저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 비관론이 극에 달해 있어 향후 서프라이즈는 상방일 가능성이 크다는 낙관적 견해. 시장 심리 및 헤드페이크: 지표상 비관론이 과도하며 시장을 떠나려는 사람과 숏 포지션이 모두 많아 반등 여지가 크다고 봄. 6월 저점은 바닥으로 보며, 9월 하락은 7월 반등에 대한 신뢰를 흔들기 위한 헤드페이크로 판단하고 3000 재하락은 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 달러·환율: 달러 약세는 해외 수익 측면에서 매우 긍정적이며, 달러가 실제로 하락하고 있다고 언급. 연준·인플레이션: 이번 CPI는 무난할 것으로 전망. 연준이 75bp 인상을 단행할 것이고 연말까지 추가로 150bp, 12월에 25bp 인상이 예상된다고 시장이 보고 있다고 언급. 실물 주택가격은 하락 중이나 공식 통계에는 늦게 반영된다고 주장. 생산성·경기: 2분기 연속 GDP 마이너스와 생산성 붕괴가 있었으나, 하반기 생산성 회복 시 물가 하방 압력이 되어 연준이 과도하게 긴축할 필요가 줄어든다고 봄. 우크라이나·유럽: 우크라이나 전황이 빠르게 전개되며 합의 가능성이 있고, 유럽이 겨울 대비를 예상보다 잘했다고 평가. 뉴스 해석: 시장이 하락하면 부정적 뉴스를, 상승하면 긍정적 뉴스를 골라 정당화하는 경향이 있다고 지적. 역사적 근거: 최저 심리는 시장 바닥, 최고 낙관 심리는 시장 고점과 일치한다는 역사적 패턴을 제시하며 제시 리버모어 책 등을 인용.
다듬은 글
and we'll talk about inflation in just a second uh professor but just uh simply and i don't expect you to be a market timer necessarily but the head fakes that we're seeing with the market right now what do you think the market is trying to prevent is it trying to prevent people from getting long or is it trying to prevent people from selling well joe honestly i think so much bearishness on all the indicators uh it seems like everyone that wants to be out of the market is out every everyone that wants to be tactical is short and therefore the surprises are going to be on on the upside um i mean the dollar is coming down that that is very very good news potential good news and developments in ukraine although it does you know in certainly indicate more uncertainty looks like we're going to have a pretty decent print on the cpi now that knocks down notwithstanding i do think the fed has decided you know borrowing some extreme news that we are going to go 75 on on this time um more importantly we're going to end up at the end of the year the market thinks another 150 from where we are today that's 75 i guess 50 um and and then another 25 in the december meeting and i think that that should definitely do it because on the ground i don't see prices going up anywhere near certainly the rate that it did the important housing prices actually on the ground housing prices are going down although we will not see those as i've noted before in the official statistics right if you if if you read that book from whenever it was 1920 jesse livermore that that's what you take away from it is that the market constantly tries to do things to to fool you into believing one thing when it's really it's it's true intention is to do the other thing and it's constantly doing that i don't know it's just human nature i think is the way it works so when we hit the june lows uh jeremy and we had that sharp snapback in july most people thought bear market rally and and i i don't know i thought we really had hit the lows then the most recent sell-off that's where you have to decide what is that is that a resumption of the downtrend to 3000 does it go to 3000 the s p or is it really just trying to uh to shake out people that don't really believe we're we're starting a new uptrend and that's kind of what i think it was i think it was trying to shake your faith in that july rally that it would be long lasting i don't think it's a move to new low but i don't know is that do you have the same way i've said that i thought that the june lows are are the lows why don't we remember when you have a fair market you always have what's called a basing period right but okay so it goes up and down and uh and yeah that reinforces the bearishness oh yeah this is just a as you said a head fake uh again we've seen those sentiment indicators become so extremely negative i mean uh and and and really when i take a look at things on the ground in in terms of of even earnings uh you know you know people talk about a recession and we already had two negative quarters of of gdp with collapsing productivity we get any rebound in productivity second half of this year that's further downward pressure on prices which means the fed doesn't have to go to an extreme um so i think the again when everyone is sold the only place uh only the buyers are left uh and and the shorts are exposed so we will certainly see what happens in in on the ground developments but i think the market is is liking the the ecb being more aggressive means less you know the dollar can go down it really has gone down that's very very important in terms of the foreign uh earnings uh developments in ukraine are moving quickly this may mean some sort of settlement going forward it looks like europe maybe has prepared better than we had feared for the winter um uh so you know joe the truth of the matter is we have millions of pieces of news when the market goes down we take from the pile that justifies the negative when the market goes up we take from the pile that justifies uh the positive but i think that the sentiment and the fact that so many people have said you know this is just another head fake bear market rally tells me history the lowest sentiment is at market bottoms just as the highest bullish sentiment is at market tops and this has been a hundred two hundred years as you say going back to to justify liverpool and even earlier
Comments 0