저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 파월 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추려면 경기 악화(해고·기업 도산·신용 부실)가 실제로 나타나야 하며, 시장은 '좋은 뉴스가 나쁜 뉴스'인 국면에 있다. [연준 정책 전망] 파월은 임금 인상이 경제 전반에 퍼지는 것을 가장 우려하며, 이직(잡호핑)이 멈추려면 직원들이 새 일자리를 못 구할 것이라는 공포가 필요하다고 봄. 연준이 원하는 것은 기업 해고와 도산을 통한 노동시장 냉각. [베드배스앤비욘드] 수만 명의 직원과 부족한 현금 상황으로 시장에서 주식을 매도해 자금을 조달 중. 개인투자자(밈 투자자)가 이를 계속 사줄 것이라고 봄. 이 기업의 도산이 상가 공실과 소매업 불안을 키울 것이라고 언급. [핀테크·후불결제·암호화폐] 후불결제(BNPL) 업체의 부실 대출 증가나 스캔들이 연준에 도움이 될 것. 신규 암호화폐 발행과 펌프앤덤프 관행을 비판하며 이들의 붕괴를 긍정적으로 봄. [스팩(SPAC)·벤처캐피털] 스팩과 비공개 벤처캐피털 회사의 붕괴 필요. 실리콘밸리 스타트업의 다운라운드 또는 자금 고갈을 기대. [고가 자산 및 주택·요트] 고가 사치품(140피트 요트, 500만 달러 주택) 가치 하락이 패닉을 일으키고 은행의 대출 축소로 이어질 것으로 봄. [재고 과잉 주문·반도체] 공급 부족기에 기업들이 이중 주문한 재고가 수요 둔화 시 과잉 상태가 되어 물가를 낮출 것. 반도체 파운드리는 본래 수익성이 낮은 사업이라고 언급하며 수요 감소 시 칩 공급 과잉을 예상. [출연자 Q&A 및 기타 종목] 캐나다구스: 1월 매도 후 현재 18달러대, 재매수는 권하지 않음(의류 구매 자체에 부정적). 크라우드스트라이크는 실적 호조 후 하락 여부에 대한 판단은 제시되지 않음. LNG 수출 장기 성장 관련 질문 등이 언급됐으나 구체적 종목 전망은 자막상 불명확. 시장 전반: 금리 인상 지속 가능성을 인정하며 단기 약세 국면을 전제. [리스크] 경기 악화 신호가 나타나기 전까지 연준 긴축이 지속될 수 있으며, 연준이 '고통'을 의도적으로 유도한다는 해석은 방송상의 견해임.
다듬은 글
other teach put this whole thing in context call me 1-800-713 1-800-743cmc or tweet me at jim kramer ever since last friday when fed chairman jay pal decided to ratchet up the rhetoric in his war on inflation he's been pilloried for everything including many things he has no control over whatsoever like the trillions of dollars in spending that congress has decided to authorize with good motives but bad timing maybe that's part of the reason why the averages just keep getting hit the dow falling 280 points s be declining 0.78 now that's like actually itching down 0.56 at one point much uglier but i gotta tell you it is the house of pain out there now there's a lot of good stuff in those spending bills it's just that our overheated economy can't handle such a big influx of cash but even members of the black lung no rainbow coalition have found things to like in the climate bill almost specificially dubbed the inflation reduction act everyone knows our tunnels and bridges need some massive upgrades too and we desperately need to build up domestic semiconductor manufacturing unfortunately all this spending makes powell's job a lot more difficult he can't control congress he can't authorize more immigration which would solve the labor shortage because remember it is a shortage of people to that need to fill jobs we don't have them now i was hoping if the market got hit hard enough we could have a december 2018 moment where powell stopped his aggressive rate hikes after he realized that inflation was under control but this is not 2018.
