if we see more more fear more hoarding of cash I mean I think the biggest surprise by Central Bank is they talk about hoarding of cash I don't call that hoarding of cash I call it saving because they need to save more because of uh because of low and negative interest rates um we need to understand um that the psychology of retirees and we have aging population the psychology of people who are near retirement is is is fear is fear that they're they're not earning enough to meet the needs of their lifestyle that they so desire you believe though that this fiscal injection is coming so when you mention Bank stocks is that where you see the greatest value in the market well I think Bank stocks um who uh especially the banks that are trading 6.7 of uh of tangible City groups the bvas the Barkley I mean we could go across the world and select some thees um the so I think if we had that type of stimulus that I'm talking about we would have the central banks could take their foot off the pedal it would mean they could modestly raise rates U maybe more at a more accelerated rate and that would be very good for Savers would be very good for financial institutions earnings very good for insurance companies to offer annuities again but that's not happening right now no it's not so tonight right Mr corota and the bank of Japan meeting what on Earth does he do because the last time he doubled down in January going negative it was a mistake right it was the Yen strengthened the Nik sold off 13% It was an outright mistake and that that that was one of my um points of information that gave me this change of views related to fiscal policy monetary policy has run out of Runway and it's so when he tells the government we could still go to half a point negative but keep in mind mind abenomics hasn't even begun we talk about abenomics and we talk about the three arrows in Japan uh uh AB has not even begun his third arrow and that was the whole process of what Japan was trying to do was restimulate the economy through aggressive monetary policy but the second phase the third era but if you're corota what option do you have right now uh corota has to go talk to the Prime Minister and say I you know ran out of Runway I think it's evident he ran out of Runway negative rates is is so in other words Bank of Japan monetary policy no longer works in your opinion I think it has not worked recently and I think it's going to continue to not work and Japan is a great example I me we should be looking what happened in Japan Japan is a nation of Savers most of the savings are in bonds um and as a result of that the Savers are now saving more they're pulling back consumption has not not met the the all the forecast in in Japan and it's a fact because the consumers in Japan are pulling back at the same time Japan's benefiting by all the Chinese who are coming there for for tourist and buying food and other items and still Japan looks like it's going to be zero you know economy with with zero GDP uh so it's failing what about China then if it's these Chinese tourists who are coming to Japan Japan may be benefiting from that China um is putting their foot on the pedal as fast as any economy right now China I think and I've been in China twice so far this year M I think China was I think the Chinese leaders have done a better job in trying to reboot its economy than most leaders of the world um the we're in the fourth year of the shei government 10-year plan it is about reorienting the economy from taking moving it away from an export manufacturing economy to a domestic um uh service oriented economy unfortunately that takes tens of years and it's not without many hiccups and it looked like there was going to be a major Hiccup and there was some very bad communication of the Chinese which led to the market Fall in January and February I think they restabilized their uh their effort related to their messaging and I do believe what's what they're doing now is is doing very aggressive monetary policy in in China right now the banks are lending at at a rate that they haven't done before so indeed in 2016 China is going to look Way Beyond what we thought it would look like economically GDP wise in 2016 it may mean the bubbles bigger for 17 and 18 but in this year especially in light the Chinese are the host of the G20 in September they are going to want to make sure that their economy is a beacon of strength not a beacon of of the bigger the bubble the big of the burst though aren't you afraid of that it could happen it could happen it could happen I would I would first of all the economy is still growing at sixish per.
right it could when you grow at that rate you can navigate out of this problem if the next phase of growth is not by ballooning balance sheet but if not you get the bubble bursting and I'm sure you've seen the estimates that if that were to happen given the levels of bad debt already on bank balance sheets in China that the losses in the Chinese Financial system could be 4X what they were for US Banks during the subprime crisis do you believe that I don't know if it's that large but I do you know I think many of our um hedge funds believed it was going to be event in 2016 they're going to need to devalue and I went out publicly saying that's not going to happen and it's not going to happen in 2016 am I worried about in the manner in which they're um accelerating their economy yes does it mean it there's more potential for a bubble and a burst yes but it may not happen if they navigate this if they reorient if you see more the odds are 20% 20% that the bubble burst so 80% that China makes it yeah but I don't like the 20% yeah but on you know I think 2016 you're going to look back and said I wish I was in China really I think the equity Market will do fine this year I'm not telling you I'm not telling you it's a great long-term trade Larry we talked earlier about political extremism and how it's driving leaders and candidates to make certain decisions and take certain position it's been a tradition in this country for presidents to reappoint Fed chairman even if there's been a change of Party in the White House Reagan did it for vulker Clinton did it twice for Greenspan what's going to happen if there's a republican in the White House is Janet Yellen going to get kicked out I don't know I haven't thought about that um what if she did would that be bad for markets would that be bad for the economy uh it it may be bad depends on who would be the replacement the degree and how this is being messaged but for the sake of stability that's why it was done before um it would probably be thought of as bad keep in mind the transition from greens band to uh uh to banki was considered a frightening moment and then from banki to Yellen it it generally if you get a qualified chairperson it'll end up being fine line and I'm and I and I'm I'm I think uh jenet Yellen has been a fantastic one more quickly Larry before I run out of time given the climate and what we've heard from the candidates can any president right now Republican or Democrat pick a treasury secretary from Finance or Wall Street I would hope whoever is the president they pick the most qualified person whether it's Finance manufacturing or somebody who has a long career in government we need leadership uh more than ever to guide our nation forward
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