Inflation could be falling far faster than expected, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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결론: 9월 초 약세 속에서도 인플레이션이 예상보다 빠르게 둔화될 수 있어 주식의 긍정적 서프라이즈가 나올 수 있다는 낙관론. 인플레이션 둔화 근거 - 휘발유 가격 하락이 8월 CPI에서 약 0.6%p를 차감할 것으로 봄. - ISM 가격지수가 7~8월 급락해 PPI가 몇 달 내 거의 0%에 근접할 가능성. - CPI 바스켓의 약 42%가 이미 디플레이션 상태. - 인플레이션 스왑 시장은 향후 2개월 디플레이션을 예측. 시장 심리와 연준 관점 - 투자자 포지션은 매우 가볍고 심리는 부정적이라 기술적 개선 시 반등 여지가 있음. - 연준이 금리를 높게 오래 유지한다는 컨센서스는 적절하다고 보지만, 채권시장은 내년 피크 후 인하를 반영 중. - 달러는 강세가 지속될 필요가 없고, 금리가 하락하면 주식 랠리 가능성. 리스크 요인 - 파이프라인 이슈, 실적 전망치 하향 가능성, 연준 회의, 강한 달러, 유가 100달러 부근 및 상승 가능성, 유럽 에너지 우려. - 다만 6월 대비 유가(180→86달러)와 유럽 공급 우려 완화 등 시장이 이미 일부 반영. 밸류에이션 - 10년물 금리 3.2% 수준에서 S&P500 PER 약 35배가 정당화되며, 금리가 2.7%로 내려가면 PER 40배도 가능. - S&P500 PER이 15배까지 가야 한다는 논리에는 동의하지 않음.

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01. stock sinking to start september but there could be a positive surprise in store so says cnbc contributor tom lee of funstrat global advisors with me here at post nine you're always trying to find the positive within the negative some say it's getting harder to do that uh yeah i mean the last few weeks it's been hard to find anyone that uh is positive right i think they've all been uh gone into hibernation early winter there are a few people you know here and there yeah but what allows you to remain as such well i think that it still comes down to our belief that a lot of the pessimism about inflation is anchoring negative sentiment um we know that this is also sort of part of the fed's default view and we're coming into september which is a seasonally tough month but in the past week we've gotten some data that i think really shows inflation could be falling far faster than expected you know one gasoline uh now we as we close that month it might subtract six tenths the ism prices collapsed for the month of ju august and that really points to potentially ppi going to almost zero percent um in a few months and then i think the third thing that's pretty encouraging is if you look at sort of the composition of cpi you know 42 percent of the basket is actually now in outright deflation so i i would say i think there's still positive surprise coming and it's the fact that inflation could cool a lot faster and history shows once it starts breaking it falls very quickly what if the surprise is that uh the fed is more resolute than people want to believe that you know there's a bit of denial going on as to the fed doing what jay pal suggests they will and sticking with it and keeping rates higher for longer and keeping rates higher for a lot longer and a lot higher than people think uh i mean i'd say that that's the consensus view and i think it's appropriate the bond market still is not completely convinced as you know because the bond market is pricing fed funds peaking next year and then some cuts coming and if you look at the inflation swaps market for the next two months the inflation swaps market is forecasting deflation so outright prices falling so i think that it's possible in the next couple months the idea that inflation sticky and the fed has to therefore stay tough is going to be modified by the idea that inflation could be coming down very quickly so what do i do with the other risks because september seems fraught with them we get a great reminder today uh an awful reminder but a big reminder of that with with the pipeline i've got the potential for earnings revisions i have the fed meeting i've got the dollar which remains especially strong i've got oil still hanging around 100 with the propensity perhaps going higher none of that matters uh no they all matter but i think markets need some perspective you know in june people talked about gasoline going to six dollars or seven because people forecast oil going to 180 now we're in september and oil's at 86.

02. the concerns about europe i mean they're still there but as you know just a few months ago people were forecasting much greater shortages and it looks like europe's made some progress filling up and uh i would say just from a market history i know seasonality is tough but we already know investor positioning is actually really light and sentiment's negative so i think as technicals improve the dollar doesn't have to keep going up and if interest rates break i think a lot of these could add up to stocks rallying pretty hard what multiple is justified do you think for the market i think the best way to still judge the pe is to look at the tenure and the 10-year if it's at 3-2 is still a roughly you know 35 p e market i don't know why we would say the s p has to go to 15 times so again i think if the 10-year drifts back down to 2-7 you're talking to 40 pe for the 10 year i'm not sure why the s p p e has to go to 15.