sure we're enjoying a major uh collapse in so many important commodities there's more availability for pretty much everything and the only real sticking point these days comes down to parts stuck in china or labor shortages that were hard to see coming or certain spikes in periodic price and oil powell's making real progress but he's still got a long way to go yet i keep hearing the palace so far behind the curve they now has to throw us into a nasty recession in order to beat inflation the bears they say he has to raise interest rates 45 and they think it's all his fault if he acted earlier maybe he wouldn't have to bring the pain right now to me that's a total false narrative i think these guys are missing the point entirely that's why tonight i want to walk you through jay's secret playbook or at least my interpretation of a secret playbook because i don't think it really hasn't so you know where we need to see before he'll stop titing maybe just consider this to be kramer's version if he were pal that way it's uh maybe softer nicer to pal parents i want you to hold your children's ears this is a little too graphic needs one of those disclaimers like those who can't handle the word layoffs should turn off their tv set there are a lot of trigger words coming first off pal's most worried about wage inflation because it spreads to the whole economy like wildfire and that means he wants to see an end to the incessant job hopping job hopping is really the operative term here how does he do that people will stop job hopping once they start fearing that they won't be able to find a new job to hop to in other words he needs companies to lay off their workers or even go under to cool down the labor market so why don't we take an example let me pick one i don't know anybody have one hey how about bed bath and be on take that one please bed bath has tens of thousands of employees and not enough cash to pay them or their suppliers without aggressive capital raises that can or could really hurt the stock so they are now selling stock at the market to raise cash stock by the way that they bought back at much higher prices isn't capitalism grand now these guys know there are legions of ill-advised investors the meme freaks or apes as they call themselves and they will keep buying the stock because they don't know anything and the bed bath is selling it is selling the stock in order to crush the shorts short sellers which is all they really care about uh that's the only thing propping this business up i enjoy the battle even as i think that most memesters proudly don't know how to read a balance sheet ignorance is so blissful of them don't you love it from j pal's perspective he uh needs outfits like bed bath to fail no more at the money sales stocks no more meme surf popping things up in fact he wants pretty much anyone with a retail job to be worried that their employer might be the next failure he needs the excess merchandise of bed bath to flood the zone and cause a glut that will hurt the rest of the industry powell can't be this direct though but when he walks through the shopping mall he wants to see not help wanted signs but for red signs and you know what's like the crap paper they put you know in the walls when the store goes under or how about we'll build the suit i always love that like to suit why i mean i have i'm a 40 regular boy that would sure signal the end of this matters though we should create a potemkin wall and have him stroll through it now as the son of the mother who sold lingerie on by the way on the seventh floor the defunct lit brothers and a father who sold gabardines that's a form of pants at the failed gimbals i know how fragile these retail stores can be you can get a real domino effect from one of these guys go cider same thing with restaurants pounding's a big one to i don't know about shrink sink i don't know of course i can't think of a publicly traded restaurant this is poorly run as bed bath and beyond that is the benchmark for mismanagement rob would only by say jcpenney that said there's nothing like one of these new vacant bed bath locations to drag down a whole strip mall it's the easiest way for powell to beat inflation even as the memphis may pull an amc and keep bed bath in business for longer than it deserves second thing that would help powell beat inflation even if he never can admit to it out loud he needs a fintech to collapse for heaven's sake i do ideally one of them buy now pay later places you know we call that when we call that buy now don't pay you know that kind of thing so buddy maybe one with a bitcoin kicker talk about two birds with one stone hey by the way i got a lot of people came to me and they're buying golem and selling old golem uh they're doing an arbitrage and gold and arbitrage those are names of cryptos anyway these buy now pay later companies think that they have the uh ability to lend with impunity and pal needs that impunity to go away now it may take a scandal before this can happen or maybe it'll just take a spike in bad loans but the reverberations would be enormous and unfortunately positive these pseudo banks are a thorn in the side of the fed fintech collapse hey while we're at it i'm sure powell would love to see an end to the creation of new cryptocurrencies like the the ones i just mentioned they're often paired with transparent pump and dump schemes that the sec seems to like they don't do much about it because they embody i writ caveat because they embody the kind of reckless gambling that's a telltale of a sign of an overheated economy financial thuggery it must end this is a no thuggery zone third let's face it pal needs a chain of spax and non-public venture capital firms to go belly up the former is already happening but they're still pumping these things out some outfits back this morning over at the nasdaq and i was like and i thought of pt barnum immediately hey that would be good ptp um we've had an endless job hopping in silicon valley it's time for these startups to have down rounds or run out of funny entirely that would be immense help to pal taylor made taylormade better than better with the ham that's a jersey thing fourth pal has to have some high profile fanning shares run out of money causing a chain reaction fear that expensive trinkets from 140 foot yachts which by the way have five bedrooms to five million dollar homes because they suddenly will be worth less nothing like expensive stuff that you can't sell to stir the pot of panic from everyone else who'll rush the exits you won't be worried about the cost of rent once those dominoes fall don't forget so much of this stuff has been bought with borrowed money that you'll see the banks pulling their horns and you won't be all that worried about lower loan growth finally pals waiting for the pain from all the double ordering in this country to kick in back when we had the shortage all over the place tons of companies double ordered important goods to ensure they'd have enough supply right now for instance the automakers are still scrambling for double-order chips but by the time they get those chips potential car buyers will be too scared to buy or lease then the price on the car lot goes down and the price of the used car goes down and the next thing you know inflation subsides i got a call the other day from someone who wanted to know why taiwan stock wasn't doing better given all the orders it has i had to let them in on the reasons semi-dr foundries are actually an awful business that's why we stopped manufacturing chips in this country i think you'll find out real soon when demand starts falling off why the foundries kept pumping you pumping out new chips here's the bottom line we're now in good news is bad news mode because the fed's not going to stop bringing the pain until we see real deterioration and this is my checklist okay in the economy and a very different landscape from the mall to the store to the house to the yacht and the car lots it's all got to change and as the late great sam cook assured us change is going to come joe in new jersey joe hello mr kramer thank you for taking my call uh i sold canada goose back in january on your recommendation and took some uh nice profits it's trading at around the mid 18 level a share can i buy it back at this level heading into the fall no no not at all i mean not even a chance actually i don't want anyone buying anything has to do with clothes unless you're putting them on themselves that's my new rule right here right now i just said it if you're going to buy clothes make sure you can wear them bump up do i have time for another question that's it we're now on good news is bad news mode because the fed's not going to stop bringing pain until we see real deterioration economy as sam cook said a change is going to cost me money tonight you called in and you stopped me on watson so i'm turning my homework on that hvac company to see if you create an enticing buying opportunity then i've become a big believer in the rise of the liquefied natural gas exports what's the best way to play this long-term trend that's really making money right now i'm gonna give you a few names that i'm watching and crowdstrike fell today after fantastic earnings but is the move really justified i'm gonna get the latest from the company's top brand so you
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